10/31 Zogby, WP, Fox/OD Tied, BOT Bush+1, TIPP Bush+5, Movement??

[Pollwatch99]

Let's net out today for tracking polls.  Bush gains in Zogby, TIPP and stays the same in Rasmussen.  Bush loses in OD and WP.   Net gain for Bush+2

Kerry gains the same in Zogby, OD.  Stays same in Rasmussen and WP.  Kerry loses in TIPP.  Net gain for Kerry+1. 

I see no movement but maybe I see what I want to see 

Zogby Bush 48 Kerry 48 Nader 1 (Bush+2, Kerry+1; net to Bush+1)
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6667679

WP     Bush 48, Kerry 48 (Bush -1)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/2004tracking/track103104.html
       
Fox/OD  Bush 46 Kerry 46 Nader 1 ( Bush -1, Kerry+1.  Net Bush-2).
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/103104_poll.pdf
 
Rasmussen Bush 49 Kerry 48 (no change)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

TIPP   Bush 48 Kerry 43 (Bush+2, Kerry-1  Net Bush+3)
http://www.tipponline.com/     

[André]

Hi, :-)

Washington Post Daily Tracking Poll:

Bush 48, Kerry 48 (Bush -1)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

[Pollwatch99]

Hi, :-)

Washington Post Daily Tracking Poll:

Bush 48, Kerry 48 (Bush -1)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

thanks updated title and topline

[Reds4]

Fox Opinion Dynamics Tracking Poll Bush 46% Kerry 46%

[Pollwatch99]

Fox Opinion Dynamics Tracking Poll Bush 46% Kerry 46%

go it thanks.  updated Topline

[lidaker]

This is starting to look like a Kerry trend.

[Pollwatch99]

This is starting to look like a Kerry trend.

Let's see what the last daily tracking says( Rasmussen).  Bush is +2, countered by Bush -2.  Net no change.  Kerry is unchanged and 2 polls up +1, Net +2 in 3 polls. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The polls are going gaga faster than a certain Senator from Kentucky

[Hegemon]

Two other polls are showing a tie/1 point Kerry lead this morning:  Democracy Corps and ARG.

[Giant Saguaro]

A Saturday sample comes on the Rasmussen, so it'll porbably agree with the rest - a tie or Kerry +1 or so. I wonder what Tipp will show - it was a Bush +2 yesterday, but the trackers have moved very hard to show ties.

[Pollwatch99]

Two other polls are showing a tie/1 point Kerry lead this morning:  Democracy Corps and ARG.

Democracy Corps is a firm owned by James Carville.  Most tend to ignore this and Strategic Vision which is a republican firm

[Reds4]

Note: The ABC News tracking poll that gets the same data as WaPo, just different on the methodology slightly, still shows Bush up 49-48, same as yesterday.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=213161&page=1

[Pollwatch99]

This is starting to look like a Kerry trend.

Let's see what the last daily tracking says( Rasmussen).  Bush is +2, countered by Bush -2.  Net no change.  Kerry is unchanged and 2 polls up +1, Net +2 in 3 polls. 

Actually I forgot the TIPP tracking poll also.  Too many tracking polls.

[Silent Hunter]

It's the weekend. Kerry polls well on weekends.

[ATFFL]

Zogby and Rasmussen hard weight to the same results as 2000.  So if the electorate has shifted at all in 4 years they will miss it.

Democracy Corp decided to poll on the bin laden tape.  The question they asked is:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A less loaded way to ask the question would be: Has your opinion on George Bush's handling of the war on terror been the recent release of a video tape by Osama bin Laden?  (If they say it has) Do  you now feel better or worse about George Bush's handling of the war on terror?

And Bush down one in ARG is good news for him.

Still, the polls are tightening.  The question is if it is real movement or another weekend of blipping like last week.

[agcatter]

What are the internals of the Fox tracking poll today.  Someone posted on another site that it had Bush up slightly with women and trailing with men in the Sat sample.

