2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[homelycooking]

I have counted absentee votes myself as a pollworker in Granby, Connecticut, and you are, I think, correct, Kevinstat, in saying that the absentee ballots are counted along with the normal municipal results. I'm sure that Vermont does the same, since 90% of the towns in Vermont are smaller than my hometown.

In Connecticut, all absentee votes must be recieved by the town clerk by 9:00 on Election Day in order to be counted. These votes are then counted separately from the other votes and are simply added in with the others to produce a total that is then reported to the Secretary of the State.

I'm sure absentee ballots are counted differently in New England than in, say, Maricopa County, Arizona.

[redcommander]

With 438 of 438 in:

Joe Miller (R)   47,027   50.90%
Lisa Murkowski (R)   45,359   49.10%

Miller +1,668. 

And now, the absentees, (possible) questioned votes, and the question of whether the Libertarian candidate jumps out of the race to let Murkowski run on the Libertarian line should she decide that's the course she wants to take....

Murkowski running as a Libertarian? LOL.  I mean, does she have any more libertarian instincts than I do (to wit, not much on the issues in play out there)? 

I would love to see Murkowski as the first Libertarian senator.

[cinyc]

I have counted absentee votes myself as a pollworker in Granby, Connecticut, and you are, I think, correct, Kevinstat, in saying that the absentee ballots are counted along with the normal municipal results. I'm sure that Vermont does the same, since 90% of the towns in Vermont are smaller than my hometown.

In Connecticut, all absentee votes must be recieved by the town clerk by 9:00 on Election Day in order to be counted. These votes are then counted separately from the other votes and are simply added in with the others to produce a total that is then reported to the Secretary of the State.

I'm sure absentee ballots are counted differently in New England than in, say, Maricopa County, Arizona.

Alaska and many other states allow absentees to trickle in well past election day as long as it's postmarked on or before election day.  Those states separate out absentees, and many don't even start counting them until a week or two after election day.  New York is like that; Alaska is even more like that.  Plus, because the absentee and early votes in Alaska are only sorted by House District, they aren't included in the precinct tally, but separated out in the precinct report.

For what it's worth, not all HDs are reporting early votes in the pdfs at the Alaska Elections website.  Anchorage, in particular, seems to be missing (which would favor Murkowski). (Edit: It's since been added - I need to redownload). But the overall tally of the votes from the 40 pdfs I used to make my maps is lower than the total reported by the Alaska Elections website, and shows Miller leading by a larger margin - over 2,000.  Part of that may be one Anchorage precinct not reporting in the precinct-level pdfs.  But I don't think that precinct has enough votes to explain the overall difference.  The Anchorage early votes might be included in the overall tally.

Lewis Trondheim knows a lot about Alaska absentee and early votes, and may be able to explain who usually votes in them.  I'm going to try to go back to the last contested primary to see if they came in more heavily from one region or another.

[redcommander]

I didn't catch this last night, but Vermont Democrats nominated a gay man for Lt. Governor. There was also a gay candidate for Auditor, but he lost the primary.

CA back when elected a gay man to the worthless Lt Governor spot: Mike Curb. Of course we also elected a gay governor, until I guess he decided to marry a beard.

Reagan

LOL I love it.

[Mr. Morden]

With 438 of 438 in:

Joe Miller (R)   47,027   50.90%
Lisa Murkowski (R)   45,359   49.10%

Miller +1,668. 

And now, the absentees, (possible) questioned votes, and the question of whether the Libertarian candidate jumps out of the race to let Murkowski run on the Libertarian line should she decide that's the course she wants to take....

Murkowski running as a Libertarian? LOL.  I mean, does she have any more libertarian instincts than I do (to wit, not much on the issues in play out there)? 

Yeah, she'd be a big government Libertarian.  Kind of an oxymoron.  But, as I understand it, it's her only way on the November ballot.  Murkowski is too late to run on her own independent line.  The Alaskan Independence Party didn't run a candidate, which means she can't do an AIP switcheroo.   So it's either get the Libertarian to back out and run on that line, wage a write-in campaign, or fold.

Why wouldn't she fold?  The vast majority of people who lose a primary simply end their campaigns.  Why would Murkowski be any different?

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Lisa Murkowski is about as libertarian as Generalissimo Franco, so that's not going to happen

Well the Libertarian Party did nominate Bob Barr and Wayne Allyn Root in 2008, though I would hope the Alaska state party has a little more principle than that. Lisa Murkowski would really be a new low for a "Libertarian" candidate.

