EU Economic Spring Report
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Author Topic: EU Economic Spring Report  (Read 481 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: May 06, 2010, 12:39:38 AM »

Couldn´t find an English chart, but here it is:



The first row (Wirtschaftswachstum) means "GDP growth" in 2010 and 2011.

The second (Budgetsaldo) means "Budget deficit" in 2010 and 2011.

And the third (Arbeitslose) means "Unemployment Rate" in 2010 and 2011.

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2010_spring_forecast_en.htm
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2010, 08:33:58 AM »

Is that the unemployment rate or the change in unemployment? Because some of those numbers look unusually low compared to unemployment rates in boom times in a lot of Europe.

Also, the deficit is (I think) as a percentage of GDP.
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Beet
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2010, 11:44:23 AM »

Is this chart some sort of joke? If the markets don't stabilize soon, no one can expect these numbers to come true.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2010, 01:08:15 PM »

Is that the unemployment rate or the change in unemployment? Because some of those numbers look unusually low compared to unemployment rates in boom times in a lot of Europe.

They are the official unemployment rates, measured by Eurostat. It`s a phone survey and can be compared with US rates, because the BLS also estimates the rate according to ILO definitions.

The real unemployment rates are completely different though, because Eurostat`s definition of "employed" means that you have worked at least 1 hour per week (!!!). Therefore many people lie in the phone polls and say they are employed (because they maybe work 2 hours a week) and therefore count as employed.

Eurostat for example thinks that only 180.000 people are unemployed in Austria, but in reality there are more than 250.000 unemployed actually registered at the Labor Service, collecting benefits. There are also 80.000 (mostly young Austrians) every month that are stuffed in professional training courses for about 10 hours every week. These people are also not included in the official statistics and therefore the unemployment rate would be higher by 1-2% every month.

In Germany for example, there are about 3.4 Mio. official unemployed, but about 8 Mio. Germans are on welfare (Hartz-4). These people do not show up in the official numbers. Therefore the national labor agencies have a lot of camouflaging and deceiving going on in manipulating the numbers ...

Also, the deficit is (I think) as a percentage of GDP.

Yes, the deficits are measured as a percentage of the GDP.

In Austria, the deficit might be lower in the next years than what is predicted here, because the SPÖVP government is already talking about increasing a few taxes such as tabacco and alcohol taxes and imposing taxes on the rich and banks. Maybe they also introduce a new eco-tax such as higher fees for oil and gas. They will also cut spending in various areas and therefore they estimate that the Austrian deficit will be 2% by 2012. I think this makes us a leader in EU deficit reduction and most people are also OK with raising some taxes to balance the budget. I also think raising the taxes is good.
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