VP Biden predicts up to 500K jobs in each of the "coming months"

[Tender Branson]

Biden forecasts growth of up to 500,000 new jobs a month

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Vice President Biden predicted Friday that the U.S. economy would be adding up to 500,000 jobs each month "some time in the next couple of months."

Biden said he "got in trouble" for his prediction last month of job growth. "Even some in the White House said, 'Hey, don't get ahead of yourself,' " he said at a Pennsylvania fundraiser, according to a pool report. "Well, I'm here to tell you, some time in the next couple of months, we're going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month.

"We caught a lot of bad breaks on the way down," Biden added. "We're going to catch a few good breaks because of good planning on the way up."

Most forecasters had expected about 200,000 jobs to be created in March. Instead, 162,000 jobs were created on non-farm payrolls -- the biggest one-month gain in three years but below what economists were predicting.

The difference was largely attributable to fewer people than expected being hired by the government as census workers. But analysts said the numbers also illustrated the slow and wobbly nature of the ongoing economic recovery. A prediction of 500,000 jobs a month would be considered optimistic.

Biden was in Pittsburgh for a brunch fundraiser on behalf of U.S. House candidate Mark Critz, who was an aide to Rep. John P. Murtha and is seeking to win the late lawmaker's seat in a May special election.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/23/AR2010042305165.html

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

We certainly won't get 500k in months where the Census is laying off a lot of people.

[Bo]

Way too optimistic of a scenario. Biden should remain quiet on these matters.

[Beet]

There's a good chance for some pretty high numbers. I don't know 500k, but decent.

[phk]

Maybe. I could see 350k at the absolute max optimistic scenario though.

It would be great if we could replicate the Spring 2004 situation.

[Torie]

Why would anyone take seriously what Biden says about economic forecasting? Just asking.

[CultureKing]

If the country averaged 250k jobs added each month from now to November what would the possible effect be on the election? Or would there even be much of an effect?
Perhaps 1-2% better for the dems than currently? (Which would still lead to major losses, which seem to be inevitable).

[phk]

If the country averaged 250k jobs added each month from now to November what would the possible effect be on the election? Or would there even be much of an effect?
Perhaps 1-2% better for the dems than currently? (Which would still lead to major losses, which seem to be inevitable).

Well from October 1993 to October 1994 (the 12 month period prior to the 1994 midterms), approx 4 million jobs were created.

[CultureKing]

If the country averaged 250k jobs added each month from now to November what would the possible effect be on the election? Or would there even be much of an effect?
Perhaps 1-2% better for the dems than currently? (Which would still lead to major losses, which seem to be inevitable).

Well from October 1993 to October 1994 (the 12 month period prior to the 1994 midterms), approx 4 million jobs were created.

True, but that was also in the context of democrats failing legislatively with their health care proposals.

[phk]

If the country averaged 250k jobs added each month from now to November what would the possible effect be on the election? Or would there even be much of an effect?
Perhaps 1-2% better for the dems than currently? (Which would still lead to major losses, which seem to be inevitable).

Well from October 1993 to October 1994 (the 12 month period prior to the 1994 midterms), approx 4 million jobs were created.

True, but that was also in the context of democrats failing legislatively with their health care proposals.

Good points all around. From what I recall of the 1990s, people didn't start associating economic conditions with Bill Clinton till after he left office mostly.

[Sewer]

Why would anyone take seriously what Biden says about economic forecasting? Just asking.

The man does not lie.

[Torie]

Why would anyone take seriously what Biden says about economic forecasting? Just asking.

The man does not lie.

Sure, he may actually believe what comes out of his mouth. So?

[Bo]

If the country averaged 250k jobs added each month from now to November what would the possible effect be on the election? Or would there even be much of an effect?
Perhaps 1-2% better for the dems than currently? (Which would still lead to major losses, which seem to be inevitable).

It might make the situation slightly better for the Dems. However, since the unemployment % will remain very high for at least several months (in the 9.5 to 10.0% range, most likely), many people will not notice the improving economy until after the elections.

[opebo]

Why would anyone take seriously what Biden says about economic forecasting? Just asking.

The man does not lie.

Sure, he may actually believe what comes out of his mouth. So?

The point isn't whether it is true or not, but the drumbeat of positivity.  Even if 500K aren't created in each month, a very large number will be created, and the V-shaped recovery needs to be trumpeted to the populace.  They may be dumb, but they do have some contact with the real economic world, and even if the exact numbers aren't such-and-so, the basic message - 'damn, things are picking up' is going to get out.  And hearing home truths from a man like Biden, is, well, better than probably anyone else up there.

[Gustaf]

What's the US annual population growth? If it is 2% (which I think is roughly correct) you need to add 500 000 jobs every month just to keep employment levels unchanged.

[phk]

What's the US annual population growth? If it is 2% (which I think is roughly correct) you need to add 500 000 jobs every month just to keep employment levels unchanged.

0.915%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What's the US annual population growth? If it is 2% (which I think is roughly correct) you need to add 500 000 jobs every month just to keep employment levels unchanged.

0.915%

Also, you don't need jobs for those not in the labor pool. So the numbers are more in the ballpark of 150,000 a month.

[Derek]

Way too optimistic of a scenario. Biden should remain quiet on these matters.

Biden needs to keep quiet on alot of matters. Anyone remember "stand up Chuck?" The only job openings I know of that are coming are his and Obama's in 2012.

[cinyc]

Why would anyone take seriously what Biden says about economic forecasting? Just asking.

Because he's the Vice President of the United States, and people believe what he says, even if he's an idiot?

[Derek]

What's the US annual population growth? If it is 2% (which I think is roughly correct) you need to add 500 000 jobs every month just to keep employment levels unchanged.

0.915%

Very good point! Adding 100,000 new jobs a month is nothing to brag about in this case.

[Tender Branson]

This report says that the bulk of Census hiring will be reported with the May report in the first week of June, when the Government will report about 310.000 people hired for the Census in May. Couple that with about 100.000 private sector jobs and then you are not far away from the 500.000 jobs Biedn predicted. Let´s see what of this becomes reality.

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/may2010/pi2010054_405520.htm

[opebo]

Way too optimistic of a scenario. Biden should remain quiet on these matters.

Biden needs to keep quiet on alot of matters..

Actually no, Biden is an excellent voice for the administration.  He should be used a lot more, as he is likable to the simpleminded voters who are apt to stray to the GOP.  He's not only an excellent chap in every respect, he's salt-of-the-earth, which the common white working class voters like better than the egghead black who is president.

[Torie]

Why would anyone take seriously what Biden says about economic forecasting? Just asking.

Because he's the Vice President of the United States, and people believe what he says, even if he's an idiot?

It is odd Obama allows Biden to yip like this, given that I doubt many think his opinion on microeconomics is worth much. It just isn't in his skill set. It would be akin to me opining about the meaning of the Bible. One would think Obama would prefer someone with more credibility in his administration on this topic to so predict and explain why.