AZ: Rocky Mountian: Brewer leads Goddard by quite a big margin

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Arizona Governor by Rocky Mountian on 2010-07-13

Summary: D: 25%, R: 45%, I: 5%, U: 25%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll is similar to the University of WI poll, I think it should be thrown out.

[Associate Justice PiT]

This poll is similar to the University of WI poll, I think it should be thrown out.

     Given that Rasmussen has been showing Brewer steadily gaining (with their last poll at Brewer +18) & no other credible pollsters have polled this race in months, this poll does not seem that hard to believe. The big problem I see is that this race suffers from a lack of variety in polling firms looking at it.

[Eraserhead]

Racism still works in Arizona.

[nhmagic]

Racism still works in Arizona.

And ignorance is apparently prevalent in New York.  You don't know what the hell you are talking about when it comes to this law.  Wishing and praying that you will be able to legalize a block of 15 million new voters for your party doesn't mean its going to happen and we will fight you hard over this.

[Ronnie]

Racism still works in Arizona.

Will you shed some light on how the immigration law is "racist"?  From what I've heard, it just reinforces national law.

[Holmes]

Racism still works in Arizona.

Will you shed some light on how the immigration law is "racist"?  From what I've heard, it just reinforces national law.

No one cares about that or the stupid "sue your local sheriff's office!" part. It's the profiling illegals part. And no one seems to know what an illegal immigrant looks like. But everyone knows they're brown!

[ajc0918]

Racism still works in Arizona.

Will you shed some light on how the immigration law is "racist"?  From what I've heard, it just reinforces national law.

No one cares about that or the stupid "sue your local sheriff's office!" part. It's the profiling illegals part. And no one seems to know what an illegal immigrant looks like. But everyone knows they're brown!

Are you implying that all illegals are 'brown'? There's plenty of illegal canadians.

[Holmes]

Racism still works in Arizona.

Will you shed some light on how the immigration law is "racist"?  From what I've heard, it just reinforces national law.

No one cares about that or the stupid "sue your local sheriff's office!" part. It's the profiling illegals part. And no one seems to know what an illegal immigrant looks like. But everyone knows they're brown!

Are you implying that all illegals are 'brown'? There's plenty of illegal canadians.

I'm implying that the general public believes all illegals are brown and should be sent back to Mexico.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She used the law to her advantage which worked brilliantly in the primary against Arpio to a lesser extent against Goddard.

[Sam Spade]

Arizona is full of crappy polling companies like Behavior Research Center.  Why?  No clue.

That being said, I guarantee that Brewer is ahead and probably by a pretty nice-sized margine.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She's up between 6 and 12 pts.

[Beet]

And just think, this law could never have existed and Napolitano could still be governor. Only the thought of the 5 major terrorist attacks that were avoided solely due to her genius leadership (and which would not have been avoided under the leadership of any of the 300 million other Americans) makes this worthwhile.

[nhmagic]

And just think, this law could never have existed and Napolitano could still be governor. Only the thought of the 5 major terrorist attacks that were avoided solely due to her genius leadership (and which would not have been avoided under the leadership of any of the 300 million other Americans) makes this worthwhile.

A few things:
1) Nappy was term limited in 2010.
2) If Nappy had not been term limited, she would have been voted out of office anyways because of the terrible fiscal hole she left the state in ($6 billion).
3) The five major terrorist attacks that were avoided were avoided because of normal citizens and local law enforcement.  Nappy has done nothing to avoid an attack.
4) The law generated in the legislature, Brewer only signed & defended it - meaning that the law would have only been delayed until after November and then passed.

[Beet]

And just think, this law could never have existed and Napolitano could still be governor. Only the thought of the 5 major terrorist attacks that were avoided solely due to her genius leadership (and which would not have been avoided under the leadership of any of the 300 million other Americans) makes this worthwhile.

A few things:
1) Nappy was term limited in 2010.
2) If Nappy had not been term limited, she would have been voted out of office anyways because of the terrible fiscal hole she left the state in ($6 billion).
3) The five major terrorist attacks that were avoided were avoided because of normal citizens and local law enforcement.  Nappy has done nothing to avoid an attack.
4) The law generated in the legislature, Brewer only signed & defended it - meaning that the law would have only been delayed until after November and then passed.

LOL @ #3.

As for the rest, pure conjecture. No one knows what would have happened politically in November 2010 but it's a sure bet this law would not be in place.

[Sbane]

And just think, this law could never have existed and Napolitano could still be governor. Only the thought of the 5 major terrorist attacks that were avoided solely due to her genius leadership (and which would not have been avoided under the leadership of any of the 300 million other Americans) makes this worthwhile.

What's so wrong with the AZ bill? I am speaking from a purely political perspective of course. I say Democrats should encourage Republicans to pass more of these laws. Yeah, yeah it's apparently super popular or whatever. But guess what, 4 years from now when the economy has improved and everybody has forgotten about illegals, who do you think is going to remember this law?

