2012 Presidential Election TL

[California8429]

Comments? Predictions?

I'll only be making one post for June and one for July.

[Yelnoc]

What's in the background behind Romney in that first picture?

I predict the convention will deadlock, especially once Pataki endorses Daniels (My fingers are crossed) putting Daniels in second place with 818 delegates.  Eventually Gingrich drops out without endorsing anyone and Daniels gains a slim majority on the ballot.

[sentinel]

I don't know. I second the comment above in that I'm hoping Daniels squeaks out a win. But I can't see these 3 men taking it all the way to the convention, given the potential consequences for the general election. One of them drops out after negotiations (perhaps in exchange for VP or something comfy in the admin). I'm thinking Mitt will drop out, after an edorsement from Pataki for Daniels. Daniels and Newt take it to the convention, where they duke it out for the nomination.

Mitt is in second place in delegates, what does he gain from dropping out? Daniels should be the one dropping out.

[Yelnoc]

Delegate Count
Gingrich 918 (Green)
Romney 718 (Red)
Daniels 562 (Yellow)
Pataki 277 (Brown)
Johnson 41 {Delegates Transferred to Daniels}
Snowe 23 (Blue) {Delegates Transferred to Pataki}
DeMint 6   {Delegates Transferred to Gingrich}

Daniels' 562 delegates + Pataki's 277 = 839 delegates. That would pretty effectively put Daniels in second.

I misread the last post and switched Gingrich and Romney, but this is what I meant.  The question is, who would Romney endorse when he dropped out (if he endorsed either candidate).

[California8429]

What's in the background behind Romney in that first picture?

I predict the convention will deadlock, especially once Pataki endorses Daniels (My fingers are crossed) putting Daniels in second place with 818 delegates.  Eventually Gingrich drops out without endorsing anyone and Daniels gains a slim majority on the ballot.

I noticed that too after the post, just ignore it it was a two day media thing like the Huckabee floating cross aka bookcase

[California8429]

June
The media looks at possible Clinton running mates. The list includes…
Fmr. Governor Bill Richardson
DNC Chairman Tim Kaine
Fmr. Senator Evan Byah
Governor John Hickenlooper
General Wesley Clark
Senator Mark Warner
Senator Ben Nelson
Senator Baucus
Secretary Sebelius

Newt Gingrich promises he won’t back out, stating he will win the nomination and the Presidency. It’s time for bold, conservative, working solutions. That’s why I decided to run and that’s why I’m going to win.


George Pataki said he has not yet made up his mind for who he will support. I’ve given a lot of thought to this, 2012 is a very important election and I want to make sure everything done for the best of the party. I will take my time on any important decision.


Mitch Daniels states he has the momentum on his side and will win the convention. Romney also said he won’t back out because the party needs a strong leader.

There is a youth swing toward republicans just as there was a large swing to democrats in 2008. The youth has been energized mainly because of the important republican primaries where there is still no defined candidate and they have an influence on pushing momentum into the convention.


The RNC is working with all three Republican candidates to decide on a keynote speaker. So far potentials include Governor Bob McDonnell, Speaker Eric Cantor, Rep. Mike Pence, Governor Sam Brownback and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Others were throw out of consideration due to strong support of a single candidate like Governor Bobby Jindal, Senator John Thune, Governor Tim Pawlenty, Governor Haley Barbour and Governor Chris Christie. Sarah Palin is also being drafted for the spot, though she has been supporting Newt Gingrich.


Obama pushes for heavy regulation on the energy industry to protect the environment. All Republican candidates critized the President with Gingrich attacking the most. Does the President want to see America dependent on other, corrupt, anti-democratic nations around the world? Because it seems he does by using every opportunity possible to shut off America’s energy faucet. This is irresponsible and plain crazy.


Hillary Clinton resigns as Secretary of State to focus on the campaign. Being on the campaign trail is a full time job. I don’t want to hold up foreign policy for one moment, I’m doing the responsible thing. It was a tough decision, but it had to be made.

UN Ambassador Susan Rice is appointed to become Secretary of State. Greg Craig is appointed from White House counsel to be the new UN Ambassador.

[feeblepizza]

Go Daniels!!!!!!!!! I KNEW he would make it this far!!!!!!!!!

[Yelnoc]

Nice update, hopefully the next one will be the convention.

[Mr. Morden]

If this really happened, there would be enormous pressure from GOP bigwigs on the three candidates to cut some kind of deal before the convention, with one of them as presidential nominee and another as VP nominee.  They would be in a panic, trying to avoid this dragging on until the convention, and leaving the party without a nominee until then, culminating with a messy fight at the convention.  Especially if all three candidates are that competitive in the general election.  They would not want to blow this election over a messy fight within the party.  This is not 1960, when the nomination being left undecided until the convention was considered par for the course.

