Final pollbooth projection

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Final update now posted on pollbooth.org



Bush: 266
Kerry: 242
Toss-Up: 30

Solid Bush: 153
Solid Bush: 49
Lean Bush: 64
Lean Kerry: 79
Likely Kerry 68
Solid Kerry: 95

Lean Bush States:
Missouri: Bush +4.7%
Nevada: Bush +4.0%
Colorado: Bush +3.2%
New Mexico: Bush +1.9%
Iowa: Bush +1.7%
Florida: Bush +1.3%

Toss-Up States
Wisconsin: Bush +0.8%
Ohio: Bush +0.2%

Lean Kerry States:
New Hampshire: Kerry +2.1%
Pennsylvania: Kerry +2.4%
Hawaii: Kerry +3.0%
Minnesota: Kerry +3.0%
Michigan: Kerry +3.4%
Oregon: Kerry +4.3%
New Jersey: Kerry +4.5%

Personally, I am predicting that turnout carries Kerry over the top in both Toss-Up states and perhaps in Florida, winning him the election.

[Erc]

Sounds about right.


Although I disagree on NH

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I should note that I finished the update too early to incorporate the very last round of SurveyUSA polls, and I used this morning's Zogby numbers rather the the one's just released. 

But none of these would change the averages more than a one or two tenths of a percent, except for the SUSA poll in Arkansas, which would move AR to "Lean Bush" at Bush +4.2%

[J. J.]

It amazes me how many different ways people find to say, "I don't know."

[Gabu]

That looks familiar...

[DFLofMN]

I have a feeling in the Upper Mid-West, no chance of a Republican hat trick (MN, WI, IA), a small chance of a double (WI or MN, IA) and a better chance of just knocking off of Iowa.  MN and WI, late deciders seem to be trending towards Kerry, Gallup WI poll aside.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

In the past two or three days, the chances of Kerry winning Wisconsin and Florida have gone up IMO, while his chances of winning Ohio have gone down.  I would now say he has a very high chance of carrying Wisconsin, and a straight 50/50 shot at each of Florida and Ohio. 

Three days ago, I would have rated Kerry's chance of winning at 50%; now I would say it is about 65%.

[Shira]

In the past two or three days, the chances of Kerry winning Wisconsin and Florida have gone up IMO, while his chances of winning Ohio have gone down.  I would now say he has a very high chance of carrying Wisconsin, and a straight 50/50 shot at each of Florida and Ohio. 

Three days ago, I would have rated Kerry's chance of winning at 50%; now I would say it is about 65%.

Back in July this was my prediction as to Bush's numbers:

OH > national > FL > PA

[WalterMitty]

I have a feeling in the Upper Mid-West, no chance of a Republican hat trick (MN, WI, IA), a small chance of a double (WI or MN, IA) and a better chance of just knocking off of Iowa.  MN and WI, late deciders seem to be trending towards Kerry, Gallup WI poll aside.

it is always wise to push aside polls that doesnt  show your desired result