NY State Senate, Mejias is running against Hannon (district 6)

[Smash255]

Normally I wouldn't start a thread on State Senate races, but with the Dems having a slim majority in the State Senate and with redistricting likely hanging in the balance.

The first big race has been announced.  Former Nassau County Legislator Dave Mejias (who was my former rep in the county legislator and ran against Peter King for Congress in 06) is challenging longterm State Senator Kemp Hannon, who represents the 6th district.  Hannon (who has served in the State Senate for over 20 years, and over a decade in the Assembly prior to that) nearly lost in 2008 to newcomer Kristen McElroy.  I am in this district, though it will be the first time I will be voting in it (I use to lived in Fuschillo's district)  The 6th Senate district has a slight Democratic enrollment edge and is FAR more Democratic than Mejias's old Legislative district and King's Congressional seat.

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http://mobile.newsday.com/inf/infomo;JSESSIONID=0CD7F8CB492BF7D6D7BB.2718?site=newsday&view=page7&feed:a=newsday_5min&feed:c=longisland&feed:i=1.2016277&nopaging=1

[King]

Does a red star with a trailing ribbon as a political symbol hold significance in Nassau or is that just a coincidence?

[Mr.Phips]

This is pretty good news for Democrats.  This district leans Democratic, far more Democratic than Mejias' legislative district and NY-03, where Mejias got 44% in 2006.  With big wins at the top of the ticket by Cuomo, Schumer, and Gillibrand, Mejias has a pretty good shot. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Once you get the stink of loser on you...

[Mr.Phips]

Once you get the stink of loser on you...

That certainly isnt hurting Steve Chabot and Steve Stivers, is it?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is pretty good news for Democrats.  This district leans Democratic, far more Democratic than Mejias' legislative district and NY-03, where Mejias got 44% in 2006.  With big wins at the top of the ticket by Cuomo, Schumer, and Gillibrand, Mejias has a pretty good shot. 

Once you get the stink of loser on you...

That certainly isnt hurting Steve Chabot and Steve Stivers, is it?

What's that they say about a rising tide and boats?

[cinyc]

This is pretty good news for Democrats.  This district leans Democratic, far more Democratic than Mejias' legislative district and NY-03, where Mejias got 44% in 2006.  With big wins at the top of the ticket by Cuomo, Schumer, and Gillibrand, Mejias has a pretty good shot.  

Expected blowouts by Cuomo, Schumer and Gillibrand may keep Democrats home, actually.  Republicans may be more motivated to get out and vote.  Mejias might be better off if one of the big 3 races was actually competitive.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Dave Mejias for School Board 2012!

[Mr.Phips]

This is pretty good news for Democrats.  This district leans Democratic, far more Democratic than Mejias' legislative district and NY-03, where Mejias got 44% in 2006.  With big wins at the top of the ticket by Cuomo, Schumer, and Gillibrand, Mejias has a pretty good shot.  

Expected blowouts by Cuomo, Schumer and Gillibrand may keep Democrats home, actually.  Republicans may be more motivated to get out and vote.  Mejias might be better off if one of the big 3 races was actually competitive.

I dont understand your logic.  So in North Dakota, Democrats should be more motivated to go and vote for Earl Pomeroy because Hoeven is cruising at the top of the ticket?

[cinyc]

This is pretty good news for Democrats.  This district leans Democratic, far more Democratic than Mejias' legislative district and NY-03, where Mejias got 44% in 2006.  With big wins at the top of the ticket by Cuomo, Schumer, and Gillibrand, Mejias has a pretty good shot.  

Expected blowouts by Cuomo, Schumer and Gillibrand may keep Democrats home, actually.  Republicans may be more motivated to get out and vote.  Mejias might be better off if one of the big 3 races was actually competitive.

I dont understand your logic.  So in North Dakota, Democrats should be more motivated to go and vote for Earl Pomeroy because Hoeven is cruising at the top of the ticket?