[tpfkaw]

If she gets the ballot line through a legitimate method, I'm going green avatar.  Not that I think that's likely.

[Dgov]

Why wouldn't she fold?  The vast majority of people who lose a primary simply end their campaigns.  Why would Murkowski be any different?

Because she feels entitled to the seat.  It was given to her by her father after all, and people like that are generally extremely sore losers.  See Specter, Crist, Davis, etc.

It wouldn't be the first time something like this happened either.  Wally Hickel did something similar in 1990 with the AIP.

[redcommander]

I think it would be a good move. It could help the Libertarians to break through the electoral barrier if she became the first elected Libertarian senator.

[SvenssonRS]

I think it would be a good move. It could help the Libertarians to break through the electoral barrier if she became the first elected Libertarian senator.

I honestly doubt we'll see much more of Murkowski if the absentees sink her. It's a bit late to be running a campaign like that, and there are very, very, VERY few moderates in Alaska anyway, so she wouldn't have much a vote base.

[redcommander]

I think it would be a good move. It could help the Libertarians to break through the electoral barrier if she became the first elected Libertarian senator.

I honestly doubt we'll see much more of Murkowski if the absentees sink her. It's a bit late to be running a campaign like that, and there are very, very, VERY few moderates in Alaska anyway, so she wouldn't have much a vote base.

Not every conservative minded person votes in a primary.

[Torie]

It isn't happening, among other things, because she would lose anyway. I mean, what is her base?  Are the Dems all going to vote for her (and abandon their nominee?), because they will need to - all of them effectively. It is not as if Miller is not a competent candidate. He is

As I said, it isn't happening. I don't view Murkowski as a kamikaze type, nor one totally oblivious to any sense of dignity.


Miller I hope can get used to the heat in DC in the summer.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I think it would be a good move. It could help the Libertarians to break through the electoral barrier if she became the first elected Libertarian senator.

If the Libertarian Party wanted to give up any semblance of libertarianism and just become the Electoral Whore Party, sure.

Murkowski is truly awful, probably one of the worst people in the Senate. She's bad on just about every issue I can think of. Since being appointed to office by her father she has had a consistent record of supporting war, abortion, corporatism, bailouts, pork, the police state, big government, etc., etc.

[tpfkaw]

What I said on another forum:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[cinyc]

Why wouldn't she fold?  The vast majority of people who lose a primary simply end their campaigns.  Why would Murkowski be any different?

Because she feels entitled to the seat.  It was given to her by her father after all, and people like that are generally extremely sore losers.  See Specter, Crist, Davis, etc.

It wouldn't be the first time something like this happened either.  Wally Hickel did something similar in 1990 with the AIP.

What Torie said plus the fact that Alaska Republicans are splintered along old-guard, new-guard lines.  Old-guard Murkowski absolutely hates new-guard Palin, who backed new-guard Miller.  The old-guard wing of the party might rather see Murkowski run and a Democrat win than Miller win.

FYI- the Democratic nominee is the mayor of Seward.

[Lief 🗽]

If she gets the ballot line through a legitimate method, I'm going green avatar.  Not that I think that's likely.

I'm sure all 26 members of the Libertarian Party will be crushed.

[cinyc]

I've gone through all of the recent precinct reports:

-Despite 438 of 438 precincts supposedly being in, one Anchorage precinct, Laurel/Dowling, reports no results in any primary.  That precinct is in HD 30, which went 53.4-46.5 Murkowski.  It has around 1600 eligible voters, 500 Republicans and 1100 non-enrolled types.  Murkowski could get a slight bump when they find those votes - perhaps 35 votes, if it votes at the HD-30 margin and turnout.

-There are no early votes reported at all from the Kenai Peninsula region.  This may be because, according to the Alaska elections website, early voting needed to be done at the regional election office for the jurisdiction where a voter is registered, and Kenai's regional office is in Juneau, a plane ride away.  Thus, "early" votes from the Kenai Peninsula would be treated as in-person absentees, which haven't been counted.  Given how the Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak broke for Miller, that should favor him.  The same is true for the coastal Bush districts and Southeast Alaska outside Juneau - their regional offices are in Nome and Juneau, and there weren't many early votes outside the Nome and Juneau districts.  That might favor Murkowski.