Also, if Gingrich won the most votes and the most delegates, he would be wielding that fact like a club over the other candidates.  He and his supporters would be hammering the other candidates over the fact that they're unnecessarily keeping this race going, and not cutting a deal with him that would make him presidential nominee.  He'd try to argue that the fact that he got the most votes means that he's the only person who would be seen as the "legitimate" nominee for the party.  Again, times have changed since pre-1972 reform era.  Most voters don't really understand the nomination process.  They just think that whoever gets the most votes should be the nominee.

[feeblepizza]

I just know that Mitch will get it I'm optimistic

[California8429]

July-August
Newt Gingrich meets again with Speaker Eric Cantor as well as George Pataki. Only a few staff members were also in the meetings. No details have been released. There is speculation that Pataki was asked to be VP in exchange for his delegates to lock up the convention. There is speculation that any combination of the three candidates would happen to ensure one became the nominee and one the VP, however that would leave the third one out of the picture and could split the party.


Gas prices rise to $4.19 average in the country as Obama’s hard policies on nonrenewable energy come into effect from the previous Congress. All republican candidates attacked Obama’s narrow energy policy that was killing the nation’s energy supply.

President Obama announces that troops will be out of Iraq completely by December which mainly consists of the 45,000 troops left in the transitional force. The President stated Iraq was ready to take full control of the control and that he has the greatest confidence in the Iraqi security force.

All republican candidates stated they did not feel Iraq was ready yet for full US withdraw and that it would move to chaos or worse.

Approval Rating Of President Obama
44%Approve 52% Disapprove

Favorability Ratings Of Candidates Favorable/Unfavorable
Newt Gingrich 47/44
Mitt Romney 45/43
Mitch Daniels 50/45
Hillary Clinton 47/46

Head-to-head match-ups
Gingrich/Clinton 46/46
Romney/Clinton 47/48
Daniels/Clinton 48/47
GOP/Clinton/Chafee 41/47/9
GOP/Clinton/Bayh 45/39/14
GOP/Clinton/Crist 39/42/17

Gingrich, Romney and Daniels schedule a meeting with Eric Cantor, Orrin Hatch, Mike Pence, Bob McDonnell and Haley Barbour. It is likely the outcome will stop a floor fight at the convention and work out a ticket for the GOP.

Independent Governor Chafee endorses Mitch Daniels. Chafee was seen as a potential third party bid. Michael Bloomberg already said he would not run. The only other potentials remaining that are viable would be Evan Byah who decided not to run for the democratic nomination and Senator Charlie Crist, who is unlikely to run after only a year and a half in the Senate.


Mitt Romney announces his running mate to be Governor Nikki Haley in South Carolina.

Mitt Romney is the man for us! He will fight for every single America. He will fight for common sense solutions. He has been through a lot, and that has only made him stronger. He knows how to balance a budget, he knows how to build a company, he knows what must be done to turn around the economy. Mitt is ready on day one and I am ready to stand beside him and help him in every step on the way!

There have been numerous sources now confirming that the candidate meeting was to decide on the nominee and VP to stop a floor fight. Negotiations are now cut with Romney who in fact cut them himself by announcing his own VP pick and showing he will not stop before the convention. Sources say an arrangement with Gingrich, Daniels and the others who will sit in is back in the works, though less likely than before. Haley Barbour stated that Mitt Romney put his ambitions in front of the party and the American people by blowing off the meeting after so much had been done to arrange it.
 

GOP members angered at Romney are looking for a Gingrich-Daniels ticket. Romney’s announcement did improve polling numbers overall.
Do you feel Nikki Haley is qualified to be VP?
Yes 34%
No 29%
Do you fell Nikki Haley will energize the party base?
Yes 46%
No 30%
What is your opinion toward Nikki Haley?
Favorable 40%
Unfavorable 28%

[California8429]

Thoughts before we head into the conventions?

[feeblepizza]

I think that Mitch will win and kick Hillary's fried chicken ass

[Yelnoc]

I think a Gingrich-Anybody ticket will lose to Hillary.  Still have my fingers crossed for Daniels; Romney's actions make me think he doesn't have a chance come the convention.  I guess it really all rests on who Pataki endorses.

