Kerry +8 in Illinois (Mason-Dixon)

[The Vorlon]

http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=186

One more data point as we try to build a "national" picture..

Mason Dixon - an A+ polling firm.  
Their sample size of 600 (+/- 4.0% 19 times out of 20) is a tad smallish - other than that an excellent firm.

Gore carried Illinois by 12.01% in 2000, so Bush down 'only" 8 is actually kinda/sorta good news for the GOP if it portends for a national trend... or it could just be the margin of error of the poll...

Illinois is highly unlikely to be a true battle ground state - if this state ever truly gets into play Bush is looking at a huge landslide..

One more data point on the map...

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=186

One more data point as we try to build a "national" picture..

Mason Dixon - an A+ polling firm.  
Their sample size of 600 (+/- 4.0% 19 times out of 20) is a tad smallish - other than that an excellent firm.

Gore carried Illinois by 12.01% in 2000, so Bush down 'only" is actually kinda/sorta good news if for the GOP if it portends for a national trend... or it could just be the margin of error of the poll...

Illinois is highly unlikely to be a true battle ground state - if this state ever truly gets into play Bush is looking at a huge landslide..

One more data point on the map...

Why is Illinois so solidly Dem?  It surrounded by MI, IA, WI, and MN.  All can be considered swing states (MI to a lesser extant, i think its reliable Dem terriory) except Illinois.  Chicago i guess?

[Gustaf]

http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=186

One more data point as we try to build a "national" picture..

Mason Dixon - an A+ polling firm.  
Their sample size of 600 (+/- 4.0% 19 times out of 20) is a tad smallish - other than that an excellent firm.

Gore carried Illinois by 12.01% in 2000, so Bush down 'only" is actually kinda/sorta good news if for the GOP if it portends for a national trend... or it could just be the margin of error of the poll...

Illinois is highly unlikely to be a true battle ground state - if this state ever truly gets into play Bush is looking at a huge landslide..

One more data point on the map...

Why is Illinois so solidly Dem?  It surrounded by MI, IA, WI, and MN.  All can be considered swing states (MI to a lesser extant, i think its reliable Dem terriory) except Illinois.  Chicago i guess?

You might as well ask why Indiana is so solidly Rep...that's actually worse, since Illinois at least used to be a swing state, but isn't any more.

[CTguy]

Some of us were having the discussion on another board about undecided voters and how they will probably break for Kerry.  So given the fact that more than 10% of voters are undecided in that poll, even if they break at around the same ratio as other voters in the poll, that should add a couple %age points margin to Kerry's lead.  So Kerry is probably set to win Illinois by about the same margin of 12% as Gore did in 2000.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=186

One more data point as we try to build a "national" picture..

Mason Dixon - an A+ polling firm.  
Their sample size of 600 (+/- 4.0% 19 times out of 20) is a tad smallish - other than that an excellent firm.

Gore carried Illinois by 12.01% in 2000, so Bush down 'only" is actually kinda/sorta good news if for the GOP if it portends for a national trend... or it could just be the margin of error of the poll...

Illinois is highly unlikely to be a true battle ground state - if this state ever truly gets into play Bush is looking at a huge landslide..

One more data point on the map...

Why is Illinois so solidly Dem?  It surrounded by MI, IA, WI, and MN.  All can be considered swing states (MI to a lesser extant, i think its reliable Dem terriory) except Illinois.  Chicago i guess?

You might as well ask why Indiana is so solidly Rep...that's actually worse, since Illinois at least used to be a swing state, but isn't any more.

Why IS INdiana the way it is?  : P

[zachman]

Indiana is the New Hampshire of the Great Lakes States.

As for the poll, other polls in Illinois have indicated a comparable lead for Kerry to 2000, so I will dismiss this single result.

[Gustaf]

http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=186

One more data point as we try to build a "national" picture..

Mason Dixon - an A+ polling firm.  
Their sample size of 600 (+/- 4.0% 19 times out of 20) is a tad smallish - other than that an excellent firm.

Gore carried Illinois by 12.01% in 2000, so Bush down 'only" is actually kinda/sorta good news if for the GOP if it portends for a national trend... or it could just be the margin of error of the poll...

Illinois is highly unlikely to be a true battle ground state - if this state ever truly gets into play Bush is looking at a huge landslide..

One more data point on the map...

Why is Illinois so solidly Dem?  It surrounded by MI, IA, WI, and MN.  All can be considered swing states (MI to a lesser extant, i think its reliable Dem terriory) except Illinois.  Chicago i guess?

You might as well ask why Indiana is so solidly Rep...that's actually worse, since Illinois at least used to be a swing state, but isn't any more.

Why IS INdiana the way it is?  : P

You tell me, it's your country.

[California Dreamer]

Both parties have already targeted the swing states. Bush Cheney, Kerry and the dem leaning 527's are running ads in only 16 states.