-Murkowksi DID win the early vote reported so far, 54.1%-45.9%.  She lost the in-precinct vote 51.1%-48.9% - a 5.2 point swing.   Miller won the precincts with a significant (>10) early vote by an even higher percentage 52.5%-47.5%.

-There weren't many early votes to begin with - just 2,968 on the Republican side, or 3.2% of the total tally.  

-Roughly 70% of voters took the Republican ballot, 30% the ADL ballot.  Something to keep in mind when the total number of absentees received is reported.   70% of the 7,600 reportedly in as of yesterday is  about 5,300.  70% of the 16,000 absentees reportedly requested is 11,200.  In the best case scenario, if all 16,000 absentees come in and are Republican ballots, Murkowski would have to win them by roughly 55-45.    If only 5,300 absentees come in, Murkowski would have to win them roughly 65-35.  The real number needed will likely be somewhere in between.   But all possible percentages are higher than her early vote percentage.

Miller should still win this.  Murkowski would have to do about 10-points better in the absentees than in the early votes to pull it out.  

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I didn't catch this last night, but Vermont Democrats nominated a gay man for Lt. Governor. There was also a gay candidate for Auditor, but he lost the primary.

CA back when elected a gay man to the worthless Lt Governor spot: Mike Curb. Of course we also elected a gay governor, until I guess he decided to marry a beard.

Damn, that makes me want to listen to the theme song from Kelly's Heroes but its far to late at night.

I think it would be a good move. It could help the Libertarians to break through the electoral barrier if she became the first elected Libertarian senator.

Why cling to someone like Murkowski? Its like Conservatives clinging to Vitter simply because he is a conservative. Murkowski respresents the absolute worst in Alaska politics. There is a reason Palin had an 80% approval rating at one point and that is because she broke the stranglehold of the three Republican dynasties and their minions. Murkowski's appointment was the height of Nepotisms. "Here Lisa, take daddy's senate seat", is basically what Frank Murkowski said to her. She almost lost in the 2004 GOP primary. He not only lost in 2006, but came in third, somewhat because of that, somewhat because of ethics, scandals, incompetence etc, and the mostly the combined effect of a power hungry beast acting like he thinks he is above the law.

The only reason Murkowski had any sympathy was because she was a bullwork against Palin and as such non-Palin Presidential candidate supporters and cheerleaders in DC hyped her as the anti-Palin, female Alaskan. She is the "culture of corruption" which the Dems railed against in 2006 (mostly just to get votes and win power, as we now see). Yet it is the very same liberals and even many moderate Republicans pounding the same drum against the GOP b/c her projected loss, that they pounded in 2006 against the very behavior within the GOP THAT MURKOWSKI REPRESENTS!!!!!!!!!!

[SvenssonRS]

Well, look at that. Fun fact: the guy Murkowski was nearly embarrassed by in 2004 was also named Miller.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I presume that the people who are the most motivated to pull an absentee ballot are precisely the type of people who would be voting Miller than Murkowski, so I don't think the Senator is going to get much love on that front.

This result here should be a serious wake-up call to anyone following the November 2010 elections -- voters are pissed, and they're doing crazy things at the ballot box to show it. Don't think that "oh, x is safe because his district is too Democratic," or "y would never flip, the incumbent is just too entrenched."

I kinda wish the tea party would have tried taking out Don Young. Now there's someone who deserves to lose.

Alaska Republican primary voters = electorate at large? Not exactly.

It is a shame that Young was spared. BTW Blanche Lincoln should really hope Murkowski finds some other ballot line since it would mean she would not be the incumbent Senator losing by the most this year. Murkowski would probably pull around 12%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know, Miller will probably be the most "Democratic-looking" Republican Senators. He looks like a liberal college professor or something.

[King]

He looks like he might be related to Dennis Miller.

But yeah, the folsky Alaskan nature walker outfits he wears does add a hint of exterior liberalism.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I see guys that look like him in Minneapolis strip clubs all the time. Actually he basically looks like those bearded orgcore punk guys my neighborhood is full of only 15-20 years older, so I guess it makes sense.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

He's a Stinson away from being the first hipster Senator.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Alaska Republican primary voters = electorate at large? Not exactly.

Oh, please don't make the mistake that I'm talking about Alaska alone. We've already seen a near unprecedented number of frontrunners lose their primaries, including numerous incumbent Senators. This goes far deeper than just one seat.