PA: Rasmussen: Toomey crushes Specter but a tie against Sestak
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  PA: Rasmussen: Toomey crushes Specter but a tie against Sestak
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Author Topic: PA: Rasmussen: Toomey crushes Specter but a tie against Sestak  (Read 2625 times)
MR. KAYNE WEST
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« on: May 10, 2010, 04:50:12 PM »

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-05-06

Summary: D: 40%, R: 42%, I: 10%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Torie
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2010, 12:54:27 PM »

These numbers can't  but hurt Specter in the primary I would think. If I were a loyal Dem they would certainly influence my vote.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2010, 03:38:36 PM »

Ummm..the numbers have been entered a bit wrong. It currently states (erroneously) that Specter is back 2 points on Toomey, not Sestak. At any rate, more fantastic news!
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2010, 03:44:42 PM »

My prediction: Specter goes down in flames, thus treating us to possibly one of the most spectacularly interesting election showdowns of this cycle.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2010, 06:57:08 PM »

Sestak v. Toomey will be a dogfight.
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sg0508
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« Reply #5 on: May 14, 2010, 01:59:41 PM »

Toomey will lose this race going away.  He is a 100% misfit in PA, but the far right will get their wish as he will lead the ticket (sigh).
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Saxwsylvania
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« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2010, 02:59:44 PM »

Toomey will lose this race going away.  He is a 100% misfit in PA, but the far right will get their wish as he will lead the ticket (sigh).

How is Toomey a 100% misfit?  Remember, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  Toomey is a better candidate than Santorum by far.  To suggest that he will lose this race "going away" is ridiculous.
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sg0508
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« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2010, 03:40:15 PM »

Toomey will lose this race going away.  He is a 100% misfit in PA, but the far right will get their wish as he will lead the ticket (sigh).

How is Toomey a 100% misfit?  Remember, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  Toomey is a better candidate than Santorum by far.  To suggest that he will lose this race "going away" is ridiculous.
Santorum was elected in a very strong republican year (1994) against Wooford and struggled against a weak opponent in 2000.  He was bombed in 2006.  Watch and learn.  Once Toomey falls behind after the democratic primary is over, he's done.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: May 14, 2010, 03:43:18 PM »

Toomey will lose this race going away.  He is a 100% misfit in PA, but the far right will get their wish as he will lead the ticket (sigh).

How is Toomey a 100% misfit?  Remember, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  Toomey is a better candidate than Santorum by far.  To suggest that he will lose this race "going away" is ridiculous.
Santorum was elected in a very strong republican year (1994) against Wooford and struggled against a weak opponent in 2000.  He was bombed in 2006.  Watch and learn.  Once Toomey falls behind after the democratic primary is over, he's done.

Still, if Specter survives the primary (still close to a 50% chance of that), I'd give Toomey a better than 50% chance of winning the general.
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sg0508
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« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2010, 03:48:42 PM »
« Edited: May 14, 2010, 03:56:09 PM by sg0508 »

Toomey will lose this race going away.  He is a 100% misfit in PA, but the far right will get their wish as he will lead the ticket (sigh).

How is Toomey a 100% misfit?  Remember, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  Toomey is a better candidate than Santorum by far.  To suggest that he will lose this race "going away" is ridiculous.
Santorum was elected in a very strong republican year (1994) against Wooford and struggled against a weak opponent in 2000.  He was bombed in 2006.  Watch and learn.  Once Toomey falls behind after the democratic primary is over, he's done.

Still, if Specter survives the primary (still close to a 50% chance of that), I'd give Toomey a better than 50% chance of winning the general.
My speculation is that Specter loses the primary, which is probably not what the GOP banked on. They planned on facing Specter.  From what I understand from friends in PA, Sestak is a stronger opponent than some give him credit for.
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Smash255
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« Reply #10 on: May 14, 2010, 04:20:57 PM »

Toomey will lose this race going away.  He is a 100% misfit in PA, but the far right will get their wish as he will lead the ticket (sigh).

How is Toomey a 100% misfit?  Remember, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  Toomey is a better candidate than Santorum by far.  To suggest that he will lose this race "going away" is ridiculous.
Santorum was elected in a very strong republican year (1994) against Wooford and struggled against a weak opponent in 2000.  He was bombed in 2006.  Watch and learn.  Once Toomey falls behind after the democratic primary is over, he's done.

Agreed, while it won't be quite the same margins as Sestak won't do quite as well as Casey in the T & portions of the west, this has the makings of 2006 all over again in the SE.   Toomey is going to get utterly obliterated there, and he simply wont be able to recover from those margins. 
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sg0508
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« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2010, 04:27:32 PM »

The rule is, republicans generally need at least 25% in Philly and they have to at a minimum, split the burbs surrounding Philly county.  In Pitt, Toomey will do slightly better, but he will get mauled in SE Pennsylvania. 

