Slate on the EVs

[Silent Hunter]

http://slate.msn.com/id/2108957/

Florida3: If Kerry loses in Florida and the rest of the map goes as expected (meaning no upsets in Arkansas, New Jersey, or elsewhere), he'll need to carry Hawaii, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, and two of the "Little Three": Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, to get to 270 electoral votes. With Florida, Kerry coasts to victory. Without Florida, he pretty much needs to run the table to win.

Discuss.

[KerryAlva]

http://slate.msn.com/id/2108957/

Florida3: If Kerry loses in Florida and the rest of the map goes as expected (meaning no upsets in Arkansas, New Jersey, or elsewhere), he'll need to carry Hawaii, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, and two of the "Little Three": Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, to get to 270 electoral votes. With Florida, Kerry coasts to victory. Without Florida, he pretty much needs to run the table to win.

Discuss.

I think if Kerry loses Florida that is 27 electoral votes.  He would only need to win Ohio and one of the "little 3" to negate Florida or overmatch Florida.

If Kerry loses Florida and Ohio, he'd better be on the phone to President Bush and he'd better have a good concession speech ready.

On the other hand, if Bush loses Ohio and Pennsylvania and all the little 3 and one of the southwestern states (Colorado, New Mexico, or Nevada), then he'd better be dialing President-Elect Kerry.

New Hampshire, I think, is all but a lock for Kerry

[muon2]

http://slate.msn.com/id/2108957/

Florida3: If Kerry loses in Florida and the rest of the map goes as expected (meaning no upsets in Arkansas, New Jersey, or elsewhere), he'll need to carry Hawaii, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, and two of the "Little Three": Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, to get to 270 electoral votes. With Florida, Kerry coasts to victory. Without Florida, he pretty much needs to run the table to win.

Discuss.

I think if Kerry loses Florida that is 27 electoral votes.  He would only need to win Ohio and one of the "little 3" to negate Florida or overmatch Florida.

If Kerry loses Florida and Ohio, he'd better be on the phone to President Bush and he'd better have a good concession speech ready.

On the other hand, if Bush loses Ohio and Pennsylvania and all the little 3 and one of the southwestern states (Colorado, New Mexico, or Nevada), then he'd better be dialing President-Elect Kerry.

New Hampshire, I think, is all but a lock for Kerry

Start with the 2000 Gore states.  Kerry is at 260, and we'll give him NH for 264. Without  IA, MN, and WI his number drops to 237. OH alone would not give him a win at only 257 EV. Adding one of the "little three" at best gets the total to 267, still 3 EV short of a win.

OH and one of the "little three" is not enough. Kerry needs OH and two of the three.

[Erc]

If Bush loses FL, he must take OH.  (Unless you believe Gallup).

He must also take either MN or WI  [in addition to NM & IA, which I believe are in the Bush bag right now.]

If Bush takes FL, then Kerry does have to run the table, since that puts Bush at 266 (with IA & NM).  He has to win every single other electoral vote out there but MECD2 in order to prevent Bush from getting to 269.

[The Vorlon]

This election boils down to utter simplicity actually.

Bush has 2 ways to get re-elected - I will call them, creatively enough, Plan A, and Plan A1.

Kerry has 2 ways to get elected, and they are essentially Not Plan A, and NOT Plan A1

Just about everybody gives Bush 222 EVs he can more or less rely upon:  If he loses any of these states it's over anyway, and the rest doesn't really matter anyhow...

Alabama 9     
Alaska 3   
Arizona 10       
Arkansas 6     
Georgia 15 
Idaho 4   
Indiana 11
Iowa     7
Kansas 6   
Kentucky 8   
Louisiana 9   
Mississippi 6
Missouri 11     
Montana 3 
Nebraska 5 
Nevada     5
North Carolina 15     
North Dakota 3 
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8   
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11     
Texas 34     
Utah 5     
Virginia 13       
West Virginia 5 
Wyoming 3     

I would be inclined to toss Nevada (5) onto this list. but in the anaylsis it really does not matter a great deal.

