1964: Johnson vs Nixon

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Lyndon Johnson/Hubert Humphrey

vs

Richard Nixon/Barry Goldwater

[Bo]

LBJ wins 379-159.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

305 - 186 - 47

[Bo]

305 - 186 - 47

I'm not sure the South would have voted for unpledged electors instead of for Nixon.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

I'm not sure Nixon would've chosen Goldwater. It wouldn't have been a geographically diverse ticket and Goldwater was perceived as an extremist. I could see Nixon choosing William Scranton, Nelson Rockefeller, or possibly even Margaret Chase Smith if he's daring (in my mind, the VEEP choice depends on whether Nixon runs as a moderate or a conservative).

And as for unpledged electors, it would really depend on whether Nixon chooses to use the Southern Strategy or not.

[President Mitt]

It would be a fairly decent sized LBJ landslide. Richard Nixon was still damaged goods after losing in 1962. Nixon would have been a better campaigner, but I doubt the South would have supported him. Some Southern third party probably grabs the deep South. He would have done better than Goldwater, but not by much.

Nixon wouldn't have pulled to the right like he did in 1968, because there was no backlash against Liberalism in 1964, rather, the opposite. So there's no chance he picks Goldwater, he probably chooses some bland Liberal Republican in the Northeast that really gives him no real advantage.

[yougo1000]

[Bo]

Why would Nixon win IL, which he lost in 1960?

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Well, under this scenario there'd still be a huge primary battle, though Nixon would likely win the California primary, and choose Goldwater to assuage disgruntled conservatives.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

....how did you come up with that?

[Derek]

http://

[Derek]

....how did you come up with that?

yes really

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

[Derek]

That boom ^^ is what Johnson would've shown if Nixon ran as well.

[Bo]

That boom ^^ is what Johnson would've shown if Nixon ran as well.

lol. LBJ had 70% approval ratings in late 1964. He would ahve easily crushed Nixon.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

That boom ^^ is what Johnson would've shown if Nixon ran as well.

No, that boom was my head exploding after seeing Yougo's map.

[Derek]

lol yea it looked like every other state being red and blue in a pattern. I may have been a little generous for Nixon but he was a hell of a campaigner.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Anywhoo.. Here's how I see it.

Being a political chameleon, Nixon could likely cajole the South onto his side. At the eleventh hour, California is called for Nixon, though it does not bring him to victory.

[Derek]

The north may not have been as democratic then if Goldwater wasn't the nominee. Nixon wasn't a segregation so using a little girl to advance a political and socialist agenda wouldn't have been an option for Kennedy's predecessor.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

The north may not have been as democratic then if Goldwater wasn't the nominee. Nixon wasn't a segregation so using a little girl to advance a political and socialist agenda wouldn't have been an option for Kennedy's predecessor.

No way would Nixon win Massachusetts/Rhode Island, if thats what you're referring to.

Johnson was very unlikely to get beat in 1964.

[Bo]

Anywhoo.. Here's how I see it.

Being a political chameleon, Nixon could likely cajole the South onto his side. At the eleventh hour, California is called for Nixon, though it does not bring him to victory.

I don't see Nixon winning NJ, CT, CA, or NV. JFK won all those states except CA in 1960, and JFK lost CA by about 0.5%. I could see LBJ winning all those states as the incumbent with a good economy and due to the sympathy vote following JFK's assasination.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Anywhoo.. Here's how I see it.

Being a political chameleon, Nixon could likely cajole the South onto his side. At the eleventh hour, California is called for Nixon, though it does not bring him to victory.

I don't see Nixon winning NJ, CT, CA, or NV. JFK won all those states except CA in 1960, and JFK lost CA by about 0.5%. I could see LBJ winning all those states as the incumbent with a good economy and due to the sympathy vote following JFK's assasination.

Yes, but JFK was a much more dynamic candidate, and CT was 'his back yard' so to speak. The traditionally Republican state of Nevada always was a mystery to me.

[Bo]

Anywhoo.. Here's how I see it.

Being a political chameleon, Nixon could likely cajole the South onto his side. At the eleventh hour, California is called for Nixon, though it does not bring him to victory.

I don't see Nixon winning NJ, CT, CA, or NV. JFK won all those states except CA in 1960, and JFK lost CA by about 0.5%. I could see LBJ winning all those states as the incumbent with a good economy and due to the sympathy vote following JFK's assasination.

Yes, but JFK was a much more dynamic candidate, and CT was 'his back yard' so to speak. The traditionally Republican state of Nevada always was a mystery to me.

It's true that JFK was more charismatic, but LBJ is the incumebtn in this scenario when things are going well in the country. That gives him a huge boost. In addition, the sympathy vote would have also given him a huge boost. Thus, I could see LBJ doing a little better than JFK in all these states, except maybe CT, where he would have done about the same.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Anywhoo.. Here's how I see it.

Being a political chameleon, Nixon could likely cajole the South onto his side. At the eleventh hour, California is called for Nixon, though it does not bring him to victory.

I don't see Nixon winning NJ, CT, CA, or NV. JFK won all those states except CA in 1960, and JFK lost CA by about 0.5%. I could see LBJ winning all those states as the incumbent with a good economy and due to the sympathy vote following JFK's assasination.

Yes, but JFK was a much more dynamic candidate, and CT was 'his back yard' so to speak. The traditionally Republican state of Nevada always was a mystery to me.

It's true that JFK was more charismatic, but LBJ is the incumebtn in this scenario when things are going well in the country. That gives him a huge boost. In addition, the sympathy vote would have also given him a huge boost. Thus, I could see LBJ doing a little better than JFK in all these states, except maybe CT, where he would have done about the same.

I can envision Johnson winning NV in this scenario, but I went under the assumption that Nixon did not repeat his ill-fated "visit every 50 states" strategy, which gives him more time to concentrate on EV-rich states like California, New Jersey, and so forth. Nixon also, under these assumptions, does not perform poorly in debates, get sick, etc.

[Bo]

Anywhoo.. Here's how I see it.

Being a political chameleon, Nixon could likely cajole the South onto his side. At the eleventh hour, California is called for Nixon, though it does not bring him to victory.

I don't see Nixon winning NJ, CT, CA, or NV. JFK won all those states except CA in 1960, and JFK lost CA by about 0.5%. I could see LBJ winning all those states as the incumbent with a good economy and due to the sympathy vote following JFK's assasination.

Yes, but JFK was a much more dynamic candidate, and CT was 'his back yard' so to speak. The traditionally Republican state of Nevada always was a mystery to me.

It's true that JFK was more charismatic, but LBJ is the incumebtn in this scenario when things are going well in the country. That gives him a huge boost. In addition, the sympathy vote would have also given him a huge boost. Thus, I could see LBJ doing a little better than JFK in all these states, except maybe CT, where he would have done about the same.

I can envision Johnson winning NV in this scenario, but I went under the assumption that Nixon did not repeat his ill-fated "visit every 50 states" strategy, which gives him more time to concentrate on EV-rich states like California, New Jersey, and so forth. Nixon also, under these assumptions, does not perform poorly in debates, get sick, etc.

People would ahve still remmebered Nixon's embarrassments from 1960, even if he would ahve ran a better campaign this time around. Also, NV wasn't that Republican--it voted for Bryan three times, voted for Wilson in 1916, voted for FDR all four times, and voted for Truman. BTW, could you please respond to my 1988 scenario?