Swedish election 2010

[Gustaf]

Fakta: Opinionsmätningen
Parti Juni Juli Differens
Centerpartiet 5,0 5,3 0,2
Folkpartiet 5,6 5,9 0,3
Moderaterna 31,8 30,4 –1,4
Kristdemokraterna 4,5 5,1 0,6
Socialdemokraterna 30,8 30,2 –0,6
Vänsterpartiet 5,7 5,5 –0,2
Miljöpartiet 9,3 9,3 0,0
Sverigedemokraterna 5,7 5,0 –0,7
Övriga 1,6 3,4 1,8

Blue bloc: 46.6%
Red-Green bloc: 45%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Övriga 1,6 3,4 1,8

That seems like an awfully big increase for Övriga/Others.

[Tender Branson]

What´s up with Sifo and Synovate ? No poll from them for a long time now.

[Gustaf]

What´s up with Sifo and Synovate ? No poll from them for a long time now.

Credible pollsters don't poll in July because no Swedes are at home during July. Everyone is sitting in their red cottages.

[Gustaf]

http://www.svd.se/nyheter/inrikes/prideparaden-i-bilder_5067043.svd#image_8

I think this is actually Sweden's minister for immigration and gender equality dressed up as Catwoman for the Stockholm Pride festival.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, summer polling is worthless in most 'western' countries.

[Gustaf]

New poll!

This one is Aftonbladet/United Minds which means that it is sort of untested. Having worked a little bit for United Minds I sort of like them though.

M: 29,3%
FP: 6,9%
C: 4,2%
KD: 5,5%

MP: 9,0%
S: 30,2%
V: 5,8%

SD: 6,5%
Others: 2,5%

Blue bloc: 45,9%
Red-Green bloc: 45%

This more or less confirms all the other polls we've seen. Government is ahead, S is doing badly, SD is going to wreak parliamentary havoc by getting in and preventing a majority for either side.

[Tender Branson]

Gustaf (or anyone else), what do you see as most likely coalition if the Sweden Democrats get in ?

Minority government by either side ?

Minority government by the Center-Right coalition, backed by the SD (just like in Holland) ?

(Is that even possible, what do the leaders of the Center-Right coalition say to that ?)

Or a grand coalition between the Social Democrats and the Moderates ? What is the leader´s position on this ?

If it´s like in Austria, politicians from the major parties are not talking much about possible coalitions before the elections, but maybe the Swedish leaders have more to say, just like in Germany.

Also: What are the main election topics in Sweden right now and what are the positions of the parties ?

Thx.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Gustaf (or anyone else), what do you see as most likely coalition if the Sweden Democrats get in ?

The most likly alternativ (if you ask me, no one knows for sure) would be a minority centre-right goverment with official support from the Greens on budgets and some other core issues, but that would rely on passive support from the Sweden Democrats on some issues.

In the longer run, if the Sweden Democrats don't fall out of the parliament again in the next election, I think we could see a similar political development as in Denmark with the DPP, unfortunatley.

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According to Sahlin there are two parties she would never work with under any circumstances, Sweden Democrats, and the Moderates. And even if she would change her mind, Reinfeldt wouldn't ever agree to becoming a junior minister in a Sahlin lead Goverment.

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1 The Economy
2 The Economy
3 Immigration
4 The Economy
5 Mona Sahlin's incabability as S leader

The Red-Greens have been trying to stear the debate towards welfere issues, where they are generally very strong, but have mostly failed. Even after Sahlin, Ohly, Wetterstarnd, and Eriksson all four gave speeches at Almedalen where the core theme was welfere, and came with their joint statement that no matter how much the goverment promised to spend on welfere they'd spend 12 billions more, it hasn't been a intensly discussed and debated subject at all, not on TV, not in News Papers, and certainly not at home.

