Scotland 2007...by Polling District ONGOING.

[afleitch]

This will all end in tears.

Given that some LA's published maps and stuff for the General Election, I've decided to piecemeal make maps of Constituency votes on a polling district level. This allows past and future constituencies to be overlaid fairly easily.

First up Edinburgh with a small 'taster.' I hope to get this one done by the weekend.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This will all end in tears.

Probably. But good things might happen before that point!

[afleitch]

This will all end in tears.

Probably. But good things might happen before that point!

Yes. Probably the next election

I'm using Edinburgh as a test. I also want to sue what I've gathered on the city beforehand to allow me to do 'past notionals' back to the year dont to my little hearts content No doubt the party bigwigs have already done this as it gives them a great idea of where their strengths lie. Just in case they haven't I won't be doing a Labour vote share  

For the record, the test I did was on a strong Tory ward back in 99 and 03. The line seperating blue from yellow is the also boundary between Pentlands and South showing the wonderful world of middle class tactical voting.

[afleitch]

Not taking as long as I thought! Got the hang of it. Wards 1 and 2 complete.

[Torie]

Off topic, but are the Tories ever going to rise from the dead in Scotland, or are they now the functional equivalent of the Whig party up there?

[minionofmidas]

So these bolder lines are wards? Why not use the constituency boundaries instead (preferably all of them! Current Westminster, Current Scottish, Future Scottish.)

[afleitch]

So these bolder lines are wards? Why not use the constituency boundaries instead (preferably all of them! Current Westminster, Current Scottish, Future Scottish.)

The Polling Districts were redrawn in 2007. They were designed so that groups of polling districts in different combinations can give you wards, Westminster constituencies and Holyrood constituencies as well as the new Holyrood constituencies. Some polling districts consist of a just few farmhouses for example if a Westminster boundary is a tiny bit different from the Holyrood one. It's actually easier to do this sort of exercise on a ward by ward basis. I can then overlay the old/new Holyrood constituencies and the Westminster ones. I even have data for the 83-97 seats etc so can do a best fit.

Some councils are more willing than others to release this info. Glasgow, which I would have done first don't appear to have it in a good map form. South Lanarkshire do (I'll be taking a keen interest in the breadkowns in the Hamilton North and East ward ) as does Aberdeenshire.

Being pathetically into this sort of thing I really want to tally the data for old seats. Would the SNP have won Monklands East, who would have won Hillhead. That sort of thing.

[minionofmidas]

So these bolder lines are wards? Why not use the constituency boundaries instead (preferably all of them! Current Westminster, Current Scottish, Future Scottish.)

The Polling Districts were redrawn in 2007. They were designed so that groups of polling districts in different combinations can give you wards, Westminster constituencies and Holyrood constituencies as well as the new Holyrood constituencies. Some polling districts consist of a just few farmhouses for example if a Westminster boundary is a tiny bit different from the Holyrood one. It's actually easier to do this sort of exercise on a ward by ward basis. I can then overlay the old/new Holyrood constituencies and the Westminster ones. I even have data for the 83-97 seats etc so can do a best fit.

So you're doing it by wards first, give us the maps as I describe above later?

Btw, what's with the two tiny slivers in western Edinburgh near the ward boundary - an example of what you describe with the farmhouses?

[afleitch]

So you're doing it by wards first, give us the maps as I describe above later?

Btw, what's with the two tiny slivers in western Edinburgh near the ward boundary - an example of what you describe with the farmhouses?
[/quote]

Yeah; I've now decided to do it by constituency, but i'll keep the map as is till I'm done then superimpose the constituencies. The two slivers near the ward boundary in the west are even worse than just farm houses - in fact no one lives there! They are small parcels of land right at the junction of the M8 Motorway with the Edinburgh City Bypass. There are a few polling districts with (almost) no-one in them which is what happens when the 'building blocs' of the wards and the constituencies don't quite match though most of them are just fields or railway sidings and things like that. For counting purposes they are grouped with the nearest 'proper' district.