If Sestak has any type of moderate appeal, he will also eat into central PA too.
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Smash255
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« Reply #12 on: May 14, 2010, 04:53:27 PM »

The rule is, republicans generally need at least 25% in Philly and they have to at a minimum, split the burbs surrounding Philly county.  In Pitt, Toomey will do slightly better, but he will get mauled in SE Pennsylvania. 

If Sestak has any type of moderate appeal, he will also eat into central PA too.

Pretty much agree.  I use to have this argument with Phil all the time.   No one Republican or Democrat has won statewide in decades (perhaps ever) without winning suburban Philly.   Now with some of the gains the GOP has made out west perhaps they can afford to lose suburban Philly and still win statewide.  However, they at least need to be able to put up a fight there and be competitive.   Toomey can't and would get mauled there, especially against Sestak, and the margins would be just too much to overcome.
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Rowan
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« Reply #13 on: May 14, 2010, 06:20:25 PM »

Didn't Toomey represent parts of Southeast PA?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #14 on: May 14, 2010, 07:14:02 PM »

Didn't Toomey represent parts of Southeast PA?

Depends on whether you count the Lehigh Valley as SE PA. He preceded Charlie Dent in PA-15.
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J. J.
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« Reply #15 on: May 14, 2010, 07:48:11 PM »

Didn't Toomey represent parts of Southeast PA?

In terms of SE PA, yes.  In terms of the Phila suburbs, no.
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J. J.
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« Reply #16 on: May 14, 2010, 07:53:42 PM »
« Edited: May 14, 2010, 10:41:08 PM by J. J. »

These numbers can't  but hurt Specter in the primary I would think. If I were a loyal Dem they would certainly influence my vote.

The problem is, in this race, to be a "loyal Dem," you have to vote against Obama.

I doubt if either candidate will go down in flames; this looks like a close race.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #17 on: May 15, 2010, 02:09:06 PM »

It really depends on how good Toomey is. If he really sucks as a campaigner then Sestak will roll him but if Toomey proves to be a good candidate then it will be a fight. Let us remember that when Specter ditched the GOP Toomey strategically began to move to the center especially with his comments on Abortion and other issues. The guy isn't some knee jerk ideologue otherwise he wouldn't have done that.

It also depends on what issues dominate the campaign. Obamacare is opposed by I think 10% or slightly lower margin in PA, and Cap-n-Trade won't exactly fly out in Western/Northeastern PA. Some of Sestak's votes would certainly help Toomey in areas of PA.

As for the Philly burbs, if Abortion dominates the debate then yes, Toomey would get crushed, but in this environmment I don't see that happening, Economy, taxes, Deficits, Healthcare, Cap-n-Trade, and Immigration will all be bigger issues. And then it goes back to how good Toomey is at forming a winning message and sticking to it. Lets not forget, that Toomey has been leading for the better part of a year now in PA against both Specter and Sestak, that he was leading at all in PA, is somewhat of a miracle in and of itself.

The rule is, republicans generally need at least 25% in Philly and they have to at a minimum, split the burbs surrounding Philly county.  In Pitt, Toomey will do slightly better, but he will get mauled in SE Pennsylvania. 

If Sestak has any type of moderate appeal, he will also eat into central PA too.

Sestak is by far harder to beat then Specter, but lets not underestimate Toomey here either. He finally has his shot and I don't see him letting Sestak take this away from him without a big fight.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #18 on: May 15, 2010, 02:42:25 PM »

These numbers can't  but hurt Specter in the primary I would think. If I were a loyal Dem they would certainly influence my vote.

The problem is, in this race, to be a "loyal Dem," you have to vote against Obama.


I really don't think this is going to be a quandry for most Dems. Plenty of people are capable of loving and supporting Obama and then making their own choice for Senate. 
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sg0508
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« Reply #19 on: May 15, 2010, 09:00:18 PM »

It really depends on how good Toomey is. If he really sucks as a campaigner then Sestak will roll him but if Toomey proves to be a good candidate then it will be a fight. Let us remember that when Specter ditched the GOP Toomey strategically began to move to the center especially with his comments on Abortion and other issues. The guy isn't some knee jerk ideologue otherwise he wouldn't have done that.

It also depends on what issues dominate the campaign. Obamacare is opposed by I think 10% or slightly lower margin in PA, and Cap-n-Trade won't exactly fly out in Western/Northeastern PA. Some of Sestak's votes would certainly help Toomey in areas of PA.

As for the Philly burbs, if Abortion dominates the debate then yes, Toomey would get crushed, but in this environmment I don't see that happening, Economy, taxes, Deficits, Healthcare, Cap-n-Trade, and Immigration will all be bigger issues. And then it goes back to how good Toomey is at forming a winning message and sticking to it. Lets not forget, that Toomey has been leading for the better part of a year now in PA against both Specter and Sestak, that he was leading at all in PA, is somewhat of a miracle in and of itself.

