Mason-Dixon says Kerry +5, Gregoire +5, Murray +14 in WA

[Sam Spade]

I think that now I'm only going to start posting Mason-Dixon polls and a couple of other I trust on state polls because man, most of these state polls are looking looney of late.

Topline numbers:
Kerry 50, Bush 45

Gov. race:
Gregoire 48, Rossi 43

Senate race:
Murray 53, Nethercutt 39

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/197137_govsenate28.html

[Alcon]

The Presidential race results are closer than other pollsters have shown, but only by one or two points. WA has been solid all this year. Go us.

The governor race was tighter in another recent poll, as was the senate race. Good results.

Too bad Mason-Dixon isn't doing battlegrounds.

[agcatter]

Like almost all MD polls, this one looks dead on.

[Sam Spade]

Yep, I really wish they'd do Florida and Ohio.  

The polls we've been getting out of there of late have been so bad, that I'm not even very sure we have any idea what's happening there right now. (my guesses are better on Florida than Ohio)

I'd also like to hear from them out of Minnesota and New Mexico.  Especially in Minnesota, their record has been extremely good in these two states of late.

[The Vorlon]

Washington has been locked in stone this whole cycle. 

It has been Kerry +5 or 6 or so the whole way, it has never really moved at all either way.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Washington has been locked in stone this whole cycle. 

It has been Kerry +5 or 6 or so the whole way, it has never really moved at all either way.

and yet AuH2O and Philip are so sure Bush will win it!

[AuH2O]

Washington has been locked in stone this whole cycle. 

It has been Kerry +5 or 6 or so the whole way, it has never really moved at all either way.

and yet AuH2O and Philip are so sure Bush will win it!

I hope making up stories about my predictions will comfort you on November 2nd, because I do know that the results won't...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You said once in a thread where someone was asking why Washington was considered a swing state "This will be a fun one to bring back WHEN Bush wins Washington." You also admitted you bet money on it in TradeSports.

[AuH2O]

You said once in a thread where someone was asking why Washington was considered a swing state "This will be a fun one to bring back WHEN Bush wins Washington." You also admitted you bet money on it in TradeSports.

Let me make sure I understand your position: once someone makes a prediction at any time, no matter how long before the election, they cannot change it.

That is your view, correct?

Such that, any prediction you have ever made, if it turned out to be wrong, is equally wrong with my original Washington prediction.



p.s. I took my money out of leaning Dem states once Bush flubbed the debate, and reinvested in Iowa and NM. When I got them, Bush was an underdog. Now he's favored in both places.

[Light Touch]

I just figured out what "AuH2O" stands for.

Consider me slow.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's just the "when" that makes me bash you over it. You were so sure, so it's fun that you were wrong. Now as for Philip, he deserves much more crap because he STILL thinks Bush will win it.

And I'm guessing that you still lost about half of what you originally invested in Washington, just a guess judging from the graph.

[AuH2O]

Yeah it wasn't very pleasant.

In hindsight, it was a bad decision, even though at Bush +6-7 the state would be fairly close. It's the first time I've bet on elections, so I'll give myself a little slack, but I'm not pleased with my errors.

Thankfully people make some dumb bets on tradesports, so I should still do OK for myself-- even if Bush loses.