The Economy is the hot topic of the day. It's not a very intresting debate. Red-Greens: "Since you took over we've had the worst recession in modern times." Alliance: "Well, duh, it's been recession everywhere, fact is Sweden is one of the countries in the world that's been able to handle it best, thanks to our leadership. "

Immigration, in light of SD's successes has been debated quite a lot as well.

And Mona Sahlin herself has been given a lot of time in media. Her leadership as well as the Social Democrats record low numbers have been subject to a lot of debating and discussion as well.     



 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to Sahlin there are two parties she would never work with under any circumstances, Sweden Democrats, and the Moderates. And even if she would change her mind, Reinfeldt wouldn't ever agree to becoming a junior minister in a Sahlin lead Goverment.

That often translates as 'make way for the compromise leader!', but who knows.

[Gustaf]

Reinfeldt certainly is not going to be removed unless something catastrophic happens. He has been the most successful M-leader ever.

Sahlin on the other hand is likely to be gone after the election unless the Red-Greens can form a coalition. Will comment more on Tender's questions later.

[DL]

New poll!

This one is Aftonbladet/United Minds which means that it is sort of untested.

M: 29,3%
FP: 6,9%
C: 4,2%
KD: 5,5%

MP: 9,0%
S: 30,2%
V: 5,8%

SD: 6,5%
Others: 2,5%

Blue bloc: 45,9%
Red-Green bloc: 45%

Another thing to consider is that this poll has the Centre Party dangerously close to the 4% they need to have any representation at all and other polls have had the Christian Democrats flirting with the "extinction line". Its not inconceivable that one of the bourgeois parties drops out of the Riksdag and the SD get in - then the fur would really start to fly and you might have a Red/Green government by default.

For so many years Sweden seemed immune to the cancerous xenophobia you see in the Denmark (DPP), Norway (Progress party) and the Netherlands (PVV) - I wonder why its only now that the extreme right is suddenly rearing its head in Sweden?

[Gustaf]

New poll!

This one is Aftonbladet/United Minds which means that it is sort of untested.

M: 29,3%
FP: 6,9%
C: 4,2%
KD: 5,5%

MP: 9,0%
S: 30,2%
V: 5,8%

SD: 6,5%
Others: 2,5%

Blue bloc: 45,9%
Red-Green bloc: 45%

Another thing to consider is that this poll has the Centre Party dangerously close to the 4% they need to have any representation at all and other polls have had the Christian Democrats flirting with the "extinction line". Its not inconceivable that one of the bourgeois parties drops out of the Riksdag and the SD get in - then the fur would really start to fly and you might have a Red/Green government by default.

For so many years Sweden seemed immune to the cancerous xenophobia you see in the Denmark (DPP), Norway (Progress party) and the Netherlands (PVV) - I wonder why its only now that the extreme right is suddenly rearing its head in Sweden?

Neither C nor KD are likely to get knocked out. They usually gain support as the campaign gets underway and M voters will switch to save them if they appear to be in danger when we get near the election day.

The rise of the SD isn't really that sudden. It's been going on for years. Sweden is less nationalistic and more politically correct in its discourse. Basically, it's a more leftwinged country. Denmark has always been more continental culturally speaking and Norway is a younger nation with the accompanying nationalist that goes with that.

[Gustaf]

Gustaf (or anyone else), what do you see as most likely coalition if the Sweden Democrats get in ?

Minority government by either side ?

Minority government by the Center-Right coalition, backed by the SD (just like in Holland) ?

(Is that even possible, what do the leaders of the Center-Right coalition say to that ?)

Or a grand coalition between the Social Democrats and the Moderates ? What is the leader´s position on this ?

If it´s like in Austria, politicians from the major parties are not talking much about possible coalitions before the elections, but maybe the Swedish leaders have more to say, just like in Germany.

Also: What are the main election topics in Sweden right now and what are the positions of the parties ?

Thx.

Lots of questions there!

First off, Swedish politicians used to be very secretive about possible coalitions before elections. This time, all the current parties in parliament are locked into one of the two alliances - Alliance for Sweden on the right side and the redgreen bloc on the other. They're refusing to speculate on what will happen if SD gets in, mostly.

