Turnout

[Hearnes]

Larry J Sabato says "We really think that if turnout hovers around 115 million to 117 million Bush has the edge, but if turnout truly skyrockets, most of those new voters will not be coming out to say, "Good job Mr. President," and Kerry will pull the upset."

What do you think?

[??????????]

No realy evidence that that will be the case. The upsurge could be for Bush. No one really knows. In a few hours however we sure will.

[StevenNick]

Who knows?  I guess the above prediction sounds reasonable enough.  A somewhat bigger turnout will probably be attributed to Bush GOTV efforts.  Really hugh turnout will mean higher than expected turout by people who hate Bush (and probably weren't being polled, e.g. youth voters).  We'll see in less than 24 hours.

[Sam Spade]

I think Sabato is probably correct on this.  This will mean that turnout is maybe a percentage point higher, maybe a little more, among adults.

[Reignman]

One thing about the "turnout" is that the Dems have registered quite a few young voters who support Kerry, and new voters also support Kerry, and all the polls don't include cell phones which younger voters use.  At the same time, Bush is urging all his supporters to get their cousin to vote or whatever.

I guess the biggest wildcard in this election is Hawaii.

[??????????]

One thing about the "turnout" is that the Dems have registered quite a few young voters who support Kerry, and new voters also support Kerry, and all the polls don't include cell phones which younger voters use.  At the same time, Bush is urging all his supporters to get their cousin to vote or whatever.

I guess the biggest wildcard in this election is Hawaii.

I doubt every single young new voter will vote for Kerry. This is a big assumption which is going to be knocked on its arse today.