Can Mitt Romney win without the south?

[Thomas D]

I know mathematically a person can win the Republican nomination without winning a southern state in the primaries. But given how powerful the southern base is in the GOP these days and given how poorly Romney did there in 2008 Can he win if he's shutout in the south?

[fezzyfestoon]

I would think so.  He did well in places like Atlanta and Nashville, coming close in Georgia and staying strong in Tennessee.  So it's not like he'd get 5% in every Southern state.  If he were to improve upon his 2008 standing, I could see him winning a couple.  But if he didn't, I would imagine he'd do well enough elsewhere especially if he's facing someone who'd be able to shut him out of the South.  If he is a strong enough candidate that winning is a possibility, I imagine he would try to win without the South and probably could.

[tmthforu94]

From PPP's national poll...

South
Huckabee 30
Romney 24
Palin 20
Gingrich 13
Paul 6

I wouldn't call 2nd place bad for Romney in the South. In 2008, he wasn't "weak" there either. He came close in Florida, Missouri, and Georgia and received a respectable amount in Tennessee. Romney might not win every southern state, but I think he has the chance to win a couple in 2012, and that's all he needs, if any.

[pbrower2a]

From PPP's national poll...

South
Huckabee 30
Romney 24
Palin 20
Gingrich 13
Paul 6

I wouldn't call 2nd place bad for Romney in the South. In 2008, he wasn't "weak" there either. He came close in Florida, Missouri, and Georgia and received a respectable amount in Tennessee. Romney might not win every southern state, but I think he has the chance to win a couple in 2012, and that's all he needs, if any.

If Palin, Gingrich, and/or Paul drop out (as usually happens after some distant third-place finishes in "must-win" state primaries), then who gets their supporters?

[Derek]

Yes he would've won FL with his strong economic and private sector background against Obama last time. He is a Republican so even if he's not a Christian, he would get votes based on being tough on defense. VA doesn't look like it really is trending purple but that was more a phase.

[California8429]

As long as he doesn't lose by like 40 points, it's fine. Winning the Northeast, Rust belt and west...he's fine

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Romney can't win, period.

And thank God for that.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Romney actually did pretty well in some of the most conservative areas of the South when he decided to start playing that card. 

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Romney can't win, period.

And thank God for that.

[Bo]

Yes.

[Derek]

As long as he doesn't lose by like 40 points, it's fine. Winning the Northeast, Rust belt and west...he's fine

What? Where do you see him having trouble in the south? I do think Romney like Daniels can flip some states but where do you see him doing that?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think most are discussing the primaries here. Romney would do well in the metros of the South in the areas of Atlanta, Nashville, Memphis, Charlotte, Charleston, New Orleans and areas in Florida and Texas.

And for those who beleive the ridiculous notion that "They will vote for the devil they now", Romney would win every Southern state against Obama. His policies, his horrible response to the spill (which I am sure will be remembered in LA, MS, AL, and FL), and his completely ignoring the floods in TN as well as those who voted on his race in some areas will leave many voting for the mormon. Also Romney would perform better in many suburban areas that McCain got demolished in depending on how the campaign goes. Which will aid him in FL, TX, NC, GA, and VA.

Yes he would've won FL with his strong economic and private sector background against Obama last time. He is a Republican so even if he's not a Christian, he would get votes based on being tough on defense. VA doesn't look like it really is trending purple but that was more a phase.

In what position are you to judge that exactly?

[Derek]

I think most are discussing the primaries here. Romney would do well in the metros of the South in the areas of Atlanta, Nashville, Memphis, Charlotte, Charleston, New Orleans and areas in Florida and Texas.

And for those who beleive the ridiculous notion that "They will vote for the devil they now", Romney would win every Southern state against Obama. His policies, his horrible response to the spill (which I am sure will be remembered in LA, MS, AL, and FL), and his completely ignoring the floods in TN as well as those who voted on his race in some areas will leave many voting for the mormon. Also Romney would perform better in many suburban areas that McCain got demolished in depending on how the campaign goes. Which will aid him in FL, TX, NC, GA, and VA.

Yes he would've won FL with his strong economic and private sector background against Obama last time. He is a Republican so even if he's not a Christian, he would get votes based on being tough on defense. VA doesn't look like it really is trending purple but that was more a phase.

In what position are you to judge that exactly?

The GOP is made up of a group people who basically agree on all the issues and while they may differ some, they have a conservative direction they want to take America in. Even if their candidate is pro-life they will view his pro-gun stance would be what the religious right took up as his moral stance.

[Yelnoc]

If he were to lose the entire south I wouldn't put money on his chances of winning the nomination, that's for sure.

[Derek]

If he were to lose the entire south I wouldn't put money on his chances of winning the nomination, that's for sure.

