Hawaii now a swing State?

[UK.USfan]

I see that Hawaii is now a swing State with Bush in a slight lead?....whats going on?. I thought this was a solid Democrat State.
Dick Cheyney was there today to drum up support too!

I know its only 4 EV, but why the sudden turn around?

[pollwatch99-a]

There have only been 2 polls in Oct.  Not national pollsters.
Bottom line is nobody knows if these are just bad polls or whether it is a real opportunity. 

SMS Research          10/17-20  612 LV        Bush +1   (9% undecided)
Honolulu Advertiser 10/13-18  600 LV        Bush +0.7 (15% undecided)
 

[angus]

not in my book.

but I think the ancient conventional wisdom is that hawaiians support the incumbent.  but hawaiians are also into a *huge* role for government in social-service spending.  thus the ambivalence.

then there's the polling data (a largely overrated source of information)

[Sam Spade]

I am right now extremely ambivalent about Hawaii, with its notorious pro-incumbent bias and an extremely popular, smart GOP governor there right now, that you might see some odd prediction out of me.  Granted, Inouye is on the ballot this year and that should help the Dems a little, I just don't know how much.  If we're basing it on campaign rallies, Cheney's last night was a big hit whereas Gore's missed entirely.

Keep in mind, this gain of Bush (however much it is) won't help him much in the popular vote.  The notorious anti-incumbent bias of North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana will probably balance it out. 

[Whacker77]

About 10,000 people showed up for Dick Cheney's rally at Hickam Air Force Base last night.  People began arriving at 8:30 for a rally that didn't begin until 11:00 PM local time.  That ain't to shabby considering only 1,200 people showed up algore's rally.  We'll know tomorrow at 11:00 PM EST if it really was a swing state.

[pollwatch99-a]

No guts, no glory

I will boldly predict a Bush upset. 

Why?  Terrorism and being attacked struck a nerve in Hawaii.   So why not NY/NJ.  Since I live in NY, I can truly say we've got all the liberals that cannot fit in CA and MA

[J. J.]

Three weeks ago, I would have said that Bush had about as much of a chance of winning HI as of winning CA.  Today, I just don't know.

[zachman]

I'd need to see Bush above 47% in a poll to call it a swing state. I'd say Kerry by 5% now. It may react to the potential news that Kerry wins big on the East coast, and then Democrats don't show up. If Hawaii is close, it will be a long night.

[Alcon]

Man are the recounters going to have it lucky. First they get a free trip to Florida, and now they might get one to Hawaii. I'm jealous.

[Dave from Michigan]

I would be  surprised if Hawaii goes republican.  I think Kerry will win it by at least 6%. 

[TheOldLine]

There have only been 2 polls in Oct.  Not national pollsters.
Bottom line is nobody knows if these are just bad polls or whether it is a real opportunity. 

SMS Research          10/17-20  612 LV        Bush +1   (9% undecided)
Honolulu Advertiser 10/13-18  600 LV        Bush +0.7 (15% undecided)
 

Don't forget that we also know that the campaign internal polls have shown it to be very close, with Dick Cheney, Al Gore, and Vanessa Kerry all sent to HI over the weekend.

TheOldLine