Updated "Big Three" Scenarios

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

FL, OH, and PA keep shifting, as well as some other "small change" states.  I think now this is what we're now looking at, as far as how late we have to stay up:

1. Either wins all three: Go to bed.
2. Bush wins any two: Go to bed.
3. Kerry wins PA+FL (or OH+FL): Bush needs Midwest Miracle
4. Kerry wins PA+OH: Make sure you have enough coffee filters

[kelpie]

1. Either wins all three: Go to bed.
2. Bush wins any two: Go to bed.

If the two Bush wins are OH and PA (and Kerry takes FL), Bush would still need either to hold NH or pick up a midwest state to make it.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

1. Either wins all three: Go to bed.
2. Bush wins any two: Go to bed.

If the two Bush wins are OH and PA (and Kerry takes FL), Bush would still need either to hold NH or pick up a midwest state to make it.

Well, first off, this is a highly unlikely scenario, and second, if Bush takes PA and OH, all he will need is ONE of NH, WI, MN, IA, NM, or OR.  The odds of Kerry winning all six of those is remote, especially if Bush has managed to steal PA from Kerry.

I suppose you'd still have to stay up, but not for long :-).

[Mort from NewYawk]

I really think it comes down to FL - a loss there by either candidate will leave only improbable electoral paths to victory.

I agree with you that Bush could survive the loss of OH and PA by simply winning two of the "Little Three" (WI, MN, IA). But if FL goes to Kerry along with either PA or OH, he needs a sweep of the "Little Three" to win, a much dicier proposition.

[Erc]

Assuming MI to Kerry, IA & NM to Bush

Bush wins 2 or more:  He wins.

Bush wins only OH:  He must win WI or MN to win

Bush wins only PA:  He must win WI, MN, or NH+HI+MECD2  to win

Bush wins only FL:  He must win WI, MN, HI, or NH to win.

Bush wins none:  Kerry wins.

[Alcon]

Assuming MI to Kerry, IA & NM to Bush

Bush wins 2 or more:  He wins.

Bush wins only OH:  He must win WI or MN to win

Bush wins only PA:  He must win WI, MN, or NH+HI+MECD2  to win

Bush wins only FL:  He must win WI, MN, HI, or NH to win.

Bush wins none:  Kerry wins.

IA is a pretty big assumption. Kerry has been up in some recent polls there.

[Bogart]

So has Bush.