May 4 primary election results thread (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio)

[Devilman88]

Hey guys, here's some maps.



Let me know if there are any errors. Ohio and NC will come soon.

Good job with the map. Can't wait for you NC maps to come out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OH-5 is actually R+9.

[RI]

Democratic Senate Primaries:


North Carolina:
Elaine Marshall
Cal Cunningham
Ken Lewis
Marcus Williams

Ohio:
Lee Fisher
Jennifer Brunner

[Franzl]

Is there any reason that Brunner is so strong in the Appalachian part? I always thought Fisher would be seen as somewhat more populist (kind of like Strickland).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Brunner's entire campaign was basically "The Democratic establishment is trying to block me! Power to the people!" With Fisher seen as the establishment candidate that seems like a likely result in that area in this environment.

[Badger]

Democratic Senate Primaries:


North Carolina:
Elaine Marshall
Cal Cunningham
Ken Lewis
Marcus Williams

Ohio:
Lee Fisher
Jennifer Brunner

Awesome!

Anyone wanna guess Marcus Williams' home county?

Where are you getting the Ohio county numbers from? The Sec. of State site has nothing up yet.

I'm still surprised Brunner did so well in most of Strickland's old district. Equally surprised she lost Franklin County.

Not sure why Brunner carried the one isolated central Ohio county (Knox). Strong appeal at Kenyon College maybe?

[RI]

Where are you getting the Ohio county numbers from? The Sec. of State site has nothing up yet.

It's from Politico's website.

[Franzl]

http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/Senate/2010/OH

[tmthforu94]

Hey guys, here's some maps.



Let me know if there are any errors. Ohio and NC will come soon.

Thanks for this. No real suprise here, given the results. Hostetller was limited to his former district. Stutzman performed well up North where he was from. He also had a good following in my area, and I'm very pleased that he won my county, Clay. In those pink counties in the middle, we had poll workers at almost every precint. I was quite suprised we won Marion county. I think Stutzman would have been dangerous in a run-off, but oh well.

Risk put up a strong showing in IN-08, and came dangerously close to upsetting Buschon. I believe she conceded today. Gotta give her credit, she went from a nobody to a somebody. Never would have guessed she would do this well 4 months ago.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

AP calls it for Fisher.

With less than half the vote in and him leading only 56-44, I'm guessing the uncounted votes are disproportionately from NE Ohio.

The 75 year old looking Protectionist versus the 50 year old looking economic wizard. I will take that fight, even in Ohio, any day, especially in this environment.

Bush's budget director and trade rep = economic wizard?

Again, I invite you to correct me by noting any substantial difference in economic policy between Portman and his former boss (and fellow economic wizard).

Portman doing so to Ohio voters would, incidentally, mean the difference between a close race and a relatively easy R hold. Fortunately I don't think he can. His key is to convince most voters the state's current economic problems were primarily caused in the last 15 months.

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He took it from Marshall. However Cunningham has been gaining the big mo if you will and this runoff may give him the time to get ahead. Runoffs in NC are much more complicated usually then "To whom does Lewis' votes go".

I agree, but that's certainly still a factor.

No, I would rather harass you about it then argue the merits.
 

You still cling to the irrational hysteria over Bush economics. A simple look at what Portman and Bush were seeking on trade at the DOHA round and other organizations was the reduction of tariffs and other trade barriers on us which would increase our exports and thus boast manufacturing.  All he has to do is point out this fact. And he could point to both his really short terms as Trade rep and OMB, less then a year each I beleive, as leaving do the frustration with entrenched power and the inability to get anything substantial either with foriegn countries due to inherit protectionism or Congress and the out of control spending/entitlements. 

Its called spin and I prefer mine to yours and I think mine will work. All he has to do his turn the anger and gov'ts inability to get things in his favor, promote his record of accomplishment and redefine his efforts as Trade Rep.

Maybe the specter of Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) is clouding your judgement. If Portman is smart and he is, he will not let Fisher define him as the guy that help Bush ship half of Ohio to China but as the guy that tried to even the playing field and give OH a fighting chance. Heck he could even paint Fisher as dissingenious in the process and label him as a partisan hack.

Anything could happen and this is all theoretical. But as I have time an again, Bob Latta beat a strong Protectionist candidate in OH-05 2007 special election with the economy slumping and Bush's approvals way down. That district is only R+5 I think. Ohio is what? R+1, R+2.

I don't think viewing Bush's economic and fiscal policies as a total clusterf#$k is either "hysterical" or "irrational". A large majority of Ohio voters would surely agree.

Regardless, your reasons for defending Portman are somewhat different than my reasons for scorning him. Your emphasis seems to be on differing views on trade policy relating to Portman's time as Trade Rep. FWIW my views on trade are probably somewhere between Portman's and Fisher's, and it's not that important an issue to me overall (though I agree Fisher will try bludgeoning Portman on the trade issue).

My distaste for Portman is based more on the god-awful fiscal and budget policies of Bush's he played a major role in implementing, and will undoubtedly continue to champion as senator if he wins
[/quote]

Most people may blame Bush for the economy but they haven't turned against Supply Side economics in fact, some have become more rigid supporters of it due to a perceived failure (where right or wrong) that Obamanomics is failing. I thought you were referring to his direct link to the Bush administration which out of 20 years in politics represents about 10%. Of that, I already explained why labeling as "He is the guy the let Bush ship the jobs out" isn't fair. His goal was actually to reduce that not by counterproductive protectionism but by leveling the playing field. As for OMB, put yourself in his shoes. His job was to balance the books. You have a President at 35% approval rating, a Democratic Congress, and little willingness by either parties to reform entitlements or cut spending. Hence why he left after just 11 months or so on the job. He didn't want to fight a losing battle that would potentially destroy him.

Its seems however that this is not what your problem was but his economic philosphy in general. However what does that have to do with whether Portman can successfully fight back against Fisher's economic naivety which what the polling thread discussion was about or even my comment about"  a 75 year old looking protectionism (When I use it to describe someone trust me its not a praise) versus a 50 year old looking Economic wizard"

Portman does have the experience on economics just like Daniels or Romney or any other. Portman's family were small/medium size business owners, he was on important House committees on these issues, and he has held those two positions of Trade Rep, and OMB meaning he knows the players, the issues and the reasons things are the way they are.

However, Portman is not a partisan, he is not Pat Toomey for instance. I even fear I will be despising him once he gets into office because he likes to compromise at times.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

OH-5 is actually R+9.

Has it been that all along or is that from 2008 alone. I seem to remember it being R+5 or R+6 back in 2007. I highly doubt it swung against Obama in this environement, but I do know what I read even three years ago.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

All of northwest Ohio swung heavily toward Obama.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

All of northwest Ohio swung heavily toward Obama.

Well then likely it was some idiot who didn't know what he was talking about at the time which is not much of a shock considering all the idiots out there. I don't remember who wrote it or in what though. Just remember reading the article.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Ken Lewis has endorsed (and accepted a campaign position for) Elaine Marshall.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/05/26/500523/ex-rival-lewis-joins-marshalls.html

[Lunar]

Ken Lewis has endorsed (and accepted a campaign position for) Elaine Marshall.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/05/26/500523/ex-rival-lewis-joins-marshalls.html

You mean "and is paid for"  ?