1968: Nixon vs. Humphrey with no Wallace

[Bo]

Nixon/Agnew-391 EV-53% PV
Humphrey/Muskie-147 EV-47% PV

[Bo]

Why would a ticket with two Northern liberals (who supported civil rights and affirmative action) win Arkansas? Also, I think that Humphrey's MI margin was too large for Nixon to overcome, even without Wallace. Finally, I think Agnew would have delivered his home state of MD without Wallace running. What do you think the PV would have looked like?

[Bo]

Dallasfan, what do you think the PV would have been?

[Bo]

Why would a ticket with two Northern liberals (who supported civil rights and affirmative action) win Arkansas? Also, I think that Humphrey's MI margin was too large for Nixon to overcome, even without Wallace. Finally, I think Agnew would have delivered his home state of MD without Wallace running. What do you think the PV would have looked like?

Arkansas was very strongly Democratic at the time. Almost it's entire congressional delegation was Democratic.

Similarly, Spiro Agnew only barely won his election in Maryland (against a bad Democratic candidate) and had only been in office for a year or two.

As for Michigan, you may be right.

In regards to Maryland, Nixon only lost it by 1%, and since Nixon was perceived to be closer ideologically to Wallace than Humphrey was, I could see enough Wallace supporters swinging over to him to give MD to Nixon. In regards to Arkansas, even if it was a heavily Democratic state in 1968, most of the Democrats elected there were conservatives who opposed affiramtive action and large govt. spending (and formerly opposed civil rights). Those Democrats would be much closer ideologically to Nixon than to Humphrey, and thus I think enough Democrats in Arkansas would have crossed over to vote for Nixon, allowing him to win Arkansas.

[Bo]

Humphrey probably picks up most of the south, but doesn't carry any more northern states (he might even lose Pennsylvannia).

I don't think Southerners would be very eager to vote for a Northern liberal who supports affirmative action and greater govt. spending.

[Bo]

How the hell does Humphrey win in the south?

He doesn't.