2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[xavier110]

For the races I've followed:

DE: O'Donnell 52 / Castle 48
NH: Ayotte 39 / Lamontagne 35

NY:
Lazio 53 / Paladino 47
DioGuardi
Schneiderman 34 / Rice 26 / Coffey 23
Cox 38 / Altschuler 34 / Demos 28
Maloney
Rangel

The ones without percentages will be decisive wins.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm saying Castle by 3 and Ayotte by about 5.

[Eraserhead]

What are everyone's predictions for tomorrow?

DE:

US Senate (GOP)
O'Donnell 54%
Castle 46%

DC:

Mayor (DEM)
Gray 49%
Fenty 40%

NH:

US Senate (GOP)
Ayotte 39%
Lamontagne 35%
Binnie 17%
Bender 9%

NY:

Governor (GOP)
Paladino 52%
Lazio 48%

US Senator Special (DEM)
Gillibrand 76%
Goode 24%

US Senator Special (GOP)
DioGuardi should win. I found out today that he is strongly against the Iraq and Afghanistan blunders. That's pretty interesting.

US Senator (GOP)
No clue who'll win this. Flip a coin.

Attorney General (DEM)
Schneiderman 34%
Rice 33%
Sean Coffey 16%
Dinallo 9%
Brodsky 8%

NY-14 (DEM)
Maloney wins big.

NY-15 (DEM)
Rangel survives. It won't be very close.

NY-23 (GOP)
Doheny over Hoffman. I'm not sure about the margin here.

[Sam Spade]

I'm generally voting an anti-incumbent/anti-establishment ticket tomorrow, fyi.  Except for Schniederman, he's a piece of sh!t candidate and I want to make sure Cuomo has him as his little "gift".  I expect him to win very narrowly - the race is essentially between him and Rice.

On the other big races:

DE-Sen (R):  The trick is trying to figure exactly who the Republicans are in Delaware - which are not necessarily the same as those who vote Republican, I suspect.  My guess here is that Castle is underpolling a bit for a number of reasons, so I'll say Castle by a few in the end.

DE-House (R):  PPP is probably right here.

DC Mayor:  I don't know anything about DC voting habits (I do know something about their crack habits).

NH-Sen (R):  Ayotte by more than you think.

NH-House seats:  I should know more about how they'll fall, but I don't.

NY-Gov (R):  Lazio's just a bad enough candidate to lose here.  Being the establishment candidate should be worth a few points in NY, but who knows.

NY-Sen Spec. (D):  I'm voting for Goode (even though she is a NYC attorney - and thus incompetent, so be it).

NY-Sen Spec. (R):  DioGuardi will win.  I like him personally when I've seen him on TV and will vote for him in the general.  He's a little old and nuts, but entertaining.

NY-Sen (R):  No clue.

I'd continue with the House races, but I agree with Eraserhead.

As for the NY-1 primary, it's anyone's ball game.  Suspect it won't be Chris Cox, just my gut feeling.

RI:  The RI-1 D primary should be very interesting - basically an all-out war there.

WI:  Any interesting races there?  Johnson will beat Westlake.

MD:  Anything interesting there either?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a bunch of random predictions I just pulled out of my head. I don't know why I assign numbers to them, as they're inevitably wrong.

Democratic primaries

DC-Mayor: Gray 49, Fenty 41, Others 10
MA-09: Lynch 65, D'Alessandro 35
MA-10: Keating 61, O'Leary 39
NH-02: Kuster 57, Swett 43
NY-Sen-S: Gillibrand 80, Goode 20
NY-10: Towns 62, Powell 38
NY-14: Maloney 59, Saujami 41
NY-15: Rangel 43, Powell 22, Tasini 15, Johnson 13, Others 7
RI-01: Cicilline 48, Lynch 19, Gemma 17, Segal 16
RI-02: Langevin 65, Dennigan 30, other guy 5

Republican primaries

DE-Sen: O'Donnell 52, Castle 48
DE-AL: Urquhart 54, Rollins 41, Izzo 5
MD-Gov: Ehrlich 74, Murphy 26
MD-Sen: Wargotz 54, Rutledge 20, Others 26
MD-01: Harris 63, Fisher 37
MA-10: Perry 53, Malone 47
NH-Gov: Stephen 54, Kimball 30, Testerman 11, Emiro 5
NH-Sen: Ayotte 38, Lamontagne 33, Binnie 16, Bender 13
NH-01: Mahoney 45, Guinta 42, Others 13
NH-02: Bass 42, Horn 35, Giuda 17, Others 6
NY-Gov: Paladino 51, Lazio 49
NY-Sen: Townsend 57, Berntsen 43
NY-Sen-S: DioGuardi 49, Malpass 31, Blakeman 20
NY-01: Altschuler 36, Demos 33, Cox 31
NY-13: Grimm 54, Alegretti 46
NY-23: Doheny 52, Hoffman 48
RI-Gov: Robitaille 60, Moffitt 40
WI-Gov: Walker 62, Neumann 34, third dude 4
WI-08: McCormick 33, Ribble 32, Roth 23, Fourth dude 12

[JohnnyLongtorso]

MD:  Anything interesting there either?

I'm probably the only person on the entire form that finds the Republican primary for Comptroller interesting, mostly because of the trainwreck quality. The likely winner is William Campbell, some kind of businessman, but he's running against a perennial candidate from Baltimore named Armand Girard and an 18-year-old Paulite blogger named Brendan Madigan. I'm rooting for Madigan, if only for the sheer absurdity of him winning.

[Eraserhead]

I thought Lazio would make it up until the last week or so. Paladino is going to brutalize him upstate.

