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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Babette d'Interlaken, Apocrypha)
  1968: Nixon vs. Humphrey with no Wallace
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Author Topic: 1968: Nixon vs. Humphrey with no Wallace  (Read 10209 times)
Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
hantheguitarman
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« on: May 05, 2010, 06:04:08 pm »

Let's say Wallace doesn't run as a third party candidate and refuses to make an endorsement for either Nixon or Humphrey. How does election night look?

Discuss, with maps.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2010, 06:11:32 pm »



Nixon/Agnew-391 EV-53% PV
Humphrey/Muskie-147 EV-47% PV
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Apocrypha
Dallasfan65
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« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2010, 06:17:01 pm »

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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2010, 06:34:54 pm »


Why would a ticket with two Northern liberals (who supported civil rights and affirmative action) win Arkansas? Also, I think that Humphrey's MI margin was too large for Nixon to overcome, even without Wallace. Finally, I think Agnew would have delivered his home state of MD without Wallace running. What do you think the PV would have looked like?
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Apocrypha
Dallasfan65
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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2010, 06:45:44 pm »


Why would a ticket with two Northern liberals (who supported civil rights and affirmative action) win Arkansas? Also, I think that Humphrey's MI margin was too large for Nixon to overcome, even without Wallace. Finally, I think Agnew would have delivered his home state of MD without Wallace running. What do you think the PV would have looked like?

Arkansas was very strongly Democratic at the time. Almost it's entire congressional delegation was Democratic.

Similarly, Spiro Agnew only barely won his election in Maryland (against a bad Democratic candidate) and had only been in office for a year or two.

As for Michigan, you may be right.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2010, 06:47:36 pm »

Dallasfan, what do you think the PV would have been?
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Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
hantheguitarman
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2010, 06:52:56 pm »

Well had every vote for Wallace in Michigan gone to Nixon, Nixon would have carried the state. The question is whether every vote in Michigan would've gone to Nixon.

I remember reading somewhere that 10% of Wallace voters would've voted for Nixon, and 4% would've voted for Humphrey if Wallace was not on the ballot. In that case, then Nixon wins a 53%-46% PV victory.
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Apocrypha
Dallasfan65
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2010, 06:54:28 pm »

Dallasfan, what do you think the PV would have been?

I'm not good with PV's, nationally.

I fancy myself excellent with them state-wide though. (Though probably not in reality Wink )
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2010, 06:54:35 pm »


Why would a ticket with two Northern liberals (who supported civil rights and affirmative action) win Arkansas? Also, I think that Humphrey's MI margin was too large for Nixon to overcome, even without Wallace. Finally, I think Agnew would have delivered his home state of MD without Wallace running. What do you think the PV would have looked like?

Arkansas was very strongly Democratic at the time. Almost it's entire congressional delegation was Democratic.

Similarly, Spiro Agnew only barely won his election in Maryland (against a bad Democratic candidate) and had only been in office for a year or two.

As for Michigan, you may be right.

In regards to Maryland, Nixon only lost it by 1%, and since Nixon was perceived to be closer ideologically to Wallace than Humphrey was, I could see enough Wallace supporters swinging over to him to give MD to Nixon. In regards to Arkansas, even if it was a heavily Democratic state in 1968, most of the Democrats elected there were conservatives who opposed affiramtive action and large govt. spending (and formerly opposed civil rights). Those Democrats would be much closer ideologically to Nixon than to Humphrey, and thus I think enough Democrats in Arkansas would have crossed over to vote for Nixon, allowing him to win Arkansas.
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Derek
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« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2010, 11:28:18 pm »

http://

Hmm interesting thought. Nixon wins about 53-46. That's a tough PV to call.
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Speaker Perez
Alex A. Perez
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2010, 05:51:51 pm »

Humphrey narrowly defeats Nixon by 100,000- 500,000 votes. Wallace stole millions of blue collar votes, most of whom voted Democratic.



Most states that Wallace carried Humphrey came in second place so he would most likely carry those states. States such as Ohio, Missouri, and Illinois Humphrey lost because Wallace won more than 10 percent of the vote, Democratic votes.
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hawkeye59
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2010, 07:58:31 pm »

Humphrey narrowly defeats Nixon by 100,000- 500,000 votes. Wallace stole millions of blue collar votes, most of whom voted Democratic.



Most states that Wallace carried Humphrey came in second place so he would most likely carry those states. States such as Ohio, Missouri, and Illinois Humphrey lost because Wallace won more than 10 percent of the vote, Democratic votes.
lolwut
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2010, 12:28:57 am »

Humphrey probably picks up most of the south, but doesn't carry any more northern states (he might even lose Pennsylvannia).

I don't think Southerners would be very eager to vote for a Northern liberal who supports affirmative action and greater govt. spending.
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cpeeks
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2010, 02:21:42 pm »

W/e the father of the civil rights movement was not going to carry the south, Nixon beats him in a landslide just Goldwater beat Johnson.
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Dodger Blue
RosettaStoned
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« Reply #14 on: May 12, 2010, 02:28:05 am »

Nixon still wins, but by a larger margin.
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Dancing with Myself
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« Reply #15 on: May 12, 2010, 09:57:48 am »



Nixon-358

Humphrey-180
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Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
hantheguitarman
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« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2010, 05:04:42 pm »


I doubt that Humphrey, who said publicly that "the time has arrived in America for the Democratic Party to get out of the shadow of states' rights and walk forthrightly into the bright sunshine of human rights," would've carried MS or AL, especially when Nixon was already attempting to court Southerners with the Southern Strategy.
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cpeeks
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« Reply #17 on: May 17, 2010, 09:16:50 pm »

No he wouldnt have carried any southern states, he put the first civil rights plank in the democratic platform which caused the southern delegation to walk out and form the dixiecrats in 1948. HHH was hated in the south.
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Derek
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« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2010, 11:54:36 pm »

How the hell does Humphrey win in the south?
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #19 on: May 21, 2010, 12:24:14 am »

How the hell does Humphrey win in the south?

He doesn't.
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #20 on: September 06, 2010, 03:51:06 pm »



Nixon  399 EV (52% PV)
Humphrey  139 EV (47% PV)

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Dr. Cynic
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« Reply #21 on: September 06, 2010, 04:09:49 pm »



Nixon  399 EV (52% PV)
Humphrey  139 EV (47% PV)



At the least, HHH would've kept Washington.
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #22 on: September 06, 2010, 09:47:30 pm »
« Edited: September 06, 2010, 09:53:01 pm by Sasquatch »



Nixon  399 EV (52% PV)
Humphrey  139 EV (47% PV)



At the least, HHH would've kept Washington.
I just gave 2/3 of the Wallace vote to Nixon and the remaining 1/3 to Humphrey. Washington ended up going to Nixon by a few hundred votes.

Washington
Nixon - 50.10%
Humphrey - 49.69%
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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« Reply #23 on: September 07, 2010, 06:24:44 pm »

Well, with no Wallace one major question appears...with the South now "in play", would Humphrey select a southerner for the VP spot in hopes of appealing to traditional Democratic voters in Dixie?
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