Doesn’t look good

[Shira]

We are on the verge of disaster.
According to latest polls, there is a real danger that Bush will stay in office.

[Arcania]

Dont let your emotions get the best of ya

Still a lot of time to go! This one will go down to the wire..

[Trilobyte]

Both campaigns are on the verge of disaster. That's what happens when the race is close.

[A18]

We are on the verge of disaster.
According to latest polls, there is a real danger that Bush will stay in office.

And what "disaster" is going to occur if Bush gets elected?

[Pollwatch99]

I disagreed with you earlier.  The reality for Kerry is he needs a strong weekend to close the gap.  Really unlikely for this to occur.  

At this point, Kerry's EV range seems to be 220-275.  Bush's EV range seems to be 260-300 EV's

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I disagreed with you earlier.  The reality for Kerry is he needs a strong weekend to close the gap.  Really unlikely for this to occur. 

At this point, Kerry's EV range seems to be 220-275.  Bush's EV range seems to be 260-300 EV's

Kerry only tops out at 275 if you believe it is impossible for him to win Florida.  Do you really believe this?  He's only down by 1-2% in the poll averages.

[Shira]

I disagreed with you earlier.  The reality for Kerry is he needs a strong weekend to close the gap.  Really unlikely for this to occur. 

At this point, Kerry's EV range seems to be 220-275.  Bush's EV range seems to be 260-300 EV's

 He's only down by 1-2% in the poll averages.

In FL or nationally?

[Sam Spade]

Nationally.  I would argue that it's more like 2-2.5% nationally, but that's sort of pointless.

[opebo]

We are on the verge of disaster.
According to latest polls, there is a real danger that Bush will stay in office.

And what "disaster" is going to occur if Bush gets elected?

Bush as president, what else?

And all the horrors that go with that - censorship, reductions in individual liberty, warmongering, international embarrassment, a debauched currency, Born Agains at the helm...  

It might be an entertaining debacle if there were a safe haven from which to watch.  And if I weren't in dollars...

[Pollwatch99]

I disagreed with you earlier.  The reality for Kerry is he needs a strong weekend to close the gap.  Really unlikely for this to occur. 

At this point, Kerry's EV range seems to be 220-275.  Bush's EV range seems to be 260-300 EV's

Kerry only tops out at 275 if you believe it is impossible for him to win Florida.  Do you really believe this?  He's only down by 1-2% in the poll averages.

No not impossible for Kerry to take FL.  I thinks it is really unlikely that Kerry will win PA, OH, and FL at this point.  It's possible but I just don't think it a reasonable expectation unless we have dramatic poll movements.  Current national polls show Bush+3.3 as per the RCP average.  4 out of 6 have Bush at 50% or higher.  Anything can happen but at this point, you need to look to see if really dramatic shifts are occuring, I don't see any.

[DanimalBr]

If you were to put this race in terms of football analogy.  Bush was ahead by 4 with less than 2 minutes to go.  Kerry had the chance to put one last drive together and needed a touchdown to win.  He was driving.  But then the goof up on the NYT weapons Cache story combined with the Bin Laden tape resulted in a Kerry fumble and Bush getting the ball back.  Now Bush needs to just kneel on the football a couple times and run the clock out. 

[Pollwatch99]

If you were to put this race in terms of football analogy.  Bush was ahead by 4 with less than 2 minutes to go.  Kerry had the chance to put one last drive together and needed a touchdown to win.  He was driving.  But then the goof up on the NYT weapons Cache story combined with the Bin Laden tape resulted in a Kerry fumble and Bush getting the ball back.  Now Bush needs to just kneel on the football a couple times and run the clock out. 

Bingo except Kerry didn't fumble.  Bush stripped the football and created the turnover.

[Napoleon XIV]

We are on the verge of disaster.
According to latest polls, there is a real danger that Bush will stay in office.

And what "disaster" is going to occur if Bush gets elected?

Bush as president, what else?

And all the horrors that go with that - censorship, reductions in individual liberty, warmongering, international embarrassment, a debauched currency, Born Agains at the helm...  

It might be an entertaining debacle if there were a safe haven from which to watch.  And if I weren't in dollars...

Well there's always Canada... ;-)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I disagreed with you earlier.  The reality for Kerry is he needs a strong weekend to close the gap.  Really unlikely for this to occur. 

At this point, Kerry's EV range seems to be 220-275.  Bush's EV range seems to be 260-300 EV's

 He's only down by 1-2% in the poll averages.

In FL or nationally?

In Florida.  But pretty much the same nationally, going by the daily tracking polls.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If you were to put this race in terms of football analogy.  Bush was ahead by 4 with less than 2 minutes to go.  Kerry had the chance to put one last drive together and needed a touchdown to win.  He was driving.  But then the goof up on the NYT weapons Cache story combined with the Bin Laden tape resulted in a Kerry fumble and Bush getting the ball back.  Now Bush needs to just kneel on the football a couple times and run the clock out. 

Bingo except Kerry didn't fumble.  Bush stripped the football and created the turnover.

The weapons cache story has nothing to do with it.  The race has been stable since after the first debate and it is all a turnout game.  No story or issues has really caught on for either side.  Bush is narrowly winning now because he was narrowly winning a month ago, and neither candidate has been able to "move the ball" since then.

