Interesting internals from the final CBS/NYT poll

[njsketch]

John Kerry has a 41% favorable, 47% unfavorable rating. This is his worst rating ever.

President Bush has a 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable rating. That is his best rating since last December.

Undecided voters lean to President Bush 50%-47%, validating the Pew finding and calling the Gallup number into question.

66% of Bush voters strongly favor their candidate.

50% of Kerry voters strongly favor their candidate.

By a 49%-34% margin, voters expect President Bush to win.

President Bush has a 49%-44% job approval rating.

The right track today is 43%. In 1996, it was only 39%.

48% of voters will vote on national security issues; only 33% on domestic issues.

By a 54%-29%, voters believe the Bush Administration has made them safer.

53% of voters do not think that Kerry agrees with their priorities, his worst number ever. 42% believe he has the same.

48% of voters do not think that Bush agrees with their priorities. 49% believe he does share their priorities.

52% of voters think Kerry has leadership qualities, his lowest number ever.

62% of voters think President Bush has leadership qualities.

57% of voters are uneasy with Kerry’s ability to handle a crisis.

60% believe Kerry says what people want to hear. Only 36% say that about President Bush.

53% of Americans say we did the right think in Iraq. Only 42% disagree.

31% say their families are better off than they were four years ago. 40% say about the same.

Most importantly, the percentage of voters call themselves a liberal has declined to 17%, the lowest number since 1997. 35% call themselves conservative

[Nym90]

They are interesting, but past history suggests Gallup is more accurate than CBS/NYT.

[Erc]

Past history also indicates that Gallup is correct.  Any fool and his goat who knows how to read will tell you that Gallup is not.

[Nym90]

Past history also indicates that Gallup is correct.  Any fool and his goat who knows how to read will tell you that Gallup is not.

Huh? It would seem there's a typo here somewhere.

If you look at final polls before election day Gallup historically has been a lot better than CBS/NYT. That doesn't mean they'll be better this year, necessarily.

[njsketch]

Past history also indicates that Gallup is correct. Any fool and his goat who knows how to read will tell you that Gallup is not.

Further inspection of Gallup's weekend (10-29 - 10/31) polling indicates that Bush has only a 4 point lead among men (50-46) while Kerry maintains a 6 point lead among women (50-44).  That to me is quite odd, as Bush in almost every poll taken has almost a ten point gap men voters preference.

Furthermore, Gallup indicates that Bush holds not a single lead in any age-range demographic.  At best he is tied in the 50-64 age range (48-48).  This to me also seems quite odd.

Kerry leads by 17 points in the Eastern geographical region, yet his state poll indicates that Bush is up 4 in Pennsylvania.  Furthermore, in Bush's strongest geographical region, he only has a net +6 gain (51-45).  This to me also seems odd.  To compare to Gallup's last poll, Kerry was +11 in the East, Bush was +15 in the South.

Along Gallup's Partisanship line, Bush carries R's 93-6, Kerry carries D's 91-7, and I's break 48-40 Kerry.  In Gallup's last survey, they had basically the same results, except I's broke 49-44 for Kerry.  I'm left wondering, why is there only an 88% sum for Independents this time around, when R's = 99% and D's 98%.

[Nym90]

Past history also indicates that Gallup is correct. Any fool and his goat who knows how to read will tell you that Gallup is not.

Further inspection of Gallup's weekend (10-29 - 10/31) polling indicates that Bush has only a 4 point lead among men (50-46) while Kerry maintains a 6 point lead among women (50-44).  That to me is quite odd, as Bush in almost every poll taken has almost a ten point gap men voters preference.

Furthermore, Gallup indicates that Bush holds not a single lead in any age-range demographic.  At best he is tied in the 50-64 age range (48-48).  This to me also seems quite odd.

Kerry leads by 17 points in the Eastern geographical region, yet his state poll indicates that Bush is up 4 in Pennsylvania.  Furthermore, in Bush's strongest geographical region, he only has a net +6 gain (51-45).  This to me also seems odd.  To compare to Gallup's last poll, Kerry was +11 in the East, Bush was +15 in the South.

Along Gallup's Partisanship line, Bush carries R's 93-6, Kerry carries D's 91-7, and I's break 48-40 Kerry.  In Gallup's last survey, they had basically the same results, except I's broke 49-44 for Kerry.  I'm left wondering, why is there only an 88% sum for Independents this time around, when R's = 99% and D's 98%.

Each of those numbers, of course, has a smaller sample size, and thus a larger MOE than the internals I posted, which were coming from the entire sample, not just a subset. So that at least partially explains any weirdness.

And I agree that Gallup's state polls are wacky.

[njsketch]

Past history also indicates that Gallup is correct. Any fool and his goat who knows how to read will tell you that Gallup is not.

Further inspection of Gallup's weekend (10-29 - 10/31) polling indicates that Bush has only a 4 point lead among men (50-46) while Kerry maintains a 6 point lead among women (50-44).  That to me is quite odd, as Bush in almost every poll taken has almost a ten point gap men voters preference.

Furthermore, Gallup indicates that Bush holds not a single lead in any age-range demographic.  At best he is tied in the 50-64 age range (48-48).  This to me also seems quite odd.

Kerry leads by 17 points in the Eastern geographical region, yet his state poll indicates that Bush is up 4 in Pennsylvania.  Furthermore, in Bush's strongest geographical region, he only has a net +6 gain (51-45).  This to me also seems odd.  To compare to Gallup's last poll, Kerry was +11 in the East, Bush was +15 in the South.

Along Gallup's Partisanship line, Bush carries R's 93-6, Kerry carries D's 91-7, and I's break 48-40 Kerry.  In Gallup's last survey, they had basically the same results, except I's broke 49-44 for Kerry.  I'm left wondering, why is there only an 88% sum for Independents this time around, when R's = 99% and D's 98%.

Each of those numbers, of course, has a smaller sample size, and thus a larger MOE than the internals I posted, which were coming from the entire sample, not just a subset. So that at least partially explains any weirdness.

And I agree that Gallup's state polls are wacky.

We agree on something, lol.  The only point I am trying to make is that these kooky internals have affected the top line results.

For Bush to only be pulling +6 in the South and Kerry + 17 in the East may be one reason why the horserace numbers are so close.  Furthermore, the narrowing of the gender gap (+4 men for Bush, + 6 Kerry for women) seems really odd.

I'm not a polling expert, but when you throw in your aforementioned findings re: who would be better to handle Iraq, terrorism showing a trend for Kerry and a slight uptick on domestic issues for Bush, this whole poll seems out of line with previous reports.

[Nym90]

It's obviously all idle speculation at this point. The reason I trust Gallup is because their final preelection poll has been very accurate in the past, and their methodology is designed to get better as the election gets closer, as The Vorlon has pointed out before.

Only time will tell whether this continues to be true.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wait, you Republicans trust something from CBS? I thought you guys said CBS was completely untrustworthy.

[ATFFL]

Wait, you Republicans trust something from CBS? I thought you guys said CBS was completely untrustworthy.

CBS tries very hard to get the last poll right because it is the one that will define their credibility for the next 4 years.

Other than that their polling is garbage.  They are generally not very good at polling at all, but they did do very well in their last poll 4 years ago.

The story they try to spin around the poll may be garbage, but they do try to get the last poll right.  In the end, it is the only poll that matters to each firm.