WI prediction by CD

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Wisconsin congressional district results:

CD 1:
  Bush 51%
  Kerry 47.5%
CD 2:
  Kerry 59%
  Bush 38%
CD 3:
  Kerry 50%
  Bush 48%
CD 4:
  Kerry 67%
  Bush 31%
CD 5:
  Bush 62%
  Kerry 37%
CD 6:
  Bush 56%
  Kerry 42%
CD 7:
  Kerry 49%
  Bush 47.5%
CD 8:
  Bush 59%
  Kerry 40%

TOTAL (assuming equal turnout):
  Bush 49.1%
  Kerry 48.9%

Yee haw, this'll be FUN!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

BTW, this is going entirely on gut feeling, but I'm interested in how close my prediction is to reality.

CD1 could go either way, but with the addition of some big-time GOP munis, it's most likely going Bush.  CD7 and CD3 could theoretically go Bush (Ron Kind (D) is in a tough congressional battle in 3) but I think they'll both go Kerry.

CD2 and CD4 are both more Democrat than before.
CD6 is more GOP than before with the addition of Dodge County.
CD8 is about the same (just added the right-leaning City of Appleton), but it's solid GOP anyway, so it doesn't matter.

[Sam Spade]

The more polls and trends that I'm seeing, I'm getting more of the feeling like Bush will either narrowly win or lose Iowa or Wisconsin and probably win Minnesota.

Call me odd.  Just a gut instinct.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The more polls and trends that I'm seeing, I'm getting more of the feeling like Bush will either narrowly win or lose Iowa or Wisconsin and probably win Minnesota.

Call me odd.  Just a gut instinct.

MN is a mystery to me, and WI would be, except for the fact that I live here and am very familiar with the politics.  Basically, we're dealing with three Democrat, two Republican, and two swing regions:

Democrat
1. Milwaukee City
2. Madison Metro
3. West/Northwest Small Cities

Republican
4. Milwaukee Subrubs
5. Eastern Rural

Swing:
6. NE Wisconsin Metro (where I live!!!!) :-)
7. Western Rural

In the first five, it's all about turnout.  I'm going to be pouring over weather maps for the state.  1 and 4 are affected by the same weather (although Suburban Milwaukee all have nice shiny SUVs to get them to the polls).  But if there's bad weather across the state, it may keep some rural voters from voting.

I think that, more important than the turnout question is the swing question in 6 and 7.  It's no accident that Bush and Kerry have been spending SO much time in Green Bay, Appleton, and Oshkosh.  These almost certainly will decide the state.  I think the last-minute "hunter" ads against Kerry will have an impact in 7.  Not sure how much, though.

It's still a total toss-up.  MAYBE a slight advatage to Bush.  Iowa, from what I understand, is more solidly Bush than Wisconsin is.

[Bogart]

How's Jim Doyle for governor? I saw him on TV yesterday and it reminded how nuts he used to drive me when I still lived there.

Don't forget Racine/Kenosha--pretty Dem friendly areas.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

How's Jim Doyle for governor? I saw him on TV yesterday and it reminded how nuts he used to drive me when I still lived there.

Not too bad.  Competent, intelligent, and a whole lot better than that loser McCallum (I voted Ed Thompson).  Also, if you like gambling, you'll LOVE Doyle.

Don't forget Racine/Kenosha--pretty Dem friendly areas.

Urban R/K is really just a southern extension of Urban Milwaukee (Region "1"), just as Suburban R/K is a southern extension of Suburban Milwaukee (Region "4").

CD1 lost its Rock(?) County portion, and added parts of Southern Jefferson and Waukesha counties.  Net GOP pickup.  And they have a popular young Republican congressman (Paul Ryan), even in the much more liberal 1990 alignment.  That all adds up to a Bush victory in this district.

[Bogart]

Yeah, I liked Paul Ryan. I'm from Lake Geneva, so he was my congressman before I moved. I didn't realize that CD1 lost the Rock County potion.

What are the big issues right now? Who are the GOP leaders? What's the next gubernatorial race look like?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Yeah, I liked Paul Ryan. I'm from Lake Geneva, so he was my congressman before I moved. I didn't realize that CD1 lost the Rock County potion.

What are the big issues right now? Who are the GOP leaders? What's the next gubernatorial race look like?

Marriage is a big issue, Indian gaming, the budget defecit, abortion, and the distribution of funds (referred to as the "Milwaukee Money Grab").  Those are the ones I've been hearing about lately.  I think the state is suffering from "gun exhaustion" after the hunting rights amendment and concealed carry.

Mark Green and Paul Ryan are probably the two up-and-coming Republicans.  I'd expect a run against Doyle from one of them, and a run for US Senate if Herb Kohl retires or Feingold is part of a Presidential ticket in '08.

Probably Paul Ryan will stay put, as CD1 is still a fairly swingy district.  Tomorrow's results will be a good indication of CD1's alignment.  If Bush gets 55+ there, the House seat is probably safely in GOP hands for a long time.