The rule is, republicans generally need at least 25% in Philly and they have to at a minimum, split the burbs surrounding Philly county.  In Pitt, Toomey will do slightly better, but he will get mauled in SE Pennsylvania. 

If Sestak has any type of moderate appeal, he will also eat into central PA too.

Sestak is by far harder to beat then Specter, but lets not underestimate Toomey here either. He finally has his shot and I don't see him letting Sestak take this away from him without a big fight.
We'll see what Toomey starts to talk about in this campaign.  If abortion starts to become his focal point, forget it.  The race will be over by August.  Jerry Kilgore of VA clearly didn't get that though and he lost in VA in one of the worst campaigns I can ever remember.   After the primary run against Specter in 2004, I have no faith that he will run a more effective campaign this time.  In the end, he needs to show independents and democrats why they should support him.  Let's see if he understands that.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #20 on: May 15, 2010, 09:59:23 PM »
« Edited: May 17, 2010, 10:55:54 PM by Senator North Carolina Yankee (AFL-CIO-NC) »

It really depends on how good Toomey is. If he really sucks as a campaigner then Sestak will roll him but if Toomey proves to be a good candidate then it will be a fight. Let us remember that when Specter ditched the GOP Toomey strategically began to move to the center especially with his comments on Abortion and other issues. The guy isn't some knee jerk ideologue otherwise he wouldn't have done that.

It also depends on what issues dominate the campaign. Obamacare is opposed by I think 10% or slightly lower margin in PA, and Cap-n-Trade won't exactly fly out in Western/Northeastern PA. Some of Sestak's votes would certainly help Toomey in areas of PA.

As for the Philly burbs, if Abortion dominates the debate then yes, Toomey would get crushed, but in this environmment I don't see that happening, Economy, taxes, Deficits, Healthcare, Cap-n-Trade, and Immigration will all be bigger issues. And then it goes back to how good Toomey is at forming a winning message and sticking to it. Lets not forget, that Toomey has been leading for the better part of a year now in PA against both Specter and Sestak, that he was leading at all in PA, is somewhat of a miracle in and of itself.

The rule is, republicans generally need at least 25% in Philly and they have to at a minimum, split the burbs surrounding Philly county.  In Pitt, Toomey will do slightly better, but he will get mauled in SE Pennsylvania.  

If Sestak has any type of moderate appeal, he will also eat into central PA too.

Sestak is by far harder to beat then Specter, but lets not underestimate Toomey here either. He finally has his shot and I don't see him letting Sestak take this away from him without a big fight.
We'll see what Toomey starts to talk about in this campaign.  If abortion starts to become his focal point, forget it.  The race will be over by August.  Jerry Kilgore of VA clearly didn't get that though and he lost in VA in one of the worst campaigns I can ever remember.   After the primary run against Specter in 2004, I have no faith that he will run a more effective campaign this time.  In the end, he needs to show independents and democrats why they should support him.  Let's see if he understands that.

You underestimate Toomey and its mostly in your view of the 2004 PA GOP primary. You are a three term congressmen from a relatively un-influential part of the state (Lehigh Valley) and you are running against a 4 term incumbent Senator supported by a President at the height of his popularity, and a party establisment in a largely machine state, you have substanially less money, and only your values, principles and compelling arguement. Thats that makings of a 30's showing in an environment like 2004. Toomey got 49% in those conditions.


As for Toomey "understanding" what he has to do, remember this: http://www.nationalreview.com/bench-memos/49612/pat-toomeys-ill-considered-support-sotomayor/ed-whelan

I choose the National Review article to show a "Conservative" source criticizing Toomey. Actually article: http://www.toomeyforsenate.com/content/sotomayor-qualified-mainstream-philadelphia-inquirer

And what about this: http://www.toomeyforsenate.com/content/welcome-our-tent-pittsburgh-post-gazette
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Badger
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« Reply #21 on: May 17, 2010, 08:03:39 AM »

Toomey will lose this race going away.  He is a 100% misfit in PA, but the far right will get their wish as he will lead the ticket (sigh).

How is Toomey a 100% misfit?  Remember, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  Toomey is a better candidate than Santorum by far.  To suggest that he will lose this race "going away" is ridiculous.
Santorum was elected in a very strong republican year (1994) against Wooford and struggled against a weak opponent in 2000.  He was bombed in 2006.  Watch and learn.  Once Toomey falls behind after the democratic primary is over, he's done.

Agreed, while it won't be quite the same margins as Sestak won't do quite as well as Casey in the T & portions of the west, this has the makings of 2006 all over again in the SE.   Toomey is going to get utterly obliterated there, and he simply wont be able to recover from those margins. 

As much as I would like these analyses to be correct, 2010 stands to be politically a lot more similar to 1994 than 2006.
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