From CNN - huge growth in voter reg in some states.

[freedomburns]

Voter registration has grown by huge amounts in some states according to CNN.

NV  +22%

FL  +17%

NM  +12%

I will take part of the credit for NV, having driven four hours just to participate in a voter registration drive.

My analysis:  NV for Kerry, and Bush is doomed.  NV may be the margin of victory.

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[Alcon]

I don't want to sound cynical, but would these results be heavily affected by the growth of states like Nevada? If so, I'd like to see the growth-adjusted rates. This kind of math is not my forté, so you'll have to forgive me if this sounds stupid.

[J. J.]

All three of those are growth states.

[Alcon]

All three of those are growth states.

I know, which is exactly my point. With rapid growth in these states, I assume these figures aren't as amazing as they would initially seem to be. That is, I doubt the percent of registered voters has increased that much.

[patrick1]

All three of those are growth states.

I know, which is exactly my point. With rapid growth in these states, I assume these figures aren't as amazing as they would initially seem to be. That is, I doubt the percent of registered voters has increased that much.

Approximate percentage growth in population since 2000 election

Nevada-16%
Florida- 9%
New Mexico 4%

Freedomburns seems to think all of these new registrants will vote for Kerry and that all of those registered will actually vote.  Republicans have registered many new voters of their own.  We will see in a few days.

[A18]

In Florida, the Republicans now have a bigger registration advantage over the Democrats than they did in 2000.

[Citizen James]

In Florida, the Republicans now have a bigger registration advantage over the Democrats than they did in 2000.

But not as big of one as they had in 2002, Dems have made up a good deal of ground since then.

[Erc]

In 2000, it was tied.

In 2002, it was a Republican landslide.

If the Democrats are still not back to 2000 positions, Bush still wins.

[DFLofMN]

Were these original figures comparing numbers from 2000, 2002 or within the last year?

Voter registration has grown by huge amounts in some states according to CNN.

NV +22%

FL +17%

NM +12%

I will take part of the credit for NV, having driven four hours just to participate in a voter registration drive.

My analysis: NV for Kerry, and Bush is doomed. NV may be the margin of victory.

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[Prospero]

In 2000, it was tied.

In 2002, it was a Republican landslide.

If the Democrats are still not back to 2000 positions, Bush still wins.

It's hard to compare midterm elections to presidential elections.  I would guess that primarily die-hard political junkies vote in midterms.  I would think presidential elections would have to have higher turnout.

[J. J.]

In 2000, it was tied.

In 2002, it was a Republican landslide.

If the Democrats are still not back to 2000 positions, Bush still wins.

It's hard to compare midterm elections to presidential elections.  I would guess that primarily die-hard political junkies vote in midterms.  I would think presidential elections would have to have higher turnout.

Depends, the highest voter turnout in Phila was in the 1987 general election, the mayoral race.  The FL governor's race was one of the hottest races in the US that year.  You'll probably get more in a presidential election, but not that much more.

[AuH2O]

Registering doesn't equal voting.

[Prospero]

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Depends, the highest voter turnout in Phila was in the 1987 general election, the mayoral race.  The FL governor's race was one of the hottest races in the US that year.  You'll probably get more in a presidential election, but not that much more.

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Who won the 1987 Philly race?  Was Goode running for reelection?
Here's a site I just found about turnout.  From Information Please.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html