Smallest swing in ages?

[minionofmidas]

I'm looking at changes in two-party vote margins of victory (mov), popular vote here.
In 1996, mov swung by 2.95 (D 5.56 to D 8.51). That was the lowest swing since 1944, when it swung by 2.46 (D 9.96 to D 7.50). A little earlier, in 1924, it swung by only .95 (R 26.17 to R 25.22). The two smallest swings ever were in two elections in a row, 1884 (R .02 to D .25) and 1888 (D .25 to .80).

If Bush wins by less than 2.44 or Kerry by 3.46 - which appears highly probable right now - we'll have the least change in sixty years. If Bush wins by less than .44 or Kerry by less than 1.46, we'll have the least change in over a hundred years.

Reason I find this interesting is a) because it shows how polarized the US are right now
and b) because that means state, county results etc will be much more comparable than usual (they aren't really that comparable in 1996 because of the Perot factor). And I like doing that a lot.

Two afterthoughts: The tiny swings of 1884 and 1888 led to changes in White House occupancy anyways. (In 88 Dems gained popular votes but lost the White House - durned EC.)
The largest swing ever was in 1932 (R 17.41 to D 17.76)...not long after the abovementioned 1924 miniswing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting. County results could be very interesting

[minionofmidas]

Bush wins by 3.2, so forget this. It wasn't the closest swing in ages, even though the EC looks as if.

[zorkpolitics]

Bush won by 3.08, lost by 0.51 in 2000 so the swing was a 3.59%