[California8429]

Conventions
Day 1
Numerous republicans speak for Daniels, Romney and Gingrich. The campaigns reached an agreement through back channels that since so much of the convention will be taken up because of the race, the Keynote speaker will be the Vice Presidential nominee. It is clear that Romney’s people are locked solid with the Romney-Haley ticket, but aren’t bringing with them as many southern delegates as they hoped for. Daniels and Gingrich’s delegates stand by their candidates with very unfavorable views toward Romney. A few South Carolina delegates look like they will break to Romney to make the state a toss-up now.
Prime Speaker For Each Candidate
Gingrich-Sarah Palin
Romney-Nikki Haley
Daniels-Laura Bush
Pundits said Palin’s “Gingrich RNC Speech” was the best since her acceptance speech for Vice President, stealing the night for Gingrich. The media praised Haley’s speech as “energizing, following in the steps of Sarah Palin” and Laura Bush’s as “a heartwarming welcome to the Bush family.” It was a surprise Haley was Romney’s primetime speech on the first night. If the Romney-Haley ticket wins, Haley will speak again for the acceptance of VP. The media noted that all three key speakers were woman showing a rise of females and minorities in the Republican party.


Day 2
The candidates address the RNC before the roll call. Mitch Daniels was credited for having the most powerful speech, though Gingrich and Romney also did well. Daniels called out The time for responsibility is now! The time for energy independence is now! The time for big government to end is now! And the time for the American people to take over Washington is right, now!

The chair started the first roll call on Day 2 of 4 due to the expected drawn out process.

Delegate Count 1,191 needed to win majority.
Gingrich 985 (Green)
Romney 811 (Red)
Daniels 680 (Yellow)
The convention is in deadlock with no candidate wanting to budge. Romney took the largest incline due to Pataki not being on the ballot (most of his states were New England states) though Gingrich and Daniels also profited off of his delegates. The voters are anxious for a nominee, though the bloodline now runs deep with no candidate showing signs of wavering and neither do their supporters.

There are rumors that Gingrich offered Pataki the VP spot shortly before the convention in order to wrap up the nomination and unite the party. No one knows yet if Pataki turned the offer down or not or if he will accept tomorrow night on the next roll call.

There is an hour and a half until the start of the next roll call. Numerous republicans will speak for their candidate. Fox News spots Pataki signs being handed out to the crowd. Dozens of volunteers turn into what seems like hundreds as thousands of Pataki signs are passed out throughout the crowd.

Senator Olympia Snowe, Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Governor Brownback are granted 10 minutes on the floor. Together they introduce their choice for President, Brownback states, one who can lead the Republican party, one who can carry the banner and unite us going into November, that man is the next President of the United States, George, Pataki! Pataki joins the three on stage as well as dozens of other elected officials and dozens more supporters carrying Pataki signs.

I promised you I had one last war to win. I promised you we would win in November. I intend to keep that promise because I know together, we will take the White House. Together we are united, together we are unstoppable, together we will be a wave that this country has never seen before. Tell the democratic nominee to run and hide, because we are bringing a storm they have never seen!

Second Roll Call

Delegate Count 1,191 needed to win majority.
Gingrich 785 (Green)
Pataki 654 (Brown)
Daniels 616 (Yellow)
Romney 401 (Red)

The convention night is brought to a close.

[Yelnoc]

But Pataki dropped out.  I mean, I understand how a compromise candidate works but I don't know how much credibility Pataki would have after bowing out.  The problem with Pataki is that Romney isn't going anywhere and Gingrich would be miffed by Pataki rejecting his VP offer and than turning around and putting his name back on the ballot.  Mitch is the only guy at this point that might fold, though I could see him being a legitamite compromise candidate if Pataki's entrance causes and even bigger deadlock.  After all, the party bosses aren't going to let the ballots run on for ever for fear of damaging their general election campaign.

Anyway, good update, looking forward to more.

[California8429]

Conventions Continued
Day 3
More speeches are given before the next rolls calls. Romney has lost all his momentum as supporters see the only viable moderate choice to be Pataki. Supporters look for a Pataki-Romney ticket, though it seems highly unlikely as Pataki stole any chance Romney had at becoming the nominee. Daniels picks up western states as Romney delegates see Romney as a lost cause. There are rumors a Daniels-Gingrich arrangement is being worked out, however it is unlikely something will be announced before the end of the 3rd roll call.

Third Roll Call

Delegate Count 1,191 needed to win majority.
Gingrich 835 (Green)
Pataki 723 (Brown)
Daniels 721 (Yellow)
Romney 177 (Red)

The Chair announces Mitt Romney will be eliminated from the ballot.

Romney gives his last remarks to the crowd, asking all his supporters to ask their votes with what their heart and mind tells you to. There was a chance Romney would have endorsed Daniels, but that fell through after there appears to be negotiations with Daniels and Gingrich and that CNN reports that the two candidates are in fact in the same room together currently with their wives and senior staff. It is rumored Speaker Eric Cantor is in the meeting, but no source can confirm this.