[Sam Spade]

NY-13 - I agree with Grimm winning too.  He's the better candidate - I watched a bit of the NY1 debate (don't ask me why)

Also on Gillibrand, she'll be closer to 70% than 80% - watch.

[Nhoj]

WI:  Any interesting races there?  Johnson will beat Westlake.

Republican governors primary has potential to be interesting, of course it also has the potential to be like what johnny is predicting thanks to the absolute lack of polling. Other than that WI-8 primary could be fun. I think my district, WI-07 will probably be something like 60-40 for duffy.

[Eraserhead]

Wow, Richard Brodsky has Pete Seeger's endorsement. Now that's pretty awesome.

http://www.richardbrodsky.com/media/player/seeger_for_brodsky/

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well, here we are once again. Sadly, this will be the last significant election day until the big day in November, in seven weeks.

Poll Closing Times:

8 ET - Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire*
9 ET - New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin

*Polls close at 7, but the bigger cities can stay open until 8. Some results might come in before 8.

AP Results pages: DE | DC | MD | MA | NH | NY | RI | WI

State Results pages: DE | DC | MD | RI | WI

(Not sure if all of these will have results on election night, but I know MA, NH, and NY won't.)

Maryland has early voting for the first time this year. Here are some rather detailed numbers if you're so inclined. Only 2.4% of voters have voted early.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Johnny, I like Malone and would be supporting him if I was a MA-10 voter, but I'm expecting him to get crushed by Perry.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Johnny, I like Malone and would be supporting him if I was a MA-10 voter, but I'm expecting him to get crushed by Perry.

So the stuff about Perry's illustrious career as a cop hasn't hurt him?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Johnny, I like Malone and would be supporting him if I was a MA-10 voter, but I'm expecting him to get crushed by Perry.

So the stuff about Perry's illustrious career as a cop hasn't hurt him?

I doubt it. Perry is the more conservative "tea party-ish" candidate in the race, he has the excitement, he's kept up in the money race, and he has most of the endorsements despite Malone being an "establishment" candidate.

[Eraserhead]

Well, I voted. There were only two races on my ballot. I voted for Gail Goode over Kirsten Gillibrand and I voted for Eric Schneiderman for Attorney General (really don't like Rice).

Oh yeah, and I'm expecting several issues with the new machines. My first ballot was "spoiled" because the machine didn't accept. it. Bring back the old lever machines, dammit! I loved those things.

[cinyc]

Well, I voted. There were only two races on my ballot. I voted for Gail Goode over Kirsten Gillibrand and I voted for Eric Schneiderman for Attorney General (really don't like Rice).

Oh yeah, and I'm expecting several issues with the new machines. My first ballot was "spoiled" because the machine didn't accept. it. Bring back the old lever machines, dammit! I loved those things.

Good riddance to the old, decrepit lever machines.  We should have gone to touchscreens, though, instead of back to paper ballots, which are so 19th century. 

[Eraserhead]

Well, I voted. There were only two races on my ballot. I voted for Gail Goode over Kirsten Gillibrand and I voted for Eric Schneiderman for Attorney General (really don't like Rice).

Oh yeah, and I'm expecting several issues with the new machines. My first ballot was "spoiled" because the machine didn't accept. it. Bring back the old lever machines, dammit! I loved those things.

Good riddance to the old, decrepit lever machines.  We should have gone to touchscreens, though, instead of back to paper ballots, which are so 19th century. 

Eh, I'm very attached to those things and I never had any problem with them. I agree that touchscreens would have been better than this system though. Did you vote yet?

[Meeker]

I saw a New York absentee ballot today. Strange looking thing.

[cinyc]

I saw a New York absentee ballot today. Strange looking thing.

Still punchcards or something new?

Eh, I'm very attached to those things and I never had any problem with them. I agree that touchscreens would have been better than this system though. Did you vote yet?

Later today.

[Meeker]

I saw a New York absentee ballot today. Strange looking thing.

Still punchcards or something new?

Fill-in-the-bubble. The design of the ballot itself just seemed very counterintuitive and confusing compared to the paper ballots I'm used to.


Also random note if either Rangel or Maloney somehow lose tonight: They both have the Working Families line in the general.

[minionofmidas]

Wow, Richard Brodsky has Pete Seeger's endorsement. Now that's pretty awesome.

Pete Seeger is, what, 104?

[Eraserhead]

Wow, Richard Brodsky has Pete Seeger's endorsement. Now that's pretty awesome.

Pete Seeger is, what, 104?

Only 91! I saw him play a show at the Henry A. Wallace Visitor and Education Center back when I was interning at FDR's library. He's still good!

[cinyc]

Wow, Richard Brodsky has Pete Seeger's endorsement. Now that's pretty awesome.

Pete Seeger is, what, 104?

Coffey was endorsed by Batman.

[Sam Spade]

Well, I voted. There were only two races on my ballot. I voted for Gail Goode over Kirsten Gillibrand and I voted for Eric Schneiderman for Attorney General (really don't like Rice).

Oh yeah, and I'm expecting several issues with the new machines. My first ballot was "spoiled" because the machine didn't accept. it. Bring back the old lever machines, dammit! I loved those things.

Strange that we voted the same ticket.    Of course, I voted Schneiderman for different reasons.

Yes, the new machines suck, even though I had no problems with them.  I want a receipt, dammit.

[Dan the Roman]

Just voted. Was unsure which ballot to take, but the downballot stuff on the D side got toe me.

Governor
Write in(voting Baker)

AG
Coakley

Auditor
Mike Lake(will vote Connaughton in the general)(Was split between Glodis who I think is weaker in the general, and of the two candidates who would not be a complete disgrace)

Treasurer
Murphy(opposite reasoning as Auditor)

Congress/Legislature
No Opponents

Executive Council
Whoever is challenging the incumbent, usually a good bet