[Beet]

And just think, this law could never have existed and Napolitano could still be governor. Only the thought of the 5 major terrorist attacks that were avoided solely due to her genius leadership (and which would not have been avoided under the leadership of any of the 300 million other Americans) makes this worthwhile.

What's so wrong with the AZ bill? I am speaking from a purely political perspective of course. I say Democrats should encourage Republicans to pass more of these laws. Yeah, yeah it's apparently super popular or whatever. But guess what, 4 years from now when the economy has improved and everybody has forgotten about illegals, who do you think is going to remember this law?

That's assuming we return to the stable pitched fight politics of the 1990's and 2000's where neither party has a decisive advantage, and a 15 point shift in the Hispanic vote is decisive. You could be right, but right now we are out in the open field and that seems like a long distance away.

[Sbane]

And just think, this law could never have existed and Napolitano could still be governor. Only the thought of the 5 major terrorist attacks that were avoided solely due to her genius leadership (and which would not have been avoided under the leadership of any of the 300 million other Americans) makes this worthwhile.

What's so wrong with the AZ bill? I am speaking from a purely political perspective of course. I say Democrats should encourage Republicans to pass more of these laws. Yeah, yeah it's apparently super popular or whatever. But guess what, 4 years from now when the economy has improved and everybody has forgotten about illegals, who do you think is going to remember this law?

That's assuming we return to the stable pitched fight politics of the 1990's and 2000's where neither party has a decisive advantage, and a 15 point shift in the Hispanic vote is decisive. You could be right, but right now we are out in the open field and that seems like a long distance away.

You think the Republicans have a decisive advantage right now? You can't just look at 2010 and think it's going to be like that for the next election cycles as well. The economy is in terrible shape right now and the Democrats control everything. It would be odd if the Republicans didn't pick up seats. Of course if they pick up 50-60 seats in the house and take over in the senate, that may signal something deeper than just concern for the economy. Although if there is negative growth in the next couple of quarters....anything might be possible.

As for the Hispanic vote, it's just going to keep rising and rising for at least the next decade or two (in contrast to say Black voters). Even if immigration does go down (which seems likely as of now) many Hispanics are already in the country legally. They will continue to become citizens over the years. Plus Hispanics make up a larger part of the youth vote and almost none of the senior vote, and while they might not be reliable voters, supposed racial profiling is a good motivating factor. Furthermore Hispanics are your typical swing voters. Just look how well Bush did with them (even the pew numbers put it at 58-40 Kerry). And I predict Whitman will also do very well with them (at least by California standards). Pissing off a swing voting demographic, even if they make up just 10% of voters, is not a good long term strategy. And smart Republicans do realize this and are protesting silently. But the AZ legislature and Brewer don't really care because they were facing the race of their lifetimes in 2010. Arizona is in deeper sh**t than California right now, which is really saying something, and shifting the blame from the state government to immigrants was quite brilliant really.

[phk]

And just think, this law could never have existed and Napolitano could still be governor. Only the thought of the 5 major terrorist attacks that were avoided solely due to her genius leadership (and which would not have been avoided under the leadership of any of the 300 million other Americans) makes this worthwhile.

What's so wrong with the AZ bill? I am speaking from a purely political perspective of course. I say Democrats should encourage Republicans to pass more of these laws. Yeah, yeah it's apparently super popular or whatever. But guess what, 4 years from now when the economy has improved and everybody has forgotten about illegals, who do you think is going to remember this law?

That's assuming we return to the stable pitched fight politics of the 1990's and 2000's where neither party has a decisive advantage, and a 15 point shift in the Hispanic vote is decisive. You could be right, but right now we are out in the open field and that seems like a long distance away.

You think the Republicans have a decisive advantage right now? You can't just look at 2010 and think it's going to be like that for the next election cycles as well. The economy is in terrible shape right now and the Democrats control everything. It would be odd if the Republicans didn't pick up seats. Of course if they pick up 50-60 seats in the house and take over in the senate, that may signal something deeper than just concern for the economy. Although if there is negative growth in the next couple of quarters....anything might be possible.

As for the Hispanic vote, it's just going to keep rising and rising for at least the next decade or two (in contrast to say Black voters). Even if immigration does go down (which seems likely as of now) many Hispanics are already in the country legally. They will continue to become citizens over the years. Plus Hispanics make up a larger part of the youth vote and almost none of the senior vote, and while they might not be reliable voters, supposed racial profiling is a good motivating factor. Furthermore Hispanics are your typical swing voters. Just look how well Bush did with them (even the pew numbers put it at 58-40 Kerry). And I predict Whitman will also do very well with them (at least by California standards). Pissing off a swing voting demographic, even if they make up just 10% of voters, is not a good long term strategy. And smart Republicans do realize this and are protesting silently. But the AZ legislature and Brewer don't really care because they were facing the race of their lifetimes in 2010. Arizona is in deeper sh**t than California right now, which is really saying something, and shifting the blame from the state government to immigrants was quite brilliant really.

