2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[SvenssonRS]

Unfortunately for you, yucky Murkowski cannot run as an independent, due to the fact that Alaska's independent filing deadline is long since past.

Good. That's one less Liebermanned candidacy to ruin another election.

[cinyc]

Well, we're now at 429/438 precincts - it's tightened up a certain bit:

Miller - 45,909 (51.09%)
Murkowski - 43,949 (48.91%)

Anyone have any idea how many absentees, etc. are left.

About 16,000 requested, 7,600 of which have come in so far.  Of course, some of those will be for the Democratic primary.  There will be 3 counts - the first on the 31st, and two subsequent counts of absentees that come in after then in early September.

Looking at the last Cards Cast report together with the most recent update of precincts reporting by House District, what's left is:

One big precinct in the Mat-Su Valley, Snowshoe in HD-16 (2522 RV).  It's near Wasilla. 

And Eight precincts in the Bush:
One in HD-6 - either Marshall (19 RV) or Stevens Village (83 RV);
Two in HD-37 - Ekwok (78 RV) and St. Paul Island (332 RV);
One in HD-38 - Bethel #3 (1214 RV); and
Four in HD-40 - Barrow (1018 RV), Browerville (1541 RV), Atqasuk (136 RV) and Point Hope (373 RV).

Also, Republican turnout in the Fairbanks-area military districts was extremely low, suggesting there may be a lot of absentees from there.

Supposing Murkowski comes out of the precinct count down by 1,500, if 10,000 absentees are returned, 7,500 of them Republican absentees, she'd have to win them 60-40.  Possible, but not terribly likely.

[Sam Spade]

Honestly, the Miller upset of Murkowski, if it does happen, will be one of the most surprising primary results that I can recall in recent memory.  imho

[cinyc]

Vermont D-Gov is fully in.  Shumlin won by 190.

The maps.  First, VT-Gov D:


Dunne: Blue   
Markowitz: Green   
Racine: Red   
Shumlin: Yellow   
Bartlett: Orange
Tie: Gray
No town polls: White

Next, VT-House R:


Beaudry: Blue
Mitchell: Green
Stern: Red
Tie: Gray
No town polls: White

Beaudry won by almost 600 votes, with a handful of precincts still uncounted or no Republican votes (in dark gray; they were counted in the governor's race).  A definite North-South pattern here.

Town name map, for reference:

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I presume that the people who are the most motivated to pull an absentee ballot are precisely the type of people who would be voting Miller than Murkowski, so I don't think the Senator is going to get much love on that front.

This result here should be a serious wake-up call to anyone following the November 2010 elections -- voters are pissed, and they're doing crazy things at the ballot box to show it. Don't think that "oh, x is safe because his district is too Democratic," or "y would never flip, the incumbent is just too entrenched."

I kinda wish the tea party would have tried taking out Don Young. Now there's someone who deserves to lose.

[Lunar]

I presume that the people who are the most motivated to pull an absentee ballot are precisely the type of people who would be voting Miller than Murkowski, so I don't think the Senator is going to get much love on that front.

This result here should be a serious wake-up call to anyone following the November 2010 elections -- voters are pissed, and they're doing crazy things at the ballot box to show it. Don't think that "oh, x is safe because his district is too Democratic," or "y would never flip, the incumbent is just too entrenched."

I kinda wish the tea party would have tried taking out Don Young. Now there's someone who deserves to lose.

Alaska is especially karazee tho

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I presume that the people who are the most motivated to pull an absentee ballot are precisely the type of people who would be voting Miller than Murkowski, so I don't think the Senator is going to get much love on that front.

This result here should be a serious wake-up call to anyone following the November 2010 elections -- voters are pissed, and they're doing crazy things at the ballot box to show it. Don't think that "oh, x is safe because his district is too Democratic," or "y would never flip, the incumbent is just too entrenched."

I kinda wish the tea party would have tried taking out Don Young. Now there's someone who deserves to lose.

Alaska is especially karazee tho

Especially true, considering they were acting on the advice of Ms. Palin.