If Dem states like Illinois, New York or California come into play then Kerry has already lost. The same would be said if Texas, Georgia or Utah come into play for Kerry.

[opebo]

http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=186

One more data point as we try to build a "national" picture..

Mason Dixon - an A+ polling firm.  
Their sample size of 600 (+/- 4.0% 19 times out of 20) is a tad smallish - other than that an excellent firm.

Gore carried Illinois by 12.01% in 2000, so Bush down 'only" is actually kinda/sorta good news if for the GOP if it portends for a national trend... or it could just be the margin of error of the poll...

Illinois is highly unlikely to be a true battle ground state - if this state ever truly gets into play Bush is looking at a huge landslide..

One more data point on the map...

Why is Illinois so solidly Dem?  It surrounded by MI, IA, WI, and MN.  All can be considered swing states (MI to a lesser extant, i think its reliable Dem terriory) except Illinois.  Chicago i guess?

I grew up in St Louis right across the border - a lot of downstate Illinois is fairly Republican, but near St. Louis its Dem.  Chicago is of course mostly Dem due to minorities, unions, and rich liberals.

[opebo]

Why IS INdiana the way it is?  : P

Indiana is similar to non-urban downstate Illinois, and West/Central Ohio, and Missouri minus St Louis.  Basically its a state that happens to have only one big city, and its an unusually Republican city.  You see the same phenomenon in OH.  Southern Indiana is similar to KY, and is in a way almost Southern - very, very conservative.

[CTguy]

It seems like you can predict how states will vote based on how many urban centers they have.  That's why I think Nevada is going to be even closer than 2004 with the Las Vegas metro area growing so rapidly.  

[angus]

Generally, Connecticut is an obvious exception though.  As is Texas.

[zachman]

Texas has a bunch of everything, but the majority should be identified as Southern.

[CTguy]

How is Connecticut an exception?

[angus]

I was simply pointing out two obvious counterexamples.  TX has three of the ten most populous cities in the nation, according to the 2000 census, while CT has zero.  I'm not saying the suggested Rule-of-Thumb is total baloney.

[zachman]

CT is probably the most partisan state in the union.

[12th Doctor]

http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=186

One more data point as we try to build a "national" picture..

Mason Dixon - an A+ polling firm.  
Their sample size of 600 (+/- 4.0% 19 times out of 20) is a tad smallish - other than that an excellent firm.

Gore carried Illinois by 12.01% in 2000, so Bush down 'only" is actually kinda/sorta good news if for the GOP if it portends for a national trend... or it could just be the margin of error of the poll...

Illinois is highly unlikely to be a true battle ground state - if this state ever truly gets into play Bush is looking at a huge landslide..

One more data point on the map...

Why is Illinois so solidly Dem?  It surrounded by MI, IA, WI, and MN.  All can be considered swing states (MI to a lesser extant, i think its reliable Dem terriory) except Illinois.  Chicago i guess?

Exactly.

[CTguy]

Oh I see what you mean,

I think also though that the general metropolitan area is a factor.  For example, Connecticut's most populous county is within the NYC metro area and the other end of the state is within the Boston metro area.  So even though NYC is not in the state, much of the population has migrated from the city.

But I do agree big-time with the Texas example.

[CTguy]

CT is probably the most partisan state in the union.

CT?  I thought it was Massachusetts!

[angus]

No, that'd be UTAH.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

CT like Jersey.  South Jersey is in the Philadelphia area, North in the NYC area.  

Kinda wish Jersey had its own area : (

At least we got the shore!  : D  Averages more visitors than any other place in the nation annually.  

[zachman]

The Republicans in Connecticut are consistent on a national level, and would probably stay in the party no matter how non-Connectican the nominee is. The same thing is true with the Democrats there.

[Demrepdan]

You might as well ask why Indiana is so solidly Rep...that's actually worse, since Illinois at least used to be a swing state, but isn't any more.

Indiana has voted Republican since 1968.....Illinois voted Republican since 1968 except in 1992, 1996, and 2000. In other words.....there were SIX elections in which Illinois voted Republican....and only THREE where it voted Demcratic. I still consider Illinois a swing state......you don't vote Republican 2/3rds of the time....and then be considered SOLIDLY Democratic just because you voted for the Democrat the other 1/3.

[agcatter]

I'm curious.  Isn't Illinois outside of Chicago a lot like Indiana in voting patterns with the difference being the overwhelming Democratic vote in Chicago?

[minionofmidas]

Illinois outside Chicago has a Republican majority but a number of quite solidly Democratic areas as well. The outer Chicago suburbs are heavily Republican, however. (But trending Dem). So I guess if you'd removed Cook County but not the other suburbs it'd be quite similar to Indiana in results, but if you go only by rural Illinois, it'd be to the left of IN.