If Democrats think Cuomo, Schumer and Gillibrand will win in blowouts, they might think that it really doesn't matter if they show up to vote.  So they'd stay home, which could affect down-ticket races.  Republicans always can hope to show up and see an upset or send a protest message to Cuomo, Schumer and Gillibrand that we don't agree with their coronation.  It works the same way in a state where top-of-the-ticket Republicans are expected to dominate.  Though it probably works best for the party that has the national wave behind it.

[Smash255]

Does a red star with a trailing ribbon as a political symbol hold significance in Nassau or is that just a coincidence?

No, just part of the design.

[Brittain33]

If Democrats think Cuomo, Schumer and Gillibrand will win in blowouts, they might think that it really doesn't matter if they show up to vote. 

The impact there may depend on the strength of state and local parties. New York is a state with an active Democratic Party and I think that part of Schumer's strategy is to get out the vote among loyalists as well as to blanket the airwaves.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is pretty good news for Democrats.  This district leans Democratic, far more Democratic than Mejias' legislative district and NY-03, where Mejias got 44% in 2006.  With big wins at the top of the ticket by Cuomo, Schumer, and Gillibrand, Mejias has a pretty good shot.  

Expected blowouts by Cuomo, Schumer and Gillibrand may keep Democrats home, actually.  Republicans may be more motivated to get out and vote.  Mejias might be better off if one of the big 3 races was actually competitive.

I dont understand your logic.  So in North Dakota, Democrats should be more motivated to go and vote for Earl Pomeroy because Hoeven is cruising at the top of the ticket?

I think the logic is that if Democratic victories are assured, then it will be more difficult getting Democratic voters out to the polls because they know their votes aren't important.

While it will be true for Republican voters that they too have little reason to show up for the top-ticket races, it will simultaneously be true that they have other compelling reasons to show up at the polls.

[Mr.Phips]

This is pretty good news for Democrats.  This district leans Democratic, far more Democratic than Mejias' legislative district and NY-03, where Mejias got 44% in 2006.  With big wins at the top of the ticket by Cuomo, Schumer, and Gillibrand, Mejias has a pretty good shot.  

Expected blowouts by Cuomo, Schumer and Gillibrand may keep Democrats home, actually.  Republicans may be more motivated to get out and vote.  Mejias might be better off if one of the big 3 races was actually competitive.

I dont understand your logic.  So in North Dakota, Democrats should be more motivated to go and vote for Earl Pomeroy because Hoeven is cruising at the top of the ticket?

I think the logic is that if Democratic victories are assured, then it will be more difficult getting Democratic voters out to the polls because they know their votes aren't important.

While it will be true for Republican voters that they too have little reason to show up for the top-ticket races, it will simultaneously be true that they have other compelling reasons to show up at the polls.

Democrats dont have other compelling reasons to show up at the polls?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is pretty good news for Democrats.  This district leans Democratic, far more Democratic than Mejias' legislative district and NY-03, where Mejias got 44% in 2006.  With big wins at the top of the ticket by Cuomo, Schumer, and Gillibrand, Mejias has a pretty good shot.  

Expected blowouts by Cuomo, Schumer and Gillibrand may keep Democrats home, actually.  Republicans may be more motivated to get out and vote.  Mejias might be better off if one of the big 3 races was actually competitive.

I dont understand your logic.  So in North Dakota, Democrats should be more motivated to go and vote for Earl Pomeroy because Hoeven is cruising at the top of the ticket?

I think the logic is that if Democratic victories are assured, then it will be more difficult getting Democratic voters out to the polls because they know their votes aren't important.

While it will be true for Republican voters that they too have little reason to show up for the top-ticket races, it will simultaneously be true that they have other compelling reasons to show up at the polls.

Democrats dont have other compelling reasons to show up at the polls?

Just implying that it will be far easier to get Republicans out to the polls to vote than Democrats in general this year.

[cinyc]

Democrats dont have other compelling reasons to show up at the polls?

If the big 3 races are expected blowouts, not really.  Just like in the 2009 local New York elections.  And we all know how those turned out.

[Lunar]

Latest Siena Poll:

Plurality of Democrats want to reelect their State Senator

23% of Republicans say the same thing (60% want to try someone else)