Final Battleground poll prediction numbers..

[Sam Spade]

http://www.tarrance.com/files/Tarrance-Group-Projection.pdf

Their prediction:
Bush 51.2%
Kerry 47.8%
Nader 0.5%
Other 0.5%

Their record of predictions is pretty impressive, btw.

[RN]

Sounds 'bout right.

[Alcon]

In 2000, they screwed up. They've tracked Bushward this entire election. Still, it'll be interesting if they're right.

[Sam Spade]

They are, and I repeat, they are the only pollsters to have actually polled Sunday and Monday.

All the other pollsters are still dealing with Sunday or before samples, fwiw.

[Sam Spade]

I might as well post their final numbers (in graph and pdf.  form)

Graph:
http://www.tarrance.com/files/Last-Day-Charts.pdf

Pdf. file:
http://www.tarrance.com/files/9936QF11-01.pdf

[Sam Spade]

I also might note that Lake Snell & Perry is not agreeing with this prediction, interestingly enough. 

I wonder if they will post their own separate prediction. 

[Sam Spade]

Apparently, from what I'm hearing on another site, Celinda Lake had sort of a dust-up with Ed Goeas and will make her own prediction.   This election is dividing even pollsters!!

Whether they're based on these numbers on not should be interesting.

[Reds4]

As much as I hope these numbers are right, they do seem a little too Bush friendly. I hope they are though. I'm hoping this is showing a Bush gain from Monday polling, since weekends generally help Dems.

[Sam Spade]

It's showing a gain in Monday numbers from Sunday numbers from everything I can tell.  I'd be curious to see what Harris, TIPP et al say about this myself.

They were dead-on in 1992, 1996, but they were off by 2.5% in 2000.  Strangely enough, they were dead-on with the Nader numbers in 2000 where most other pollsters were off, including Zogby.

Of course, I already mentioned the dust-up with Lake and Goaes.  I wouldn't be surprised if Lake comes up with numbers like Gallup, where all the undecideds go to Kerry creating a 49-49 tie.

[Rococo4]

This looks good to me as a Bush supporter......will be interesting to see what Lake says........

[lonestar]

It is interesting that in all their final projections (92, 96, 00 & 04), Bush is the only one to break 50%.