[J. J.]

From my viewpoint, it's looking better every minute.  There is definite national trend toward Bush and solid trend toward Bush in OH.  Suprise, October will be over tomorrow.

I'm interested now in PA and NJ.  Those are bonuses.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

From my viewpoint, it's looking better every minute.  There is definite national trend toward Bush and solid trend toward Bush in OH.  Suprise, October will be over tomorrow.

I'm interested now in PA and NJ.  Those are bonuses.

Where are you getting this "national trend" from?  Kerry has gained in every daily tracking poll compared to where he was a week ago.  The average gain is only about 1-1.5%, but there's clearly no national movement in Bush's favor.

[J. J.]

From my viewpoint, it's looking better every minute.  There is definite national trend toward Bush and solid trend toward Bush in OH.  Suprise, October will be over tomorrow.

I'm interested now in PA and NJ.  Those are bonuses.

Where are you getting this "national trend" from?  Kerry has gained in every daily tracking poll compared to where he was a week ago.  The average gain is only about 1-1.5%, but there's clearly no national movement in Bush's favor.

The latest national polls that show a 5-6 point Bush lead; you better read the other threads.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

From my viewpoint, it's looking better every minute.  There is definite national trend toward Bush and solid trend toward Bush in OH.  Suprise, October will be over tomorrow.

I'm interested now in PA and NJ.  Those are bonuses.

Where are you getting this "national trend" from?  Kerry has gained in every daily tracking poll compared to where he was a week ago.  The average gain is only about 1-1.5%, but there's clearly no national movement in Bush's favor.

The latest national polls that show a 5-6 point Bush lead; you better read the other threads.

You mean the latest FoxNews poll showing Bush +2?  Or have Republicans acquired faith in Newsweek all of a sudden? 

Of the past dozen or so national polls (counting the most recent from each organization), only about 3 have Bush leads as high as 5%.

[Pollwatch99]

All polls Bush+2.8% using RCP average method

[millwx]

Of the past dozen or so national polls (counting the most recent from each organization), only about 3 have Bush leads as high as 5%.

Including the latest Fox poll and not double counting ABC/WaPo, the poll average right now stands at...

Bush 47.7%, Kerry 45.9%

This goes back to polls with most data encompassing one week (so, the Gallup, LA Times, Time and AP/IPSOS aren't included).

This is hardly comfortable for either candidate.

[J. J.]

From my viewpoint, it's looking better every minute.  There is definite national trend toward Bush and solid trend toward Bush in OH.  Suprise, October will be over tomorrow.

I'm interested now in PA and NJ.  Those are bonuses.

Where are you getting this "national trend" from?  Kerry has gained in every daily tracking poll compared to where he was a week ago.  The average gain is only about 1-1.5%, but there's clearly no national movement in Bush's favor.

The latest national polls that show a 5-6 point Bush lead; you better read the other threads.

You mean the latest FoxNews poll showing Bush +2?  Or have Republicans acquired faith in Newsweek all of a sudden? 

Of the past dozen or so national polls (counting the most recent from each organization), only about 3 have Bush leads as high as 5%.

Newsweek was a good poll.  I'm a bit skeptical of everything around FOX but LV's are at +5 for Bush.  M-D's OH was up 3 for Bush; that was the one I was waiting for.  We have a trend upward for Bush, but not a surge.  

[Sam Spade]

One of the aggravating things about observing this from the outside is that up until the election we can only make educated guesses.  

There will be more public polls in the next couple of days than you can shake a stick at and that'll help.

But of course the real insides of the campaigns will probably know where this race really lies probably by tomorrow, Monday at latest.  They might even know it now.

If we only had millions of dollars to spend for our own private polling.  

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Of the past dozen or so national polls (counting the most recent from each organization), only about 3 have Bush leads as high as 5%.

Including the latest Fox poll and not double counting ABC/WaPo, the poll average right now stands at...

Bush 47.7%, Kerry 45.9%

This goes back to polls with most data encompassing one week (so, the Gallup, LA Times, Time and AP/IPSOS aren't included).

This is hardly comfortable for either candidate.

This looks about right, and has been for the last month, with a slight upward tick toward Kerry.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

From my viewpoint, it's looking better every minute.  There is definite national trend toward Bush and solid trend toward Bush in OH.  Suprise, October will be over tomorrow.

I'm interested now in PA and NJ.  Those are bonuses.

Where are you getting this "national trend" from?  Kerry has gained in every daily tracking poll compared to where he was a week ago.  The average gain is only about 1-1.5%, but there's clearly no national movement in Bush's favor.

The latest national polls that show a 5-6 point Bush lead; you better read the other threads.

You mean the latest FoxNews poll showing Bush +2?  Or have Republicans acquired faith in Newsweek all of a sudden? 

Of the past dozen or so national polls (counting the most recent from each organization), only about 3 have Bush leads as high as 5%.

Newsweek was a good poll.  I'm a bit skeptical of everything around FOX but LV's are at +5 for Bush.  M-D's OH was up 3 for Bush; that was the one I was waiting for.  We have a trend upward for Bush, but not a surge. 

The current Fox numbers are +2 Bush among LVs, TIED among RVs....but you already know this, because you posted in that poll's thread, so I don't know why you're ignoring it in this one.