Mitch Daniels addresses the crowd before the 4th roll call. Friends, delegates, republicans. We’ve made a long journey. We started out with a simple message and not much else. Today, I’m standing before you at the Republican National Convention. A year ago this would have only been a dream, something that couldn’t possibly be real. Today, I live that dream. Together, we have made history. But I must inform you, this chapter is not over. We must look toward November. We must unite as one party. We must unite as one country. We must take back the White House and fight for conservative values, for economic freedom, for personal liberties and keep the American dream alive! Tonight I will ask you to fight for our ideals and for our country by supporting the next President of the United States, Newt Gingrich!After the crowd dies down, Daniels turns to the Chair. I ask to be removed from the fourth ballot so we can stand united behind our to-be nominee, and next President of the United States, Newt Gingrich! The crowd chants “Mitch, Mitch Mitch” as Mitch Daniels leaves the stage, leaving the country in awe.


Fourth Roll Call

Delegate Count 1,191 needed to win majority.
Gingrich 1546 (Green)
Pataki 910 (Brown)

The convention night is brought to a close. It is widely suspected Mitch Daniels will be the VP choice, though it will split the party without the Pataki/Romney wing of the party on board.

Day 4
Mitch Daniels, now the GOP’s favorite man, addresses the crowd and introduces the next Vice President of the United States, Speaker Eric Cantor.

Together, today, we stand united. As one party, as once conservative voice, Washington will hear us loud and clear, we are ready to fight! Cantor will not resign from the House the Gingrich campaign released.

Newt Gingrich is introduced by Mitch Daniels at the end of the night. Gingrich gives a stirring speech attacking the President without mentioning his name or the White House. It is time for the conservative American people, to control our own government. It is time for citizens to stand up, it is time for conservative to fight for conservatives, it is time to pick up are banner and wave it proudly. We are conservatives. I am a conservative and I will not forget it in the White House because you are going to get us there!

[sentinel]

I especially liked the Pataki challenge on the convention floor.  [West Wing minor spoiler incoming]

Reminds me of Eric Baker in West Wing.

[feeblepizza]

Ugh....I'm only supporting Gingrich now because of his VP choice. He will obviously win 6-8 states in the South and get destroyed by Hilrod, however

[California8429]

I especially liked the Pataki challenge on the convention floor.  [West Wing minor spoiler incoming]

Reminds me of Eric Baker in West Wing.

I must say, I love the West Wing

[Yelnoc]

Oh...I get it.  Gingrich is the GOP sacrificial lamb so that Daniels can take out Hillary in 2016....

[ej2mm15]

Gingrich is going to win because A-bob is Gingrich fan.

[redcommander]

Ginhrich is going to win because A-bob is Gingrich fan.

Exactly what you said even though we all know in RL Gingrich would lose in a landslide.

[sentinel]

I like it.

A-Bob btw, you signed up and we're starting if you're still in: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=122178.0

[California8429]

August/Early September
Clinton chooses Evan Bayh as her running mate. The two try to position themselves as center-left compared to Obama’s far left policies. President Obama gives the keynote address and is greeted warmly. Clinton calls out for bi-partisan work. Together we can accomplish more than anything we could alone. Together we can do more for this country than either party could alone. I ask democrats and republicans as well as independents to support our campaign as we will lead our nation to a bright future.


Polling after the conventions.
Gingrich/Cantor 46%
Clinton/Bayh 47%

President Obama announces military spending cuts deemed “unnecessary” but the Department of Defense. The President stated they will downsize the army with less recruitment as well. The President said his plan will save almost a hundred billion dollars with little effect to America’s military presence. Gingrich attacked the President, stating we needed a strong military force.


Russia cuts off all energy supplies to Eastern Europe. Many small countries fear and invasion. The Obama administration condemns Russia for destabilizing the region. Gingrich calls for a tough policy on Russia to protect our European allies and attacks the Obama administration for canceling missile defense shields in Eastern Europe. Clinton condemns the attack and states she wants to see a peaceful solution.

Who would handle the Russia situation the best?
Clinton 43%
Gingrich 37%

The DOW falls to 10,000 following Russia’s “power shut-off”. President Obama tells citizens not to worry and that this will be a minor setback before a strong growth period.

Estonia, Lativa and Georgia all state that their government networks have experienced cyber attacks and have shut-down, blaming Russia for the attacks. Russia claims they are not responsible.

Electoral College Map

The first of three Presidential debates is held. Clinton is considered the winner by a thin margin. Clinton touted her strong foreign policy record and stated she would best be able to handle a situation like the current Russia shut-off.  Gingrich stated the current administration’s policy, including Clinton, was weak and unacceptable to the American public.

Who won the debate?
Clinton 36%
Gingrich 29%
Tie 35%

Estonia, Lativa and Georgia report that their networks are fully operational. Georgia states that they believe Russia has infiltrated their networks and have bugged them, giving them full access to their government. Georgia urged the other nations to check if they found bugging. Russia denied the bugging and the network interference. Russia also states they are in negotiations with Ukraine, Lativa, Poland and Romania above the “shut-off” and expect to reach an agreement soon.