Can Mitt Romney win without the south?

[Del Tachi]

If Romney can win early in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Florida then he is a shoe-in for the Republican nomination; most of the other candidates would drop out and most of the southern states would have no choice but to support Romney.

However, if Huckabee runs he might be able to make it a challenge for Romney in Iowa and South Carolina which would make the South much more powerful in determining the eventual nominee.

[Thomas D]

Hi Republican95

Welcome to the forum.

[Lincoln Republican]

Yes he would've won FL with his strong economic and private sector background against Obama last time. He is a Republican so even if he's not a Christian, he would get votes based on being tough on defense. VA doesn't look like it really is trending purple but that was more a phase.

That statement is most biased, non factual, ignorant, and completely baseless.

Of course, obviously, Romney is a Christian.  Get over your bigotry and ignorance.

[milhouse24]

If Romney can win early in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Florida then he is a shoe-in for the Republican nomination; most of the other candidates would drop out and most of the southern states would have no choice but to support Romney.

However, if Huckabee runs he might be able to make it a challenge for Romney in Iowa and South Carolina which would make the South much more powerful in determining the eventual nominee.

Romney won't win Iowa or South Carolina.  Mass voters have soured on him completely so he might not even do very well in NH.  He's a bit of a has-been who never was much of a political star.  There might be a few other candidates who are more charming and gain momentum in the primaries.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

He cannot.  Even if he looses one Southern state (excluding Maryland, if you consider it to be a Southern State, like Virginia, Florida, or North Carolina) than he is probably in trouble.  Kerry could have won without winning a Southern State,  same as Gore (if Gore had carried either Ohio or New Hampshire).  This only shows how critical the South is to him.  If he lost a Southern State, he could possibly make it up by swinging Michigan or Pennsylvania, but only if he is lucky.

[Zacoftheaxes]

If he were to lose the entire south I wouldn't put money on his chances of winning the nomination, that's for sure.

Wait a freaking second. Are you guys talking about losing the south in the primary or in the real election? There is not a chance in hell that he would lose the entire south to Obama.

We're talking about the primaries. I think we all know whoever the GOP nominates will do very well in the south in the Fall of 2012. 

Oh ok. In that case I agree 2 posts up where Romney can win if he picks up the states that McCain won. However, Mitch Daniels is going to be one tough beast to run against. Check out how I see him flipping states.

I don't know, is Daniels even running? Why is everyone so excited about him all the sudden?

Because unless the Democrats continue their current downward trajectory, he appears to be the only person that can beat Obama comfortably.

He'd need a charismatic VP if he wants to make sure he'll win.

[Progressive]

Romney can't win, period.

And thank God for that.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Romney can't win, period.

And thank God for that.

[Bull Moose Base]

Yes because the Republicans award delegates using basically the same winner-take-all method as the electoral college and the regions of the country where Romney will be the favorite have more than enough delegates to clinch.  Also, if you exclude Florida from the South- only the northern part of the state is really part of the deep South and Romney can very realistically win Florida- he can easily win without any Southern states.  If Barbour, Gingrich or Palin run, I suspect that's exactly what we'll see.

[Mr. Morden]

Yes because the Republicans award delegates using basically the same winner-take-all method as the electoral college....

No, presently, each state sets its own delegate allocation rules.  Some use WTA by state, some use WTA by congressional district, others use proportional representation.  However, if the RNC adopts the new primary reforms, as they're expected to:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=116781.0

then most states will actually switch to PR for the 2012 primaries, making their system more like that of the Dems.