Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)

[afleitch]

Apparent YouGov

SNP 40
Labour 39
Tory 11
Lib Dem 5

Nothing yet on the regionals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparent YouGov

SNP 40
Labour 39
Tory 11
Lib Dem 5

Nothing yet on the regionals.

They are out now.

wtf

Constituency:SNP 40%, Lab 39%, Con 11%, LD 5%
Regional: Lab 39%, SNP 32%, Con 12%, Grn 6%, LD 5%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Extraordinary news; there appear to be several constituencies where the LibDems have failed to find a candidate.

[Phony Moderate]

Extraordinary news; there appear to be several constituencies where the LibDems have failed to find a candidate.

Namely....?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Extraordinary news; there appear to be several constituencies where the LibDems have failed to find a candidate.

Namely....?

Clydesdale appears to have been confirmed. There are rumours about others, but I've not checked.

[afleitch]

Extraordinary news; there appear to be several constituencies where the LibDems have failed to find a candidate.

Namely....?

Clydesdale appears to have been confirmed. There are rumours about others, but I've not checked.

That was a bit of a shocker as I know of a few Lib Dems who could have stood there. With the Lib Dems out, and their vote share last time round higher than the Labour majority this one will be intesting to watch

The Greens are not standing in Glasgow Kelvin; very good for the 'not Labour' vote, but not necessarily good for the SNP. However this seat is subject to so much 'churn' you'd be lucky to find more than a 3rd of voters who were resident in the seat last time round.

Strathkelvin and Bearsden is also back to a 4 party race. It will be interesting to see where the rump of Jean Turner's vote goes. I'm going to check the cross-tabulations for the regional vote back in 2007 to try and get a feel.

The same with Cunninghame North; this will be a definite boost to the SNP.

[You kip if you want to...]

I'm feeling that Salmond will still be FM after the election... If that was the case, May 5th would be a crap night for Lib, Lab and Con, bit like last year I guess.

[afleitch]

Jean Turner (IND) polled 6742 votes in Strathkelvin and Bearsden.

On the list vote:

1412 voted Labour
1355 voted SNP
1013 voted Conservative
727 voted Liberal Democrat

Campbell Martin (IND) polled 4423 votes in Cunninghame North

On the list vote:

1136 voted SNP
652 voted Labour
540 voted Conservative
399 voted Liberal Democrat

Martin Bartos (GRN) polled 2971 votes in Glasgow Kelvin

On the list vote:

1687 voted Green
360 voted SNP
292 voted for the SSP/Solidarity
229 voted Liberal Democrat
208 voted Labour
36 voted Conservative

Fraser Grieve (LIBDEM) polled 2951 votes in Clydesdale

On the list vote:

1716 voted Liberal Democrat
175 voted SNP
174 voted Labour
118 voted Conservative

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I thought there are no Tories in Scotland, save afleitch, since Douglas-Home died in 1995.

[redcommander]

I thought there are no Tories in Scotland, save afleitch, since Douglas-Home died in 1995.

No, but they have lost a lot of their support to the SNP since Major was Prime Minister.

[joevsimp]

I really don't get that, given that one's the Unionist party and one's th Nationalist party

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

That's why. Anyone who wants Scotland to have more power has abandon the Tories.

[YL]

Extraordinary news; there appear to be several constituencies where the LibDems have failed to find a candidate.

Namely....?

Clydesdale appears to have been confirmed. There are rumours about others, but I've not checked.

From the Herald:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/election-2011/constituencies/clydesdale

[afleitch]

ScotPulse post debate survey results. 991 weighted respondents.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Wow. What the hell did Gray do, murder someone's mother!?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, it's just that he's... well... appropriately named.

[afleitch]

Gray announces for the second time at the Scotsman 'high heid yin' debate he would have raised council tax had he won in 2007.

[afleitch]

New poll in The Sunday Times

SNP 37/37
Lab 37/32
Con 13/11
Lib 8/7
Grn -/5

While I don't have the details for the smaller parties, the Times calculates that the SNP would remain the largest party.

[You kip if you want to...]

Yup, the SNP are staying. Bad times for Ed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-12961012

[Peter the Lefty]

I hope the SNP stay.  Though a Labour win would give them some nice momentum (I'm a Labor voter nationally, but an SNP voter for Scotland).  But if Labor looses (bad), than this would be a big blow to Ed Miliband, which he well deserves for leading Labour so badly. 

[Leftbehind]

Would it not be percieved as Iain Gray's fault rather than Ed Milibands, especially since Labour will at the same time be achieving a decent result in the locals?

While not especially overjoyed with Ed's performance so far, I'd rather him than any number of the Blairites lining up to continue New Labour's glorious successes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would it not be percieved as Iain Gray's fault rather than Ed Milibands, especially since Labour will at the same time be achieving a decent result in the locals?

And Wales.

Yeah, it would be hard to present a poor result in Scotland (however defined) as a personal blow to Miliband; Scottish politics has always been a little distant and has grown significantly more so since devolution. And, of course, Labour ought to make gains regardless; the LibDems (and to a lesser extent the Tories) are not going to do well.

Of course that won't stop people trying. If it happens.

[afleitch]

The 'Scottish' Sun has been bahving somewhat curiously. Not only as it devoted it's front page to the election for three days so far, it also seems to be bigging up Salmond each time.

Which makes a change from this;



For the Daily Record, the fact that no national paper backs the SNP leading to bizarre 'they made me say it sir' style endorsements of Labour in 2007 doesn't appear to have any effect on voting intention.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Go SNP