2004 Voter Turnout Prediction Contest

[freedomburns]

Please post your final predictions for turnout of registered voters here.  Please post  two figures, your prediction on the total turn out of registered voters in the US for the election, and also your prediction for what that total number of people will be.  If you care to, you could also post a prediction on the total percentage of the voting age population that wiil show up.

Here is mine:

Turnout of registered voters: 72.2%

Total number of votes cast: 111,748,287


FYI: In 2000, 67.1% of registered voters voted, for a total of 105,417,258 votes being cast for President.


The rules are just like in SR's thread on Electoral College predictions:

The thread is a thread to post what you think will happen on the evening of November 2nd regarding voter turnout.

• Editing of the posts is NOT allowed under any circumstances. If you make a spelling error, so be it because it's forgivable.
• Please don't post messages in the thread. It's not a discussion. The only messages allowed will be explanations of your prediction.
  
  
• Posts will commence today and be accepted until November 2nd at 12:00 AM EST.  Any later and it will be disqualified.
• The poster who's prediction is correct will be named the OFFICIAL Atlas Forum Election 2004 Voter Turnout Prediction Champ. Once again the only thing you get for it is bragging rights and perhaps to be spit up on by the cutest baby in the world (see StatesRight's thread).[/i]

[Silent Hunter]

Turnout 68%- not much up on last time
Actual number- 108 million.

[J. J.]

From what I can see, part of Democratic base, African Americans, are not energized.  I'm expecting a lower turnout in that community.  I should have something by 3:00 PM ET.

[Ats]

Eh... 63-64%. Down on last time.

[Shira]

The turnout as percentage of the total eligible voters will be 60%.
The turnout as percentage of the registered voters will be 84%.

I think that the wording is confusing. Usually "Turnout" means out of the eligible.

[CollectiveInterest]

117.4-118.8 million

If Black turnout is down in 2004 it's b/c the GOP got away with using underhanded tactics to keep Blacks from voting.

[A18]

117.4-118.8 million

If Black turnout is down in 2004 it's b/c the GOP got away with using underhanded tactics to keep Blacks from voting.

Hi Collective.

You still predicting this?

[Horus]

73%

[J. J.]

117.4-118.8 million

If Black turnout is down in 2004 it's b/c the GOP got away with using underhanded tactics to keep Blacks from voting.

No, it's because the African American community doesn't like Kerry.  I live in a Black community and turnout has never been suppressed in the 5 years I've lived here.

[ATFFL]

<------

The arrow points to your post count of 817.  You epect 817 voters or 817%?

[khirkhib]

I expect about 73% of registered voters voting as well.  Could be higher.  In Oregon we are looking at 85% of registered voters voting.

[ThePrezMex]

My prediction is between 74 and 76% of registered voters.

[KerryAlva]

My prediction is between 74 and 76% of registered voters.

Fair enough, I'm looking between 65 and 70.  In Oklahoma, I'm looking between 70 and 80.

[minionofmidas]

Well, if the percentage of the electorate that is registered is up, then turnout among registered voters doesn't have to go up for the overall vote to be well up, which I think it will be.
I need some more stats to vote in this poll.

[freedomburns]

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[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

FB, I think a 72% turnout would be a lot more than 111 million voters.

I will predict 126 million voters.  Not sure what that translates into as a percentage.