If the election were held today

[Derek]

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I did a little more research. Remember saying that the election were held today is a big if.

So Maine-01, which voted over 60% for Obama, goes to Republicans before Minnesota and Iowa, which both only voted about 54% for him?

No I didn't feel like coloring the districts the correct shade of blue. It's stupid as hell anyways that they don't vote as a state. I checked out his approval rating there and it's 48% with 51% disapproval.

[Derek]

I think it would truly be a 50\50 election. Obama's campaigning skills will surely help him. But over 40% of Americans strongly disapprove of his job performance, which is pretty high considering his approval is still in the mid 40s.

The opponent also would matter. Mike Huckabee might be extremely strong in the South but not strong enough elsewhere to prevent bare Obama wins where they matter most. Romney would be more adept at winning the battleground states that both Parties need (OH, VA, FL, MO, NC, CO).

We do not have a parliamentary system, so there would be no snap election with little preparation and little time to expose weaknesses of candidates.   President Obama has taken his biggest risks with popularity at times when the immediate effect of transitory unpopularity are least  not only for himself but also for his Congressional majorities.

No Obama is just tone deaf. All of those states that you mentioned, Obama's highest approval rating is in MO at 46%.

[hcallega]

Obama is a far better campaigner than executive. He'll easily dispatch with his opponents, though he will win by a smaller margin than 2008, IMO.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama is a far better campaigner than executive. He'll easily dispatch with his opponents, though he will win by a smaller margin than 2008, IMO.

Obama wins NH, OH, NV, CO and either VA or Florida.

[Derek]

Obama is a far better campaigner than executive. He'll easily dispatch with his opponents, though he will win by a smaller margin than 2008, IMO.

Obama wins NH, OH, NV, CO and either VA or Florida.

You think he'd win FL and VA today?

[nhmagic]

Obama is not winning NH in 2012 unless he backs off of people's money or someone like Palin wins the nod for the GOP, which she wont.  He cant generate the same enthusiasm with the youth in Durham, Dover, Portsmouth that he did the last time, too many delayed/broken promises that wont be fulfilled in time, like getting out of both wars.  It is critical for those areas, Concord to turn out for Obama to win.  Manch will also have to be even money.  He's not winning hearts and minds here with the oil spill either.

Though Derek, I think you're crazy about ME1.  Its not gonna happen.  Too many crunchies - visit Portland someday and youll see (thats not knocking the town, its pretty fun).  There are a lot of rural counties, but not enough to knock off Portland, Bangor (which i think is in CD1), and York/Ogunquit/Kittery-too many voters.  Maybe ME2 will fold.

[Derek]

Obama is not winning NH in 2012 unless he backs off of people's money or someone like Palin wins the nod for the GOP, which she wont.  He cant generate the same enthusiasm with the youth in Durham, Dover, Portsmouth that he did the last time, too many delayed/broken promises that wont be fulfilled in time, like getting out of both wars.  It is critical for those areas, Concord to turn out for Obama to win.  Manch will also have to be even money.  He's not winning hearts and minds here with the oil spill either.

Though Derek, I think you're crazy about ME1.  Its not gonna happen.  Too many crunchies - visit Portland someday and youll see (thats not knocking the town, its pretty fun).  There are a lot of rural counties, but not enough to knock off Portland, Bangor (which i think is in CD1), and York/Ogunquit/Kittery-too many voters.  Maybe ME2 will fold.

I know what you're saying. I just think states should vote as states as I call for in my Government Reform Bill. That's why I refuse to color it against the state's popular vote.

[feeblepizza]

His approval ratings are a sad, sad story, and what with unemployment close to 11%.... I'd have to say no

[justW353]

His approval ratings are a sad, sad story, and what with unemployment close to 11%.... I'd have to say no

You're a little off...more like 9...which is not close to 11...that's a difference of six million people...

[feeblepizza]

His approval ratings are a sad, sad story, and what with unemployment close to 11%.... I'd have to say no

You're a little off...more like 9...which is not close to 11...that's a difference of six million people...

The unemployment rate is 10.6%. I'm no math whiz, but I think that's close to 11

[justW353]

His approval ratings are a sad, sad story, and what with unemployment close to 11%.... I'd have to say no

You're a little off...more like 9...which is not close to 11...that's a difference of six million people...

The unemployment rate is 10.6%. I'm no math whiz, but I think that's close to 11

...http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=usunemployment&met=unemployment_rate&tdim=true&dl=en&hl=en&q=unemployment+rate

Obviously you're not a math whiz...You haven't even  learned fractions yet.

[TheGreatOne]

It really depends who the Republicans select.  If its Palin or Huckabee then he will win handily.  Right now I think he would lose if the Republican nominee appears credible.

[Derek]

His approval ratings are a sad, sad story, and what with unemployment close to 11%.... I'd have to say no

You're a little off...more like 9...which is not close to 11...that's a difference of six million people...

It's higher than 9 and didn't Obama promise it wouldn't go above 8%? Enough said.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And why would people go with Mitt Romney, he is another Bush. We have had 2 recessions under the previous administration. I don't think Mitt or McCain would have gotton the unemployment rate to where it should be at around six percent, any more than Obama.

[Derek]

And why would people go with Mitt Romney, he is another Bush. We have had 2 recessions under the previous administration. I don't think Mitt or McCain would have gotton the unemployment rate to where it should be at around six percent, any more than Obama.

Yes they would have because LIKE REAGAN they would have cut taxes and that would allow the economy to grow. Bush inherited the Clinton/Gore recession which started in MARCH 2000. By March 2003 we were experiencing economic growth which is only ONE YEAR AFTER Bush's first budget went into effect. The other recession you're referring to didn't occur until the democrats had spent almost an entire year in control. Their passing of an increase in the minimum wage caused worker to lay off newer employees and increased the unemployment rate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bush said during 2008 that the economy isn't in recession. Both parties would have passed a simulus bill in 2009 and the jobs that were already gone by then had already left. The stimulus bill just saved the jobs that were left over from the recession.

[Derek]

Bush said during 2008 that the economy isn't in recession. Both parties would have passed a simulus bill in 2009 and the jobs that were already gone by then had already left. The stimulus bill just saved the jobs that were left over from the recession.

It saved government jobs, but killed the private sector. Obama saying that it could be at 15% isn't helping him either. Heck, why doesn't he just say it could be 50% unemployment? He sounds like a teenager who always says it's someone else's fault and it's not helping the economy. He scares small businesses because since the bailouts it's been established that small businesses can't succeed unless they donate and loan tons of money to politicians. He's politicizing our border security for the sake of building up the democratic base for the future and is trying to ram his own version of immigration "reform" now because he knows he's going to lose congress.