It's based on a Quinnipac poll that showed a Bush lead, with a fairly small number of respondants, but it's still good news. Of the 16 percent of people in the Quinnipac poll who identified themselves as having already voted, John Kerry was winning by a 17 percentage point margin over President Bush. This is from NewsMax.com (damn that liberal right-wing media!) which does make a bigger deal of this than they probably should. From the article:
"Among 16 percent of Florida voters who said they had cast early ballots, Kerry received 56 percent of those compared to Bush's 39 percent.
Quinnipiac surveyed 1,268 Florida registered voters, including 944 who described themselves as likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points."
The Dem GOTV effort this year has at least managed to energize the base into early voting.
As the old saying goes, "vote early and voting often." I'm sure both parties will be doing both in Florida.
Source:
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/10/29/84842.shtml