What if Ford had chosen Rockefeller of NY over Dole as his running mate?

[sg0508]

Every election seems to point to the argument that the VP choice usually doesn't draw in votes or cost you votes.  Some examples:

1) In 1988, despite choosing Quayle, Bush beat Dukakis handily.  Conversely, Dukakis chose Bentsen who was very strong, but it made little difference.

2) In 1984, Mondale chose Ferraro and Reagan still won 49 states, including Ferraro's NY.

That being said, 1976 was the last horrah for the true moderate wing of the GOP.  Bush Sr. was somewhat moderate, but Ford was the last Republican to have the true, socially moderate platform. 

Rockefeller of NY was supposedly on the shortlist, but Ford chose Dole to appease to the right wing of the party.  In the end, Dole didn't really help all that much.  Carter did very well in ND, SD, KS (didn't win any, but was competitive) and some other midwestern states that democrats (at the time), typically did not do well in on a presidential level.

What would the map have looked like in the end had the republicans chosen the full moderate ticket?  This is one election where I think maybe the VP choice could have been the difference.  Even if Ford traded away the Dakotas (7 EVs at the time), Rockefeller could have put him over the top in NY and PA where moderate voters in the end won the state for Carter.  Another state that could have been affected as FL, which suburban voters again won the state for Carter.

Ford's late charge probably got him the 3 west coast states and while it was a sprited rally, it wasn't enough. 

[Bo]

Ford/Rockefeller-275 EV
Carter/Mondale-263 EV

Rocky helps deliver NY and OH for Ford, but causes him to lose several other more conservative states.

[hawkeye59]

If it was Benson Rockefeller, though...

[hawkeye59]

286-252 Carter

[yougo1000]

[Lincoln Republican]

If it was Benson Rockefeller, though...

Just noticed this.  I got a good laugh out of it.  Thanks.  Ben was Secretary of State in 1976 and before that Secretary of the Navy.  He also won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1976.  So he could have been a very credible VP candidate.

In all modesty, I doubt Ben makes the election results that lopsided, almost but not quite. 

[Derek]

http://

If only the GOP could do that well in the northeast today.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

If it was Benson Rockefeller, though...

Just noticed this.  I got a good laugh out of it.  Thanks.  Ben was Secretary of State in 1976 and before that Secretary of the Navy.  He also won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1976.  So he could have been a very credible VP candidate.

In all modesty, I doubt Ben makes the election results that lopsided, almost but not quite. 

Yes, yes, we all know. My former character's great-great-great-great-plus some great-grandpa was beheaded for sleeping with Catherine Howard. Would that scare family values voters away?

(Hawkeye, stop harrashing Winfield, Americana is over)

[enlightened despot]

I'm reading Thomas DeFrank's book "Write It When I'm Gone: Remarkable Off-the-Record Conversations with Gerald R. Ford" and I think this passage is worth considering (Ford is quoted) ...

"I'm embarrassed that I didn't fight through, but the truth is Nelson and I had a long talk — very private — and after we got through, it was his view, as well as mine, that his candidacy as vice president at the convention could very well have resulted in my not being nominated for president.*"

Based on that, I think that there would be an independent challenge from the right, wrecking Ford's chances and giving Carter a bigger win.

*DeFrank says that Rocky blamed his being dropped on two guys — Don Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney. So if you assume that Rocky is kept, that might have drastically changed the paths taken by two of the most important politicians of the past ten years.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Despite conservative blacklash, I think Rocky actually might helped Ford win. How would that affect Republican ideology, if the two won and stayed for next term?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

My wild guess:

Ford/Rockefeller: 289
Carter/Mondale: 249

[Lincoln Republican]

Actually, Kalwejt, Hawkeye's very witty posting is not harassment, but rather demonstrating a very clever sense of humor, which I find most refreshing and entertaining.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Actually, Kalwejt, Hawkeye's very witty posting is not harassment, but rather demonstrating a very clever sense of humor, which I find most refreshing and entertaining.

I know, he's smart fellow

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

430-108

[Derek]

430-108

You think Bob Dole helped that much?

[Lincoln Republican]

Despite conservative blacklash, I think Rocky actually might helped Ford win. How would that affect Republican ideology, if the two won and stayed for next term?

The Ford/Rockefeller administration would have lasted until January of 1979, which is when Nelson died.

One would think that the Republican party would have moved more to the center under this administration.

I believe, however, there would have been pressure on President Ford, going into the 1980 election, to pick a more conservative Vice President to replace the deceased Nelson Rockefeller.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Despite conservative blacklash, I think Rocky actually might helped Ford win. How would that affect Republican ideology, if the two won and stayed for next term?

The Ford/Rockefeller administration would have lasted until January of 1979, which is when Nelson died.

One would think that the Republican party would have moved more to the center under this administration.

I believe, however, there would have been pressure on President Ford, going into the 1980 election, to pick a more conservative Vice President to replace the deceased Nelson Rockefeller.

Due to butterflied Rocky might survive beyond 1981, but if not, true, I'd see a pressure to appoint a conservative veep.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

By the way, can we assume following scenario:

Ford and Rockefeller have been narrowly elected in 1976. Due to butterflies Rockefeller didn't die.

1980... I don't think GOP would be able to hold on WH and Rocky probably, at age of 72, wouldn't make a bid again. But how extended Ford/Rockefeller administration would affect future, esspecially GOP ideological profile?

Discuss