LA-02: Market Research Insight: Cao up big in internal poll?

[Rowan]

LA-02(Market Research Insight)

Cao(R-Inc): 51%
Richmond(D): 26%

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/07/joseph_cao_poll.php

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It was taken over Memorial Day weekend. That seems a little unwise to me. I also somehow doubt Cao will be winning black voters.

[Associate Justice PiT]

It was taken over Memorial Day weekend. That seems a little unwise to me. I also somehow doubt Cao will be winning black voters.

     I thought polling over the summer & holidays generated more pro-Democratic numbers, actually. Either way, I am pretty sure that Cao is doing nowhere close to this well. Just winning would be miraculous on his part, let alone winning by such a landslide margin.

[ajc0918]

Well, this bring me hope. I'd really like to see Cao stay, even if this poll is a little off, I doubt it's off 25 points so Cao is still leading by a good amount.

Cao 2010!

Oh and against state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson, who annoucned last week she wouldn't run is performing better in the poll as she is only behind 49%-30%. Also, the article talks about how Cao is a minority and how his accomplishments help bridge party lines and that's how he is getting strong African American votes.

[minionofmidas]

Whatever that says about the poll (and somehow I find a big Cao win not actually less believable than a 2008 repeat) the article was written on crack.

[Lunar]

No.

[Torie]

It is a very strange election cycle. That poll out of California, where persons of color and whites were maybe only about 15% apart, with the Carly and Meg in the lead overall, from SUSA, a highly creditable polling outfit, suggests that economic angst is trumping other stuff, in a way that potentially it has "never" done before. And maybe that is a sign of progress in the sense that racial and such divides are at least in some places, losing some of its heretofore saliency.

[Vepres]

It is a very strange election cycle. That poll out of California, where persons of color and whites were maybe only about 15% apart, with the Carly and Meg in the lead overall, from SUSA, a highly creditable polling outfit, suggests that economic angst is trumping other stuff, in a way that potentially it has "never" done before. And maybe that is a sign of progress in the sense that racial and such divides are at least in some places, losing some of its heretofore saliency.

The election of a black President probably lowered the importance of racial issues in the minds of African-Americans as well. Just sayin'...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It is a very strange election cycle. That poll out of California, where persons of color and whites were maybe only about 15% apart, with the Carly and Meg in the lead overall, from SUSA, a highly creditable polling outfit, suggests that economic angst is trumping other stuff, in a way that potentially it has "never" done before. And maybe that is a sign of progress in the sense that racial and such divides are at least in some places, losing some of its heretofore saliency.

SUSA's crosstabs are notoriously unreliable. They showed McDonnell in Virginia getting 15-20% of the black vote, when in reality he got about 5%.

[Eraserhead]

LA-02(Market Research Insight)

Cao(R-Inc): 51%
Richmond(D): 26%

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/07/joseph_cao_poll.php

Somebody call in the lollercopter.