Wait a freaking second. Are you guys talking about losing the south in the primary or in the real election? There is not a chance in hell that he would lose the entire south to Obama.

[memphis]

It completely depends on how many opponents he has and in what order they bow out. The presidential primary season is easily the worst nuance of American democracy.

[Mr. Morden]

If Romney were to win all the same primaries and caucuses he won in 2008, plus all the non-Southern primaries won by McCain, he would win the nomination.  I don't see why that would be impossible.

[Thomas D]

If he were to lose the entire south I wouldn't put money on his chances of winning the nomination, that's for sure.

Wait a freaking second. Are you guys talking about losing the south in the primary or in the real election? There is not a chance in hell that he would lose the entire south to Obama.

We're talking about the primaries. I think we all know whoever the GOP nominates will do very well in the south in the Fall of 2012. 

[Derek]

If he were to lose the entire south I wouldn't put money on his chances of winning the nomination, that's for sure.

Wait a freaking second. Are you guys talking about losing the south in the primary or in the real election? There is not a chance in hell that he would lose the entire south to Obama.

We're talking about the primaries. I think we all know whoever the GOP nominates will do very well in the south in the Fall of 2012. 

Oh ok. In that case I agree 2 posts up where Romney can win if he picks up the states that McCain won. However, Mitch Daniels is going to be one tough beast to run against. Check out how I see him flipping states.

[Ameriplan]

If he were to lose the entire south I wouldn't put money on his chances of winning the nomination, that's for sure.

Wait a freaking second. Are you guys talking about losing the south in the primary or in the real election? There is not a chance in hell that he would lose the entire south to Obama.

We're talking about the primaries. I think we all know whoever the GOP nominates will do very well in the south in the Fall of 2012. 

Oh ok. In that case I agree 2 posts up where Romney can win if he picks up the states that McCain won. However, Mitch Daniels is going to be one tough beast to run against. Check out how I see him flipping states.

I don't know, is Daniels even running? Why is everyone so excited about him all the sudden?

[pbrower2a]

If he were to lose the entire south I wouldn't put money on his chances of winning the nomination, that's for sure.

Wait a freaking second. Are you guys talking about losing the south in the primary or in the real election? There is not a chance in hell that he would lose the entire south to Obama.

We're talking about the primaries. I think we all know whoever the GOP nominates will do very well in the south in the Fall of 2012. 

Oh ok. In that case I agree 2 posts up where Romney can win if he picks up the states that McCain won. However, Mitch Daniels is going to be one tough beast to run against. Check out how I see him flipping states.

I don't know, is Daniels even running? Why is everyone so excited about him all the sudden?

Republicans need a miracle.

[Yelnoc]

If he were to lose the entire south I wouldn't put money on his chances of winning the nomination, that's for sure.

Wait a freaking second. Are you guys talking about losing the south in the primary or in the real election? There is not a chance in hell that he would lose the entire south to Obama.

We're talking about the primaries. I think we all know whoever the GOP nominates will do very well in the south in the Fall of 2012. 

Oh ok. In that case I agree 2 posts up where Romney can win if he picks up the states that McCain won. However, Mitch Daniels is going to be one tough beast to run against. Check out how I see him flipping states.

I don't know, is Daniels even running? Why is everyone so excited about him all the sudden?

Because unless the Democrats continue their current downward trajectory, he appears to be the only person that can beat Obama comfortably.

[milhouse24]

He's more polished than Barbour, Mitch, Gingrich, Thune, etc. but I don't think he can win the electoral map against Obama.  I think a lot of GOP voters would stay home if he were nominated.

[Derek]

He's more polished than Barbour, Mitch, Gingrich, Thune, etc. but I don't think he can win the electoral map against Obama.  I think a lot of GOP voters would stay home if he were nominated.

Not on your life. The Republicans are more motivated to defeat Obama in 2012 than anything any of us have ever been motivated to do. Stay home? Not a chance.

[milhouse24]

He's more polished than Barbour, Mitch, Gingrich, Thune, etc. but I don't think he can win the electoral map against Obama.  I think a lot of GOP voters would stay home if he were nominated.

Not on your life. The Republicans are more motivated to defeat Obama in 2012 than anything any of us have ever been motivated to do. Stay home? Not a chance.

How many registered Republicans do you think are out there?  There is the smaller TEa Party faction, but you're talking about maybe 40% diehard GOP voters.  It will be up to the Ross Perot/independent voters who would really dislike Obama, and this would be more of an economy/jobs issue.  But whereas Ross Perot had a charming southern personality, Romney is a colder CEO-type that might not do very well energizing midwestern swing state voters.  This could change and his image could change, but I just don't see his personality winning swing voters right now.