Final UK 2010 Poll

[big bad fab]

1. Conservative

2. Conservatives 38, Labour 29, LibDems 27
(we need to be bold now, not just adding 1 point or 2 to polls: it's useless, guys !)

3. Conservative majority of about 10-15 seats

[RodPresident]

1. Liberal Democrat
2. Tory 35%, LibDem 32% and Labour 25%
3. Gordon Brown resigns and electoral reform happens with a coalition Lib-Lab in a caretaker cabinet with one of Milliband brothers as new Labour leader. Next year, new election with Clegg as PM in a Lib-Lab pact.

[redcommander]

1) Conservatives
2) Conservatives 37% LibDems 28% Labour 23%
3) Conservative Majority of about 20, with a possible governing coalition with smaller parties (Not the Lib Dems though.)

[KuntaKinte]

1) Labour

2) Something like Conservatives 35, Labour 28, Libdem, 28.

3) Tory minority gouvernment, and snap elections within a year. No electoral reform.

[minionofmidas]

1. What party are you supporting?
Cooperative

2. What do you think will be the popular vote outcome?
Tories well ahead. Labour barely ahead of LDs.

3. What do you think will be the outcome in Parliament (i.e., who will end up with how many seats, a majority of how many seats, what happens in a hung parliament, who becomes the next prime minister, etc.)?
Tories round about 320 seats.

[Gustaf]

1. Conservatives
2. Like most people I expect a clear Conservative margin. My hunch is Labour takes second place over LibDems though.
3. This is the really tough question. I expect the Tories to have the the plurality but fall short of a majority, by 10-50 seats.

I think the Tories will be able to take control without much in the way of concessions, until Brown gets kicked out. Once that has happened Labour might be back in the parliamentary game again and we might see a new election.

The problem is that Tories can't really grant PR since it would doom their chances of winning.

[mileslunn]

1.  Conservative.  Although I like the Liberal Democrats platform and want them to win someday, I think letting a party that few expected to win, win is a bit risky.  Here in Ontario the NDP unexpectedly won in 1990 and ended up being a disaster, so better to let them do really well and then next time around they will be better prepared to win.  Labour Party needs to go and the Conservatives under David Cameron are not all that right wing especially when compared to the Republicans in the US.

2.  35% Conservative, 29% Liberal Democrats, 27% Labour Party.

3.  A hung parliament with the Conservatives winning the most seats, Labour Party coming in second and Liberal Democrats in third in terms of seats.  The Conservatives will be about 40 seats shy of a majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1. I will be voting for the Labour Party.

2. Labour will almost certainly be in the high twenties and the Conservatives will poll over 30%. Beyond that... you know, I don't actually know.

3. The most likely outcome (by far) is Tory, Labour, LibDem. In that order. I had for a long time expected a narrow (but workable) majority for the Tories, but the apparent movement of swing voters to the LibDems has thrown confusion on everything. What happens in a hung parliament depends on how well hung that parliament is, but you should all note that the constitution and structure of the Labour Party (it is essentially an associational society than runs candidates in elections and not a political party in the sense that the other parties, big and small, are. In other words, The Rules matter a lot) could wreck quite a few schemes. I expect David Cameron to be the next Prime Minister, though I'm not looking forward to the prospect.

[Хahar 🤔]

Please do explain The Rules, Al.

[Deldem]

1. Lib-Dem
2. Tories at around 35, Lib-Dems and Labour just below 30.
3. Tory hung Parliament, Cameron as PM. Don't know whether they'll get a coalition with the Lib-Dems- I imagine that if some sort of proportional scheme doesn't work out, then the coalition won't happen, or the Lib-Dems might do something with Labour.

[CatoMinor]

1. Scottish National Party and Sinn Fein

2. Torries 34%, Lib Dems 29%, Labour 27%. other 10%

3. Hung Parliament with largest party being the Torries followed by the Lib-Dems and Labour.

[Хahar 🤔]

Sinn Fein

You may be the only supporter of Sinn Féin on the forum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please do explain The Rules, Al.

That would take far too long

But what I was thinking of (mostly, anyway) is the rules for electing a Leader. The process takes quite a while.

[Хahar 🤔]

Well, then, explain that part of The Rules.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, then, explain that part of The Rules.

The essential point is that once a vacancy is announced, the process for replacing the Leader begins pretty much automatically; the NEC has to meet to decide a timetable, after which nominations have to be completed, while a fairly long period between nominations and the Special Conference is needed because fo the way the voting works. Which means that any party that wants to deal with Labour but not Labour led by Brown would have to wait for quite a while for a new Leader to be elected with no way of being sure that the new Leader is someone they'd like to work with.
I'm pretty sure that a coalition might also have to be approved through formal procedures, though I'm not entirely sure about that.

[DL]

1. What party are you supporting?

That is hard to say. I'm Canadian and I support the NDP in Canada. At one time I would have said Labour without hesitation - but these days, the Lib Dems seem to the left of Labour and seem more and more like the British equivalent of the NDP - plus i like the precedent of perennial third party making huge gains. I think i would vote very strategically and would vote Labour of i was in a Labour/Tory marginal, I would vote LD if i was in a Tory/LD marginal and if I was in a Labour/LD marginal I'd have to look at the local candidates.

2. What do you think will be the popular vote outcome?

I'm going to guess Tories 34% and Labour and LibDems 28% each

3. What do you think will be the outcome in Parliament (i.e., who will end up with how many seats, a majority of how many seats, what happens in a hung parliament, who becomes the next prime minister, etc.)?

I have a hunch that the Tories will have the most seats and that there will be a Canadian style Tory minority government that may last longer than people expect because no one will want to pull the plug!

[KuntaKinte]

Sinn Fein

You may be the only supporter of Sinn Féin on the forum.

Sinn Fein would be my first choice in Northern Ireland too.

[You kip if you want to...]

Sinn Fein

You may be the only supporter of Sinn Féin on the forum.

Sinn Fein would be my first choice in Northern Ireland too.

...So the IRA party?

[KuntaKinte]

Sinn Fein

You may be the only supporter of Sinn Féin on the forum.

Sinn Fein would be my first choice in Northern Ireland too.

...So the IRA party?

The party of the Good Friday Agreement.
And yeah, I know about their past.

[Хahar 🤔]

At one time I would have said Labour without hesitation - but these days, the Lib Dems seem to the left of Labour and seem more and more like the British equivalent of the NDP

`

They're closer to the old PCs than to the NDP (though, of course, they are the equivalent of the Grits).

[Boris]

1. What party are you supporting?

Don't care, but the better Lib Dems do, the more fun this is for all of us. 

2. What do you think will be the popular vote outcome?

Something like 35-29-28-8 (Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, other respectively)

3. What do you think will be the outcome in Parliament (i.e., who will end up with how many seats, a majority of how many seats, what happens in a hung parliament, who becomes the next prime minister, etc.)?

Conservative minority government, and we get to do this all over again in 2012 (hopefully they sync it with the US election a la Canada 2008)

[President Mitt]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Labour Party

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Tory plurality, with Labour barely inching past the Liberal Dems.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Tory Minority Government

[King]

1. Liberal Dems, as the perennial underdog

2. Conservative plurality, Labour in 3rd

3. Cameron, but I think mutual disdain of Gordon Brown will lead to lot of backroom concessions being made in Clegg's favor