Also just to note one thing that I can't take into account; postal votes. They are not batched by polling district.

[minionofmidas]

What are they batched by? Ward; or Constituency?

[afleitch]

Edinburgh coming on well Quite a few interesting voting patterns particularly regarding the SNP that appear fairly 'new' and may be temporary.

However curiousity got the better of me so I had a look at Hamilton North and East Ward to see the pattern there. Now, the available data does not provide information on the votes cast at local elections, but patterns of voting should be quite interesting.

The Total Constituency Votes cast in the ward were

Lab - 2012 - 40.8
SNP -1540 - 31.2
Con - 762 - 15.4
Lib - 422  8.5
Ind - 201 -4.7

This is lower than the total votes if you look up the 2007 local election results for the ward. This is, again down to postal votes which cannot be tallied at this low level. However it doesnt affect too much the end picture. The two Labour candidates together polled 45.2%, the SNP 31.3%, me the Tory 16.2% and and the two indies 7.2% together. Note that the Lib Dems did not stand a candidate.

Labour polled better locally than at the constituency level. The SNP were level.

The Tory % votes for the polling districts were as follows

HS17/30         8.7
HS/24/33/40 15.8
HS51             16.1
HS52/53/54   34.9
HB01             18.1
HB02/7          14
HB06              4.2
HB08             17.4


They won the district where they polled 34.9%. Unsuprising; this is the richest part of Hamilton at the south of the ward containing Ferniegair, the Avonbridge (at the River Avon) and the village of Chatelherault, the old hunting grounds of the Dukes of Hamilton. Good results too in HB01 and HB08. HB01, where the SNP topped the poll contains Wellhall Road, a very good area and the Hamilton Rugby Club. HB08 extends from the Council HQ up Bothwell Road to Bothwell Brig and takes in Hamilton Parks Racecourse.

HB06 is the interwar estate of Hillhouse. Lots of mortaged homes here, ex-council, right to by and all that. HS17/30 is Burnbank. It's the most impoverished part of Hamilton and is under the Social Inclusion Partnership. I spent a good few days there (no one else did...). To get something close to even 8.7% there is encouraging

[afleitch]

I will return to this I now have a handy tabulation for Glasgow and a map.



Looking at Al's recent 1950-1970 map it's fairly easy to match up polling districts to those boundaries so I can do a few 'reverse notionals' too.

[afleitch]

Up first is a basic 'who won' what map (in progress) In many areas parties are seperated by a handful of votes (especially in the Hillhead area)

I've so far completed Anniesland, Kelvin, Maryhill,Govan, Pollock and Cathcart. You'll notice that Sturgeon lost Govan proper but (as you will see) swept Pollockshields most of which will join Glasgow Southside.

The Tories also 'win' two polling districts. Their vote is super concentrated and can only be seen at this level.

Once this is completed I'll get % figures for each PD.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I remember checking the results in Glasgow Govan when I knew where to find the files online (I don't now ) and noted that general pattern, but didn't catch that it was quite so stark. What are the patterns like for the list vote?

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Checking the Nomis maps (things are quicker/easier that way) and hoping they're right on place names*, but the one Tory pd seems to be in a place called Hillpark, and the other in Jordanhill.

*Which they aren't always; they seem to think that Yardley Wood is in Hall Green. To use a Birmingham example. Must have been confused by the railway station. How the middle classes of Hall Green would be horrified by that error if only they knew.

[afleitch]

Quick answer before bed on the Tory polling districts; one is in Jordanhill (Broompark) one of Glasgow's most exclusive parts and the other is Newlands where East Renfrewshire 'runs' into Glasgow (rather than the other way around)

The area around Hillhead is quite something; the combined Tory/SNP votes in some parts are astounding (an SNP vote that came out of nowhere in 2007)

I've found a quicker way to do this so hopefully I can get at least a constituency done (in terms of % share) a day.