CA: SUSA: Carly leads Boxer

[Rowan]

California Senate(SUSA)

Fiorina(R): 47%
Boxer(D-Inc): 45%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollPrint.aspx?g=d525bd62-80d2-4884-86a1-8c48ad920150&d=0

[ajc0918]

Yeahhhh Go Carly!

[SvenssonRS]

Buying the election. It works every time.

...then again, I'm not complaining about the prospect of having that hopeless moron Boxer given the boot.

[Holmes]

Is California like the forbidden fruit for Republicans?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Probably the best poll I've seen for a Republican Senate candidate in California... like, ever.

[SvenssonRS]

Probably the best poll I've seen for a Republican Senate candidate in California... like, ever.

Well, there was that one that showed Campbell defeating Boxer by 7%. Doesn't really matter much now that Fiorina bought her way through the primary, but still.

[sg0508]

It's probably a bad poll.  The GOP may be overrepresented.

Wait until the next few polls.  I still this race turns out like 1998, relatively close and then the Democrats come home and Boxer breaks it open late.  Fiorina is too conservative for CA and thus, Boxer will use that like she does every time.

[Lunar]

Yikes, that's a good poll for the GOP.

Tend to agree with sg0508 though that this seat will be like Charlie Brown & the football as long as the GOP refuses to nominate a moderate.  Boxer knows what she's doing and hasn't spent money yet.

[Eraserhead]

Probably the best poll I've seen for a Republican Senate candidate in California... like, ever.

Pretty amazing considering how unlikeable their candidate is.

[xavier110]

Also, as with the Brown/Whitman poll, the GOP isn't getting a 1/3 of the black vote.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama has a 40% approval rating in that poll. Obama hasn't done much for California. That's got to be hurting Boxer.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Also, as with the Brown/Whitman poll, the GOP isn't getting a 1/3 of the black vote.

Keep in mind that with a small subsample such as with blacks, the margin of error is much higher then that of the overall poll. SurveyUSA is great with the headline numbers but there subsamples sometimes are a little weird.

[Torie]

It looks like a good sample to me, but the GOP candidates are doing fantastic with voters of color. I mean Carly and Whitman are not really doing that great with white voters really. If that holds, it will be a psephological earthquake.

[Free Palestine]

As much as I dislike interventionist Israel-cheerleaders like Fiorina, she'd be a lot better than Boxer.

[Vepres]

Obama hasn't done much for AmericaCalifornia.

Fixed

[cinyc]

Also, as with the Brown/Whitman poll, the GOP isn't getting a 1/3 of the black vote.

Keep in mind that with a small subsample such as with blacks, the margin of error is much higher then that of the overall poll. SurveyUSA is great with the headline numbers but there subsamples sometimes are a little weird.

SUSA's subsamples should sometimes be a little weird every now and again, due to the very high MoE.  That they do tells me that SUSA isn't faking its polls.

[Lunar]

Indeed, every poll should at least have one weird subsample outside of the MoE of even that 200 person subsample, supposing the poll has a dozen or so subsamples at 5+% MoE each

Ridiculous subsamples, as odd as it may sound, can sometimes be the hallmark of an authentically well-done poll!  The idea is for the law of averages to balance out these samples of 10% or whatevsky of the overall poll, and for some samples to be weirdly pro-Democrat while others are weirdly pro-Republican while viewed in strict isolation, I thnk

And while I'm not familiar with the polling electorate in CA, despite growing up there, it's possible that minority voters [possibly partially for socioeconomic reasons] may not be tuned into, and have formed opinions on, this particular race as much as other voters at this point in early July, which could slightly distort the margins taken as a snapshot at this stage -- if those who respond "undecided" actually have a strong bias towards one candidate or the other when push comes to shove in November, then the polling results can change quite a bit, yaddamean?

[Ronnie]

Yaaaaaaaaaaay!!!!

Go Carly!

[Beet]

Ouch, this is bad. I hoped at least the Dems would be able to hold CA-Sen.
The key Senate races this year will be CA-Sen, WA-Sen, IL-Sen, and WI-Sen.

[Ronnie]

Ouch, this is bad. I hoped at least the Dems would be able to hold CA-Sen.
The key Senate races this year will be CA-Sen, WA-Sen, IL-Sen, and WI-Sen.

What about Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado?

[Beet]

Ouch, this is bad. I hoped at least the Dems would be able to hold CA-Sen.
The key Senate races this year will be CA-Sen, WA-Sen, IL-Sen, and WI-Sen.

What about Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Colorado?

People who know more than me may think they are competitive, but those will fall before the four I mentioned above. Spectacular losses (or gains) are to be expected; the only question is whether they cross into epic territory.

Of course, voters are looking to politicians that run to the right on spending, and I expect that narrative will becoming bigger come fall.

[Rococo4]

Probably the best poll I've seen for a Republican Senate candidate in California... like, ever.

Pretty amazing considering how unlikeable their candidate is.

i dont think SENATOR boxer is more likeable than anyone

[redcommander]

Wooot go Carly!!!! I do think that she needs to move considerably more to the center though before fall in order to win. The race seems like it will be very close, like Boxer's first race in 92. She needs all the moderate support she can get, and her primary position on off-shore drilling for example may be problematic.

[Sbane]

It looks like a good sample to me, but the GOP candidates are doing fantastic with voters of color.  mean Carly and Whitman are not really doing that great with white voters really. If that holds, it will be a psephological earthquake.

I have a feeling Whitman's going to do very well with Latinos and Asians, and perhaps Blacks as well. And that may spill on to the Senate race as well, but it's unlikely. I am now thinking Whitman's chances are greater than 50% while Fiorina will get close but won't defeat Boxer.

[Sbane]

Wooot go Carly!!!! I do think that she needs to move considerably more to the center though before fall in order to win. The race seems like it will be very close, like Boxer's first race in 92. She needs all the moderate support she can get, and her primary position on off-shore drilling for example may be problematic.

You think Boxer's opposition to offshore drilling will hurt her in California?