2008: McCain vs Obama vs Paul

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Following his defeat in the 2008 Republican Primaries, Ron Paul bolts to run on the Libertarian ticket, beating out Bob Barr at the convention. Paul manages to court several surprising celebrity endorsements, such as Trey Parker, Matt Stone, and Vince Vaughn, amongst others, and manages to acquire a sizeable warchest through moneybombs. That being said, the tickets are...

Barack Obama/Joe Biden

vs

John McCain/Sarah Palin

vs

Ron Paul/Gary Johnson

I know who'd win my vote but who would win the election?

[sentinel]

Paul/Johnson pulls away voters from McCain. Swing states that went in favor of McCain flip to Obama like Missouri, Montana, South Dakota. Maybe Georgia and North Dakota --Arizona could flip if enough people went that way. Burr would lose votes too.

[Vepres]

Missouri and Montana flip to Obama, and Arizona is a nail biter.

[Thomas D]

Obama 397-141

[Psychic Octopus]

Is Ron Paul allowed to participate in the debates?

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Is Ron Paul allowed to participate in the debates?

Sure. That'd make it even more interesting.

Burr would lose votes too.

Richard Burr wasn't up for re-election in 2008.

[Del Tachi]

Obama/Biden--395
McCain/Palin-143
Paul/Johnson-0

Paul wounldn't manage to win in any states, but would flip several McCain states into the Obama column.  Nationwide, he could probably win 10-15% of the national popular vote.

[Bo]

Obama/Biden--395
McCain/Palin-143
Paul/Johnson-0

Paul wounldn't manage to win in any states, but would flip several McCain states into the Obama column.  Nationwide, he could probably win 10-15% of the national popular vote.

MD and MA for McCain?

[Del Tachi]

Obama/Biden--395
McCain/Palin-143
Paul/Johnson-0

Paul wounldn't manage to win in any states, but would flip several McCain states into the Obama column.  Nationwide, he could probably win 10-15% of the national popular vote.

MD and MA for McCain?

Sorry, flip those to Obama.  Wasn't paying attention.

[Jordan Gwendolyn]

I don't believe that Paul would have any effect in the deep South, seeing as it is very socially conservative, however, the west, as well as the Upper Great Plains have more libertarian attitudes.

Hell, I think Ron Paul could tip Texas, the southern and western parts are full of Republitarians.

[Thomas D]

I don't believe that Paul would have any effect in the deep South, seeing as it is very socially conservative, however, the west, as well as the Upper Great Plains have more libertarian attitudes.

Hell, I think Ron Paul could tip Texas, the southern and western parts are full of Republitarians.

Not sure if Obama would do that well. But Welcome to the Forum.

[tpfkaw]

I don't believe that Paul would have any effect in the deep South, seeing as it is very socially conservative, however, the west, as well as the Upper Great Plains have more libertarian attitudes.

Hell, I think Ron Paul could tip Texas, the southern and western parts are full of Republitarians.

Ron Paul is actually a favorite of the religious right, believe it or not. He just won the Family Research Council's "Values Voters" straw poll by a large margin, and he endorsed Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party in the 2008 election. He's really much more of a Pat Buchanan-like paleoconservative than an actual libertarian.

[feeblepizza]

Obama/Biden (D) 43% (456)
McCain/Palin (R) 37.5% (82)
Paul/Johnson (L) 18.9% (0)

Popular vote is basically 1992, but the Dems get a bigger EV count

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Obama/Biden (D) 43% (456)
McCain/Palin (R) 37.5% (82)
Paul/Johnson (L) 18.9% (0)

Popular vote is basically 1992, but the Dems get a bigger EV count

How does Paul cause Obama to break 50% in Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, and the Dakotas?

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

[feeblepizza]

Obama/Biden (D) 43% (456)
McCain/Palin (R) 37.5% (82)
Paul/Johnson (L) 18.9% (0)

Popular vote is basically 1992, but the Dems get a bigger EV count

How does Paul cause Obama to break 50% in Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, and the Dakotas?

Paul's best region is the South, what with military voters. McCain is unpopular in AZ (fortunately), and he barely won the Dakotas anyway

[Joe Republic]

How does Paul cause Obama to break 50% in Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, and the Dakotas?

Paul's best region is the South, what with military voters. McCain is unpopular in AZ (fortunately), and he barely won the Dakotas anyway

Sooo... how does that cause Obama to break 50% in those states?

[SPC]

Ron Paul was on the ballot in Montana (and Louisiana) in 2008? Do you think that him actively campaigning would change the outcome?

[feeblepizza]

How does Paul cause Obama to break 50% in Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, and the Dakotas?

Paul's best region is the South, what with military voters. McCain is unpopular in AZ (fortunately), and he barely won the Dakotas anyway

Sooo... how does that cause Obama to break 50% in those states?

Plurality

[Joe Republic]

Uh... anything over 50% is a majority, not a plurality.

[CatoMinor]

[Lief 🗽]

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Ron Paul was on the ballot in Montana (and Louisiana) in 2008? Do you think that him actively campaigning would change the outcome?

Paul did zero campaigning and in fact unsuccessfully requested his name be removed from the ballot, but still did quite well in Montana, taking 2.17% with a pretty-much unknown running mate.

In Louisiana, Paul failed to break a half a percent despite having Barry Goldwater (Jr.) as his running mate.

This I doubt he would have flipped Georgia or any other Southern state to Obama.

[defe07]

What would Paul's best results be? Does he come in 2nd in any states at all?

[Yelnoc]

What would Paul's best results be? Does he come in 2nd in any states at all?

No.  I say he does about the same that Eugene Debs did in 1912, percentage-wise.  Nationally he might get 5-10% of the vote.  I think a lot of Republicans would be afraid to vote for him because he would act as a spoiler.