[Sam Spade]

I presume that the people who are the most motivated to pull an absentee ballot are precisely the type of people who would be voting Miller than Murkowski, so I don't think the Senator is going to get much love on that front.

This result here should be a serious wake-up call to anyone following the November 2010 elections -- voters are pissed, and they're doing crazy things at the ballot box to show it. Don't think that "oh, x is safe because his district is too Democratic," or "y would never flip, the incumbent is just too entrenched."

I kinda wish the tea party would have tried taking out Don Young. Now there's someone who deserves to lose.

Alaska is especially karazee tho

You know, I looked through Joe Miller's qualifications earlier today - it's not like he's a bad candidate at all - Yale Law School grad, West Point grad, US magistrate judge.

Usually people like that are quite well-spoken, not to mention very smart (like Mike Lee in Utah).  I should really watch the debate between him and Murkowski if I can find it.  Wouldn't be surprised if he beat her badly.  She's never been very smart.

[Lunar]

I presume that the people who are the most motivated to pull an absentee ballot are precisely the type of people who would be voting Miller than Murkowski, so I don't think the Senator is going to get much love on that front.

This result here should be a serious wake-up call to anyone following the November 2010 elections -- voters are pissed, and they're doing crazy things at the ballot box to show it. Don't think that "oh, x is safe because his district is too Democratic," or "y would never flip, the incumbent is just too entrenched."

I kinda wish the tea party would have tried taking out Don Young. Now there's someone who deserves to lose.

Alaska is especially karazee tho

You know, I looked through Joe Miller's qualifications earlier today - it's not like he's a bad candidate at all - Yale Law School grad, West Point grad, US magistrate judge.

Usually people like that are quite well-spoken, not to mention very smart (like Mike Lee in Utah).  I should really watch the debate between him and Murkowski if I can find it.  Wouldn't be surprised if he beat her badly.  She's never been very smart.

I mean, yeah, it speaks for itself.  watch the 15 minute debate here: http://joemiller.us/index.php

[You kip if you want to...]

Can Miller win a general election or is he crazy like Angle?

[Lunar]

Can Miller win a general election or is he crazy like Angle?

He'll win.  He's articulate and not insane.

[SvenssonRS]

Can Miller win a general election or is he crazy like Angle?

He's basically Alaska's Mike Lee. He's far to the right, but intelligent enough that you'd never be able to tell. I can tell he's nowhere near as gaffe-prone as Angle - he's just not dumb enough to keep running his mouth like a maniac.

[xavier110]

He even uses the world ostensibly on his website. Endorsed.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Can Miller win a general election or is he crazy like Angle?

A better question: Can you even name his Democratic opponent?

If the answer is "no," then the answer to your questions are "yes" and "it doesn't matter" respectively.

[Dgov]

Can Miller win a general election or is he crazy like Angle?

No, he's actually turning out to be a pretty good candidate.  Also, this is Alaska--Dems barely won against a convicted felon in here in 2008.

[Holmes]

Will Rasmussen be out with a poll of the race within the next few days?

[cinyc]

Alaska finally released their precinct-level data.  Here are the current maps by House District.  Miller is in blue, Murkowski green, water features in light cyan.

Statewide:


Anchorage area:


Fairbanks area (Fairbanks-North Star Borough Boundary in Yellow [Yellow+Black when HD line follows it]):


Basically, Murkowski won the Bush big, except for HD-6 which arguably should be classified in the Fairbanks-Interior category.  She also carried most of Anchorage and Southeast Alaska.  Miller crushed Murkowski in the Mat-Su Valley and won Kenai/Kodiak and the Fairbanks-Interior region.    Turnout (which I can map, upon request) was much higher in the Mat-Su than much of the rest of the state.  So Miller won.

[homelycooking]

Here's the VT Dem primary map again, with stripes for the tied towns.

[cinyc]

And Alaska-Senate-R by precinct in Anchorage, Fairbanks-North Star Borough and the Mat-Su Valley:

Anchorage:


Western Fairbanks-North Star Borough:


Southern Mat-Su Valley:



I have to put some disclaimer about how I got the Mat-Su shapefile from the Mat-Su's website and they're not responsible for errors and stuff.

