MORE - SUSA Polls - These are new :)

[The Vorlon]

Iowa

Kerry 50
Bush 47

Arkansas

Bush 51
Kerry 46

The 48/48 SUSA Arkansas sample was clearly $%^$ed BTW

Pennsylvania

Kerry 49
Bush 48

Washington

Kerry 51
Bush 47

The Wahington Sample looks a few (3% or so) % GOP friendly to my eye

The Arkansas and PA samples look good to me.

They also polled California, not that it matters - Kerry by 11%

[Erc]

2:00 Noon?

Anyway except for IA, these look quite good...

[Pollwatch99]

The map you have up looks good to me.

PA is getting real interesting.

Heavy rain forecasted

[J. J.]

The map you have up looks good to me.

PA is getting real interesting.

Heavy rain forecasted

Rain may not hit Phila or the suburbs; very bad news for Bush, if so.

[Giant Saguaro]

How do the IA numbers/internals look in general, btw?

[Pollwatch99]

no bad news can come from PA for Bush.  It's not a state that he should win, if he can he will clearly be 300+ in my opinion

[Sam Spade]

A shade too Democrat, by about 5% according to registration.  Dem GOTV operations in Iowa are notoriously good.  If the Reps can hold onto the base this time (they lost 30% of Rs) they can win, but it will be squeaker.

Iowa has moved slightly to Kerry over the past couple of weeks, whereas Pennsylvania and Michigan have moved the other way.

I can't figure out Minnesota and Wisconsin remains a total tossup in my mind.

I'm much more confident about Ohio than I was 3 days ago.  Gut feeling.

[Giant Saguaro]

I think Bush has a real good chance in IA.

PA looks just too close, wow. I wonder how many times Ed Rendell will be voting?

[bullmoose88]

Whats with Vorlon changing his final prediction map.

Its messing with me!

:-p

[Pollwatch99]

IA was really close in 2000, I think IA can go republican if we get a strong turnout.

Hard not to like OH, all current polls except the really strange Gallup sample has Bush leading( although Zogby has it too high ).  Two Mason-Dixon included

RCP Average   OH RCP Average Bush +2.1
Zogby           10/29-11/1  601 LV  4.1 49 43        Bush +6
FOX News     10/30-31     700 LV  3.0 50 47        Bush +3
SurveyUSA    10/29-31     816 LV  3.5 49 47        Bush +2
CNN/Gallup   10/28-31   1111 LV  4.0 46 50         Kerry +4
Ohio Poll/OC 10/27-31     877 LV  3.3 50.1 49.2   Bush +0.9
Mason-Dixon 10/27-29     625 LV  4.0 48 46         Bush +2
Rasmussen   10/25-31     600 LV  4.0 50 46         Bush +4
Clev. Plain     10/26-28   1500 LV  2.6 48 45         Bush +3

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think Iowa will come down to how much turnout the Democrats can eke out of Iowa City, Davenport, Cedar Rapids and Des Moines. Do well, Kerry takes it, do mediocre or poor, Bush will take it.

[Sam Spade]

Bush has gained some serious momentum in PA in the last week, even Larry Sabato admits it.  And I think we would all agree something is going on in MI.

I actually think that in the last few days, Bush has the momentum in OH, whereas Kerry might have gained slightly in FL (but I am not sure of this).

On the other hand, it appears like Kerry has momentum in IA and WI.  Minnesota I don't know period, though I would guess it sort of follows IA and WI.

[J. J.]

PA depends on turnout:

1.  In the Phila suburbs.

2.  In the Black neighborhoods of Phila.

I expect #2 to be very bad news for Kerry.

[Pollwatch99]

I still think we are okay with FL ( but a little nervous about both OH and FL ).  Jeb Bush was on Foxnews tonight and said that when absentee ballots are continued tonight the President will open the day leading in FL.  Given the strong early voting, this sounds pretty good to me.