Plan A

Baseline => 222 EVs
Win Florida @ 27 EVs => 249 EVs
Win Ohio @ 20 Evs => 269 EVs and it's all over

Plan A1

Baseline => 222 EVs
Win Florida @ 27 EVs => 249 EVs

plus From the Following States - win 20 EVs

The following state could, with varying degrees of probability, be deemed to be potential Bush victories...

Wisconsin (10 Evs)
Minnesota (10 Evs)
Iowa (7 Evs)
Nevada (5 Evs)
New Mexico (5 EVs)
New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Maine Cd2 (1 EV)
Michigan (17 EVs)
Pennsylvania (21 EVs)

Bottom Line:

If Bush wins Florida and Ohio, it's all over.

If Bush loses Florida, it's all over (pretty much IMHO)

If Bush wins Florida but loses Ohio it's a 50/50 race.

[rockhound]

This election boils down to utter simplicity actually.

Bush has 2 ways to get re-elected - I will call them, creatively enough, Plan A, and Plan A1.


Plan A

Baseline => 222 EVs
Win Florida @ 27 EVs => 249 EVs
Win Ohio @ 20 Evs => 269 EVs and it's all over

Plan B

Baseline => 222 EVs
Win Florida @ 27 EVs => 249 EVs

plus From the Following States - win 20 EVs

The following state could, with varying degrees of probability, be deemed to be potential Bush victories...

Wisconsin (10 Evs)
Minnesota (10 Evs)
Iowa (7 Evs)
Nevada (5 Evs)
New Mexico (5 EVs)
New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Maine Cd2 (1 EV)
Michigan (17 EVs)
Pennsylvania (21 EVs)

Bottom Line:

If Bush wins Florida and Ohio, it's all over.

If Bush loses Florida, it's all over (pretty much IMHO)

If Bush wins Florida but loses Ohio it's a 50/50 race.

What happened to plan A1?

[The Vorlon]

What happened to plan A1?

Edited it, labeled things wrong

[Silent Hunter]

What if Bush wins Ohio but loses Florida?

[Democratic Hawk]

What if Bush wins Ohio but loses Florida?

Good point. I've actually predicted Florida and New Hampshire for Kerry and Ohio for Bush according to my figures but I've a gut feeling Ohio is going to Kerry rather than Florida.

I've predicted that Kerry holds all Gore states.

Dave

[TheOldLine]

http://slate.msn.com/id/2108957/

Florida3: If Kerry loses in Florida and the rest of the map goes as expected (meaning no upsets in Arkansas, New Jersey, or elsewhere), he'll need to carry Hawaii, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, and two of the "Little Three": Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, to get to 270 electoral votes. With Florida, Kerry coasts to victory. Without Florida, he pretty much needs to run the table to win.

Discuss.

I think that someone here has been posting this ad nauseum for about two weeks.... something about quoting Tim Russert "Florida, Florida, Florida."

;-)

TheOldLine

[TheOldLine]

What happened to plan A1?

Edited it, labeled things wrong

You also forgot Colorado in your A-List.

TheOldLine

[Erc]

Of course, the Russert himself has said:  "Ohio Ohio Ohio."

But as I said in my sig for a while...

Bush better win Florida.

[TheOldLine]

Of course, the Russert himself has said:  "Ohio Ohio Ohio."

But as I said in my sig for a while...

Bush better win Florida.

I don't think Russert said that with quite the same certainty as he did in 2000.

And actually, I think that WI is arguably more decisive that OH this year.   

TheOldLine

[Erc]

Of course, the Russert himself has said:  "Ohio Ohio Ohio."

But as I said in my sig for a while...

Bush better win Florida.

I don't think Russert said that with quite the same certainty as he did in 2000.

And actually, I think that WI is arguably more decisive that OH this year.   

TheOldLine

Yeah...it seemed like Matt Lauer forced him into it.