Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
Posts: 9,321
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« on: November 02, 2004, 05:17:46 AM » |
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« edited: November 02, 2004, 05:22:01 AM by Silent Hunter »
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I'm going to call this *tentatively* for Bush.
My reasons:
a) Gallup's 49-49 tie is based on the allocating the undecideds 9-1 to Kerry. That's not going to happen.
b) The final predictions put Bush in the lead.
c) Most of the ABB crowd have registered and been polled by now. I don't think Kerry will get enough extra people on the day to swing it.
d) Bush has a better Electoral College base. An EV tie is a serious possibility, in which case Bush wins in the House.
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