If the election were held today

[redcommander]

Would Obama win reelection or not? Discuss.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Nope, thankfully not.

[SvenssonRS]

As it stands, not a chance in hell.

[redcommander]

I would also say no. Judging by state by state polling for him right now, a electoral map that would play out between him and a generic Republican would probably be this.

[pbrower2a]

Dicey.

[Devilman88]

If the election was held today, there would be about an 8 point swing toward the Republicans.. The map would look like this..

The above map is an 8 point swing in each state.

[xavier110]

He would lose.

[Bo]

Depends on who his opponent is. I think he could beat Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich, and Babrour, but would lose to Romney and Daniels.

[Derek]

http://

CA would be the closest state. Look at his approval ratings. He is at 49% in NJ and MI, 48% in ME, and only 54% in NY.

[fezzyfestoon]

Yeah, easily.  No one wants what they have, but they definitely don't want what they could have.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The range for the Obama electoral map has greatly been reduced from 312-365 in 2008 to around 255-289. He can still win, but narrowly this time. It depends really on the 2010 election and the economy, but he can still win, yes.

[pbrower2a]

Of course we would have a campaign apparatus in operation and plenty of television and radio ads. it might be a very negative campaign against any opponent. Even an electoral success would come with a bitter cost to America as a whole -- whoever wins.



 

[sentinel]

Good thing the election is not today!

[Sasquatch]

No.

The result would probably look like 2004, only give New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to the GOP.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Hard to say, since we would have had months of campaigning running up to this. I'll guess yes, since an Obama who has been consistently out on the stump since the beginning of the year would have much better numbers than he does in real life.

[Sbane]

He would lose.

This right here would be the result against a generic Republican. Depending on the actual candidate the Republicans could do even better. But considering the kind of talent they have, they would probably do worse. Someone like Palin or Newt would lose even today.

[Derek]

He would lose.

This right here would be the result against a generic Republican. Depending on the actual candidate the Republicans could do even better. But considering the kind of talent they have, they would probably do worse. Someone like Palin or Newt would lose even today.

You don't have to have talent. All that's needed is a straight talker who says what they mean and means what they say.

[Derek]

http://

Alabama: GOP 58-40
Alaska: GOP 61-37
Arkansas: GOP 61-38
Arizona: GOP 60-39
California: Obama 59-41
Colorado: GOP 57-42
Connecticut: Obama 53-47
Delaware: Obama 54-46
Florida: GOP 54-46
Georgia: GOP 57-41
Hawaii: Obama 77-23
Idaho: GOP 70-30
Illinois: Obama 56-44
Indiana: GOP 58-41
Iowa: Obama 51-49
Kansas: GOP 63-37
Kentucky: GOP 63-37
Louisiana: GOP 59-40
Maine: GOP 51-48
Maryland: Obama 59-40
Massachusetts: Obama 63-37
Michigan: GOP 51-49
Minnesota: Obama 53-46
Mississippi: GOP 62-38
Missouri: GOP 54-46
Montana: GOP 58-42
Nebraska: GOP 57-41
Nevada: GOP 51-48
New Hampshire: GOP 50-50
New Jersey: GOP 51-49
New Mexico: GOP 52-48
New York: Obama 54-44
North Carolina: GOP 55-45
North Dakota: GOP 57-41
Ohio: GOP 50-49
Oklahoma: GOP 62-38
Oregon: Obama 52-47
Pennsylvania: GOP 52-48
Rhode Island: Obama 55-45
South Carolina: GOP 54-46
South Dakota:GOP 59-41
Tennessee: GOP 57-42
Texas: GOP 60-40
Utah: GOP 70-30
Vermont: Obama 60-39
Virginia: GOP 54-44
Washington: Obama 53-46
West Virginia: GOP 60-39
Wisconsin: GOP 50-49
Wyoming: GOP 68-31

[Derek]

http://

that's a correction

[Derek]

http://

I did a little more research. Remember saying that the election were held today is a big if.

[fezzyfestoon]

There's no such thing as a generic candidate.

[tmthforu94]

http://

I did a little more research. Remember saying that the election were held today is a big if.

So Maine-01, which voted over 60% for Obama, goes to Republicans before Minnesota and Iowa, which both only voted about 54% for him?

[DariusNJ]

I think it would truly be a 50\50 election. Obama's campaigning skills will surely help him. But over 40% of Americans strongly disapprove of his job performance, which is pretty high considering his approval is still in the mid 40s.

[Derek]

I think it would truly be a 50\50 election. Obama's campaigning skills will surely help him. But over 40% of Americans strongly disapprove of his job performance, which is pretty high considering his approval is still in the mid 40s.

Campaigning skills don't work for a sitting president. I also think he was overrated in 2008 and that it was the collapse of the housing market that got him in. Remember democrats are always shown to do about 5 points better than they ever do anyways.

[pbrower2a]

I think it would truly be a 50\50 election. Obama's campaigning skills will surely help him. But over 40% of Americans strongly disapprove of his job performance, which is pretty high considering his approval is still in the mid 40s.

The opponent also would matter. Mike Huckabee might be extremely strong in the South but not strong enough elsewhere to prevent bare Obama wins where they matter most. Romney would be more adept at winning the battleground states that both Parties need (OH, VA, FL, MO, NC, CO).

We do not have a parliamentary system, so there would be no snap election with little preparation and little time to expose weaknesses of candidates.   President Obama has taken his biggest risks with popularity at times when the immediate effect of transitory unpopularity are least  not only for himself but also for his Congressional majorities.