In both Fairbanks and the Mat-Su, the precincts at the edge of the inset map extend to the borough boundaries.  

The Fairbanks districts won by Murkowski are generally downtown or near the University.  The Mat-Su Valley Murkowski won is City of Palmer No. 1.

I didn't try to allocate the early votes by precinct.

[Sam Spade]

Miller's lead is down to 1500 with two precincts left.  Unless I'm wrong on the two precincts left in my memory, one is in Mat-Su valley, one is in the Bush.

[Torie]

Miller's lead is down to 1500 with two precincts left.  Unless I'm wrong on the two precincts left in my memory, one is in Mat-Su valley, one is in the Bush.

There is something ironic and odd and funny about the notion that the most pro establishment voters in Alaska live in the bush. One would have thought that bushies living 800 miles and a long and dangerous small private plane trip to anywhere that is actually somewhere,  were drug crazed, anti-establishment, anti social, loner curmudgeonly misfits, but no, they are the next best think to K Street types. Who knew? 

Anyway, that is my thought for the day. Thanks for listening.

[Sam Spade]

Miller's lead is down to 1500 with two precincts left.  Unless I'm wrong on the two precincts left in my memory, one is in Mat-Su valley, one is in the Bush.

There is something ironic and odd and funny about the notion that the most pro establishment voters in Alaska live in the bush. One would have thought that bushies living 800 miles and a long and dangerous small private plane trip to anywhere that is actually somewhere,  were drug crazed, anti-establishment, anti social, loner curmudgeonly misfits, but no, they are the next best think to K Street types. Who knew? 

Anyway, that is my thought for the day. Thanks for listening.

Ya, that always seems to be rule for that place - don't endanger the gravy train.  Not the only place in America where that seems wrong of course.

[Dgov]

Miller's lead is down to 1500 with two precincts left.  Unless I'm wrong on the two precincts left in my memory, one is in Mat-Su valley, one is in the Bush.

There is something ironic and odd and funny about the notion that the most pro establishment voters in Alaska live in the bush. One would have thought that bushies living 800 miles and a long and dangerous small private plane trip to anywhere that is actually somewhere,  were drug crazed, anti-establishment, anti social, loner curmudgeonly misfits, but no, they are the next best think to K Street types. Who knew? 

Anyway, that is my thought for the day. Thanks for listening.

Well, they are the "Nowhere" in the "Bridge to nowhere" after all.

[cinyc]

Miller's lead is down to 1500 with two precincts left.  Unless I'm wrong on the two precincts left in my memory, one is in Mat-Su valley, one is in the Bush.

Yes.  By my count, Snowshoe, Mat-Su, with 973 Republicans and 1245 non-party members in HD-16 and Marshall, Alaska Interior, with 15 Republicans and 102 non-party members in HD-6.

If Snowshoe and Marshall break like the rest of their HDs, Miller should gain a net 115 votes or so when all precincts report.

There is something ironic and odd and funny about the notion that the most pro establishment voters in Alaska live in the bush. One would have thought that bushies living 800 miles and a long and dangerous small private plane trip to anywhere that is actually somewhere,  were drug crazed, anti-establishment, anti social, loner curmudgeonly misfits, but no, they are the next best think to K Street types. Who knew?  

Anyway, that is my thought for the day. Thanks for listening.

Many of the bushies in the interior (arguably) bush HD-6 probably fit your description to a T (though a good portion of the district is on the road network and not really all that bush).  The bushies in the coastal bush HDs tend to be more Alaska Native and vote like their Indian brethren do in the Lower 48 - for Democrats and incumbents.

Marshall is an Eskimo village, though.

Edit:  Looking at the new precinct-level data, it's Stevens Village that's still out in the Bush, not Marshall.  14 Republicans, 45 non-party members.  It's also heavily Eskimo.

[Lunar]

Is Vermont set in stone for a Shumlin win?