That can't be right can it??

[Pollwatch99]

What are the internals of the Fox tracking poll today.  Someone posted on another site that it had Bush up slightly with women and trailing with men in the Sat sample.

That can't be right can it??

I believe this reflects their reporting.  Basically even with both groups.  Confirmed on the Sunday national show; Kerry lead among men.  Most of the panelists agree, a little strange ( sample was 400)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's the weekend. Kerry polls well on weekends.

As I posted in another thread, this is not supported by the data.  Here are the average Bush leads in the tracking polls by day of the week over the last thirty days (updated since I posted yesterday):

Saturday      2.26
Sunday            2.60
Monday           2.00
Tuesday           1.93
Wednesday    1.22
Thursday      2.23
Friday              2.13

Bush does best on Sunday and worst on Wednesday, suggesting he polls well on the weekends and badly from Sunday-Tuesday.

[Silent Hunter]

If so:
a) We have a trend to Kerry
b) There are more Reps at weekends.

Wednesday's a blip. Ignore it and you have Bush at an average of just over 2.

[Pollwatch99]

It's the weekend. Kerry polls well on weekends.

As I posted in another thread, this is not supported by the data.  Here are the average Bush leads in the tracking polls by day of the week over the last thirty days (updated since I posted yesterday):

Saturday      2.26
Sunday            2.60
Monday           2.00
Tuesday           1.93
Wednesday    1.22
Thursday      2.23
Friday              2.13

Bush does best on Sunday and worst on Wednesday, suggesting he polls well on the weekends and badly from Sunday-Tuesday.

The difference between 1.2 and 2.6 is really not statistically significant.  Bottom line in this election Bush has been about a 2% lead since the debates within MOE.  Avg about 2.2 for all the days.  Rest is noise. Day of the week is not significant  

[alcaeus]

      Averaging all the polls doesn't work.   The only way to do it is to take a poll or two as one's own and go with it.

      They're using competing methods.  The pollsters who are way off when the vote is counted get egg on their face and a worsening reputation.   The pollsters are in for profit.  They want to be right, because the ones who are will sell more of their services.

     The high number of pollsters in this election is an example of a new hot product that is getting tested in the marketplace.   The big test is the Presidential Election.  A few elections from now most of these pollsters will be out of the business of Presidential Elections.

      So the only sensible approach to the polls is to choose one as your product, based on the credibility you give its methods.

[Pollwatch99]

      Averaging all the polls doesn't work.   The only way to do it is to take a poll or two as one's own and go with it.

If you averaged the polls (http://www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm) from 2000, you get Bush+1.6% for the final poll average. You have last minute DUI giving momentum to Gore.   I don't think it is invalid but it is only one way to look at the race.  With different pollsters using different techniques, you want to look at how their polls contrast with one another also.  Plus, of course the quality of polls coupled with the participants of polls(Dems, Reps, and Independants)

[AuH2O]

It's the weekend. Kerry polls well on weekends.

As I posted in another thread, this is not supported by the data.  Here are the average Bush leads in the tracking polls by day of the week over the last thirty days (updated since I posted yesterday):

Saturday      2.26
Sunday            2.60
Monday           2.00
Tuesday           1.93
Wednesday    1.22
Thursday      2.23
Friday              2.13

Bush does best on Sunday and worst on Wednesday, suggesting he polls well on the weekends and badly from Sunday-Tuesday.

Maybe I'm making a mistake, but it looks to me like your data actually sort of supports the notion Bush does poorly on weekends.

His lead on a Saturday is made up of the previous 3 days, correct? So that would be 3 weekdays. It looks like Sunday might drag him down through the first few weekdays.

[Pollwatch99]

up[dated for Rasmussen

[Sam Spade]

RCP is reporting that TIPP says Bush +5 today:

Bush 48, Kerry 43, Nader 1