No one wants to cooperate with SD and it's probably political suicide for most if not all parties. We're not in a Danish or Dutch situation just yet. There is a possibility of the centre-right ruling with passive support from SD (they did that 1991-1994 with New Democracy, a previous xenophobic party, playing the role of SD) but I doubt it. Even that would be controversial and they wouldn't trust SD.

SD really, really, really (did I say really?) loathe, detest and hate Mona Sahlin, the leader of S, so there can never be any kind of even passive support on that side.

So there are really 3 possibilities -

1. A centrist party switching sides
2. A grand coalition
3. Passive support from the losing bloc

There was some talk about 3 earlier in the campaign. The idea was that the bloc which got fewer votes would gracefully admit defeat and give passive support for the winning side to prevent SD from gaining influence. It seems to have been dropped though and I doubt it would work.

2 has also been discussed in the media, but not at all entertained by politicians. I doubt it would become reality, feelings between M and S are very hostile and there is no tradition of grand coalitions in Sweden. All the other parties would feel betrayed as well.

1 is the most realistic one and leading politicians of the smaller parties have mentioned it, but always in terms of a party from the other side joining them, never the other way around. It would have to be MP from the redgreen side and probably C or FP from the blue side. The idea seems to be that whoever gets the most votes would lure over a party from the other side.

In my opinion, the best bet here, regardless of who gets the most votes, is MP switching. They have never been a party with bloc loyalty and has cooperated with the right quite a bit on the local level and on certain issues nationally as well. They could also cast themselves as saving the country from SD which is something they could hope to sell to their voters.

Neither C nor FP could ever work with V, imo. They would probably demand V getting kicked out to be passive support and that would mean a minority government anyway. Also, everyone knows that a centre-right party switching to the left always gets punished by the voters.

[Gustaf]

Issues:

It's mostly about the economy. The dividing line is that the centre-right wants to make it more rewarding to work, so they have cut taxes on wages earned by working (disproportionately so as to benefit those with lower incomes) while cutting sick leave and unemploymeny benefits.

The left now wants to partially roll back this by raising taxes on the two thirds with highest incomes from work while cutting taxes for everyone who doesn't work (retired, unemployed and people on sick leave). [editorial]Cutting taxes for retired CEOs and unemployed lawyers while raising them on hard working nurses and construction workers, that's justice, equality and redistribution in the left's world![/editorial]

That's the main dividing line when it comes to economic policy. M has pledged not to cut taxes further but instead spend what excess revenue there is on welfare services, like education and hospital care.

The big debate is not really about issue positions but on which issues to debate. The right wants it to be about managing the economy, because the government is very well trusted, especially the PM and the Finance Minister, while people has very low confidence in the leftist politicians on that issue. Ideologically, however, people wants to be viewed as good in Sweden. That's why we're the only country to give 1% of GDP in foreign aid, as recommended by the UN*, don't have a xenophobic party, "unswedish" is a positive adjective, you say thank you at least 3 times when paying for your groceries, stand in line when being told to, have rainbow flags on the buses when the pride festival is on and so on.

So people prefer to feel leftwinged if welfare issues are discussed.



*That is a blatant lie, I think there are 3 or 4 other countries who do it too, Japan and Holland and Norway, etc

[Gustaf]

New poll by Sweden's best pollster, SIFO:
http://www.svd.se/nyheter/politik/valet2010/opinionsundersokning-2-5-augusti-2010_5103421.svd?service=graphic

M: 32.6%
S: 30.6%
MP: 10.0%
FP: 6.3%
KD: 5.7%
V: 5.4%
C: 4.7%
SD: 4.1%
Others: 0.7%

Blue bloc: 49.3%
Red-Green: 46.0%
SD: 4.1%

Government definitely ahead but margin isn't very big, most crucially it isn't big enough to yield a majority if SD gets in. Chaos reigns, as von Trier would have said.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Government definitely ahead but margin isn't very big, most crucially it isn't big enough to yield a majority if SD gets in. Chaos reigns, as von Trier would have said.