All this assumes that Hispanics don't become "whitewashed" which is actually one of the big reasons why places like TX, OK became more Republican in the 1990s. In short Hispanic conversions from Catholicism to Protestantism or Mormonism should be a concern for D's.

[Dgov]

Racism still works in Arizona.

No, being tough-on-crime works in Arizona.  National Dems seem to have no freaking clue just how bad crime has gotten in Arizona, and how much illegal immigration has been contributing to that.

In all honesty, I think this will backfire spectacularly for the Democrats.  When the law goes into effect and people see how incredibly innocuous it is (it's almost identical to California state law after all), Dems will have to explain all their race-baiting.

[Sbane]

And just think, this law could never have existed and Napolitano could still be governor. Only the thought of the 5 major terrorist attacks that were avoided solely due to her genius leadership (and which would not have been avoided under the leadership of any of the 300 million other Americans) makes this worthwhile.

What's so wrong with the AZ bill? I am speaking from a purely political perspective of course. I say Democrats should encourage Republicans to pass more of these laws. Yeah, yeah it's apparently super popular or whatever. But guess what, 4 years from now when the economy has improved and everybody has forgotten about illegals, who do you think is going to remember this law?

That's assuming we return to the stable pitched fight politics of the 1990's and 2000's where neither party has a decisive advantage, and a 15 point shift in the Hispanic vote is decisive. You could be right, but right now we are out in the open field and that seems like a long distance away.

You think the Republicans have a decisive advantage right now? You can't just look at 2010 and think it's going to be like that for the next election cycles as well. The economy is in terrible shape right now and the Democrats control everything. It would be odd if the Republicans didn't pick up seats. Of course if they pick up 50-60 seats in the house and take over in the senate, that may signal something deeper than just concern for the economy. Although if there is negative growth in the next couple of quarters....anything might be possible.

As for the Hispanic vote, it's just going to keep rising and rising for at least the next decade or two (in contrast to say Black voters). Even if immigration does go down (which seems likely as of now) many Hispanics are already in the country legally. They will continue to become citizens over the years. Plus Hispanics make up a larger part of the youth vote and almost none of the senior vote, and while they might not be reliable voters, supposed racial profiling is a good motivating factor. Furthermore Hispanics are your typical swing voters. Just look how well Bush did with them (even the pew numbers put it at 58-40 Kerry). And I predict Whitman will also do very well with them (at least by California standards). Pissing off a swing voting demographic, even if they make up just 10% of voters, is not a good long term strategy. And smart Republicans do realize this and are protesting silently. But the AZ legislature and Brewer don't really care because they were facing the race of their lifetimes in 2010. Arizona is in deeper sh**t than California right now, which is really saying something, and shifting the blame from the state government to immigrants was quite brilliant really.

All this assumes that Hispanics don't become "whitewashed" which is actually one of the big reasons why places like TX, OK became more Republican in the 1990s.

Oh I expect that too but if the Republican party keeps up it's ways.....

Anyways Republicans will learn sooner or later. And then Hispanics should be voting much more Republican. Actually in 2004, if you took into account income/class differences, I think you would find that Hispanics didn't vote that much differently than whites.

Also I don't think mass conversions are going to happen outside the bible belt. But of course a lot of the largest growth in Hispanics is happening in the south, so who knows.

[phk]

And just think, this law could never have existed and Napolitano could still be governor. Only the thought of the 5 major terrorist attacks that were avoided solely due to her genius leadership (and which would not have been avoided under the leadership of any of the 300 million other Americans) makes this worthwhile.

What's so wrong with the AZ bill? I am speaking from a purely political perspective of course. I say Democrats should encourage Republicans to pass more of these laws. Yeah, yeah it's apparently super popular or whatever. But guess what, 4 years from now when the economy has improved and everybody has forgotten about illegals, who do you think is going to remember this law?

That's assuming we return to the stable pitched fight politics of the 1990's and 2000's where neither party has a decisive advantage, and a 15 point shift in the Hispanic vote is decisive. You could be right, but right now we are out in the open field and that seems like a long distance away.

You think the Republicans have a decisive advantage right now? You can't just look at 2010 and think it's going to be like that for the next election cycles as well. The economy is in terrible shape right now and the Democrats control everything. It would be odd if the Republicans didn't pick up seats. Of course if they pick up 50-60 seats in the house and take over in the senate, that may signal something deeper than just concern for the economy. Although if there is negative growth in the next couple of quarters....anything might be possible.

