A projection based on RCP

[The Duke]

Based on Real Clear Politics averages (which I don't necessarily endorse) and the Washington Post's report yesterday that undecideds tend to break to Kerry right now by a ratio of 4-3, here is a projection of what the election will end up looking like.  This is RCP's averages, with the undecideds distributed to Kerry by a 4-3 ratio, and assuming 2% of voters vote for Nader, Badnirik, and other third aprties combined.

National Popular Vote
Bush       49.9%
Kerry      48.1%

Major Battlegorunds

Florida
Bush       49.8%
Kerry      48.3%

Pennsylvania
Kerry      51.5%
Bush      48.6%

Ohio
Kerry      50.2%
Bush      48.2%

Minnesota
Kerry      47.3%
Bush      47.0%

Wisconsin
Bush       48.8%
Kerry      48.7%

Iowa
Bush       49.5%
Kerry      48.8%

I am only including the numbers for the big three and the upper midwest because I hate math, and doind the other states would require said math.  The other states aren't that close anyway according to RCP, at least compared to these six.

That leaves us with the following electoral map and a Bush win of 276-262, with a PV win for Bush, but no PV majority.



This election will be closer than my hand is to my crotch when I watch Ashley Simpson lip sync.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Here's a good RCP projection

http://web.archive.org/web/20001110051000/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-EC_ALWAYS.html

[Gustaf]

Interesting, good work. Says a lot about the polarization if Kerry could do better in the EV than in the PV despite losing both. That's unusual.

[minionofmidas]

Could you do the numbers on NM and NH?

[The Duke]

New Mexico
Bush     50.2%
Kerry    47.6%

New Hampshire
Kerry     50.8%
Bush     47.5%

[minionofmidas]

Thanks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Uncertainty appears to be Certain

[Horus]

Bush wins Wisconsin by one a tenth of a percent. It's lookinng more and more like that state will decide the outcome.

[Nym90]

Bush wins Wisconsin by one a tenth of a percent. It's lookinng more and more like that state will decide the outcome.

Indeed, if this scenario plays out, a recount in Wisconsin would decide the election.

[Friar]

Is this the same real clear politics that predicted on Nov5 2000 that Gore is going to win7 states and 98 electoral votes and Bush will sweep all the other states?

[bullmoose88]

could someone compare the 4:3 break of undecideds to Kerry to past incumbent vs challenger presidential elections.

(I thought the ratio was much higher in say 88 or 92)

[AuH2O]

Actually that rule only applies to polls taken the day before the election and has not happened every time.

A difference of 1% nationally is really quite large, such that a slight and undetectable shift either way could move half a dozen states. But the PV winner will win the EC. I feel confident about that.

[ilikeverin]

Well, what would you know, that's exactly the same as my map

(well, maybe not the percentages, but oh well)

[dougrhess]

Bush wins Wisconsin by one a tenth of a percent. It's lookinng more and more like that state will decide the outcome.

Indeed, if this scenario plays out, a recount in Wisconsin would decide the election.

Yep. I've been thinking Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Wisconsin for a long time now. Fortunately, my parents moved there for retirement, so I have a little bit of contact, but no certainty.

[dougrhess]

That link that was provided on RCP's predition in 2000, here it is again, is really funny. Look how cocky the writer is:
http://web.archive.org/web/20001110051000/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-EC_ALWAYS.html

Math ain't destiny.

[J. J.]

You better add MI to your mantra.  PA is also weaker that it should be.