And it probably will for the next 4 years. I have a real hard time seeing either side gaining so much they'll win 50%+ at this point unless something really unexpected or drastic happens, and be able to form a goverment if Sweden Democrats get in. I've been saying for a long time now (even when red-greens had a relativly big lead) that an unclear majority with Sd in the middle would be the likly election result.

What it's about now if you ask me is the Alliance gaining a plurality over Sahlin and friends and thus have an upper hand when trying to get the Greens to switch side. That's what happened here in Skåne after Sd tieing the county council preventing an outright Alliance majority.
 

[DL]

SD really, really, really (did I say really?) loathe, detest and hate Mona Sahlin, the leader of S, so there can never be any kind of even passive support on that side.

She must be an extraordinarily wonderful person if the neo-fascists in the SD hate her so much. I think anyone who is hated so much by a party of skinheads, neo-nazis and racists should wear their hatred as a badge of honour!

[Gustaf]

SD really, really, really (did I say really?) loathe, detest and hate Mona Sahlin, the leader of S, so there can never be any kind of even passive support on that side.

She must be an extraordinarily wonderful person if the neo-fascists in the SD hate her so much. I think anyone who is hated so much by a party of skinheads, neo-nazis and racists should wear their hatred as a badge of honour!

Oh, I'm sure she does. I hardly thinks she is a wonderful person though, to be honest.

She has profiled herself as very pro-immigration historically, which is the main reason why they hate her.

On that topic, FP is reaching for racist voters so much that their arms are beginning to hurt.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

On that topic, FP is reaching for racist voters so much that their arms are beginning to hurt.

Don't they every election...

It's all sharades of course so I don't think there's need to worry. I still haven't seen any language tests, and Sabuni's been in charge of immigration policy for four years now.

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Yeah I'm sure she's lovly. Being disliked by some idiots certainly makes up for stealing 53 000 kr from the Swedish taxpayers to pay for her parking tickets, rental cars, furniture, and candy. Nazis hate Stalin as well right, and we know what a saint he was. 

[Хahar 🤔]

I don't see why it's a huge problem. She even paid the money back.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I don't see why it's a huge problem. She even paid the money back.

She paid the money back cause she'd have been thrown into prison if she hadn't. She didn't do it out of good will. And it's a problem for the same reason the expense scandal was a problem in Britain. We entrust a great deal of power to these people, the power over our laws and the power over billions of taxmoney. When these people are not able to take care of their own personal economies, and don't follow the laws they expect us mortals to follow there is obviously a problem. 

And Sahlin's problems doesn't even end with the Toblerone scandal. She has repeatedly been caught cheating with her taxes, TV-lisence and car insurance, all while preeching that taxes are fun and good. As late as of 2006 she had a scandal when she was caught lying about having had the mandatory Vehicle Safty Inspection of her car.

 I know you're used to real scumbag politicians in California, but in Sweden we expect a certain standard, even from Social Democratic politicians    

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And it's a problem for the same reason the expense scandal was a problem in Britain.

Hysteria?

[minionofmidas]

And it's a problem for the same reason the expense scandal was a problem in Britain.

Hysteria?

Yes. That does seem to be what he meant. Oh, and also lack of oversight at normal times, and the fact that for this very reason it just confirmed what everybody always assumed about these people (mostly of the other party) but couldn't prove.

[Gustaf]

And it's a problem for the same reason the expense scandal was a problem in Britain.

Hysteria?

Yes. That does seem to be what he meant. Oh, and also lack of oversight at normal times, and the fact that for this very reason it just confirmed what everybody always assumed about these people (mostly of the other party) but couldn't prove.

The thing with the Sahlin stuff is really two notable aspects:

1. She did it and was forced to resign. Then she came back and did it again.
2. She infamously said once that it is cool to pay taxes. People find that hypocritical.