As for the Hispanic vote, it's just going to keep rising and rising for at least the next decade or two (in contrast to say Black voters). Even if immigration does go down (which seems likely as of now) many Hispanics are already in the country legally. They will continue to become citizens over the years. Plus Hispanics make up a larger part of the youth vote and almost none of the senior vote, and while they might not be reliable voters, supposed racial profiling is a good motivating factor. Furthermore Hispanics are your typical swing voters. Just look how well Bush did with them (even the pew numbers put it at 58-40 Kerry). And I predict Whitman will also do very well with them (at least by California standards). Pissing off a swing voting demographic, even if they make up just 10% of voters, is not a good long term strategy. And smart Republicans do realize this and are protesting silently. But the AZ legislature and Brewer don't really care because they were facing the race of their lifetimes in 2010. Arizona is in deeper sh**t than California right now, which is really saying something, and shifting the blame from the state government to immigrants was quite brilliant really.

All this assumes that Hispanics don't become "whitewashed" which is actually one of the big reasons why places like TX, OK became more Republican in the 1990s.

Oh I expect that too but if the Republican party keeps up it's ways.....

Anyways Republicans will learn sooner or later. And then Hispanics should be voting much more Republican. Actually in 2004, if you took into account income/class differences, I think you would find that Hispanics didn't vote that much differently than whites.

Don't like 51% of AZ Hispanics actually support the AZ law?

Hispanics are already like 1/3 Protestant and Mormon.

[Dgov]

All this assumes that Hispanics don't become "whitewashed" which is actually one of the big reasons why places like TX, OK became more Republican in the 1990s. In short Hispanic conversions from Catholicism to Protestantism or Mormonism should be a concern for D's.

I keep saying--As Hispanics become more naturalized and suburbanized, they'll start voting Republican.  They are following almost exactly the voting patterns of the Southern and Eastern European immigrants that came to the US in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

[Sbane]

And just think, this law could never have existed and Napolitano could still be governor. Only the thought of the 5 major terrorist attacks that were avoided solely due to her genius leadership (and which would not have been avoided under the leadership of any of the 300 million other Americans) makes this worthwhile.

What's so wrong with the AZ bill? I am speaking from a purely political perspective of course. I say Democrats should encourage Republicans to pass more of these laws. Yeah, yeah it's apparently super popular or whatever. But guess what, 4 years from now when the economy has improved and everybody has forgotten about illegals, who do you think is going to remember this law?

That's assuming we return to the stable pitched fight politics of the 1990's and 2000's where neither party has a decisive advantage, and a 15 point shift in the Hispanic vote is decisive. You could be right, but right now we are out in the open field and that seems like a long distance away.

You think the Republicans have a decisive advantage right now? You can't just look at 2010 and think it's going to be like that for the next election cycles as well. The economy is in terrible shape right now and the Democrats control everything. It would be odd if the Republicans didn't pick up seats. Of course if they pick up 50-60 seats in the house and take over in the senate, that may signal something deeper than just concern for the economy. Although if there is negative growth in the next couple of quarters....anything might be possible.

As for the Hispanic vote, it's just going to keep rising and rising for at least the next decade or two (in contrast to say Black voters). Even if immigration does go down (which seems likely as of now) many Hispanics are already in the country legally. They will continue to become citizens over the years. Plus Hispanics make up a larger part of the youth vote and almost none of the senior vote, and while they might not be reliable voters, supposed racial profiling is a good motivating factor. Furthermore Hispanics are your typical swing voters. Just look how well Bush did with them (even the pew numbers put it at 58-40 Kerry). And I predict Whitman will also do very well with them (at least by California standards). Pissing off a swing voting demographic, even if they make up just 10% of voters, is not a good long term strategy. And smart Republicans do realize this and are protesting silently. But the AZ legislature and Brewer don't really care because they were facing the race of their lifetimes in 2010. Arizona is in deeper sh**t than California right now, which is really saying something, and shifting the blame from the state government to immigrants was quite brilliant really.

All this assumes that Hispanics don't become "whitewashed" which is actually one of the big reasons why places like TX, OK became more Republican in the 1990s.

Oh I expect that too but if the Republican party keeps up it's ways.....

Anyways Republicans will learn sooner or later. And then Hispanics should be voting much more Republican. Actually in 2004, if you took into account income/class differences, I think you would find that Hispanics didn't vote that much differently than whites.

Don't like 51% of AZ Hispanics actually support the AZ law?

And I would like to sell you some beachfront property in Blythe,CA.

[Dgov]

Don't like 51% of AZ Hispanics actually support the AZ law?

Hispanics are already like 1/3 Protestant and Mormon.

Not that I'm aware of, but I know Arizona Democrats support the law, at least in plurality.  Arizona Residents also support it about 70-25, which suggests that at least a significant portion of AZ Hispanics support it.