WA-SurveyUSA: Rossi (R) defeats Sen. Murray (D) by 10

[Tender Branson]

All the other matchups are a statistical tie, as they fall within the margin of error of ±4.4 percent:

Murray vs. Benton

    * Murray: 46 percent
    * Benton: 44 percent
    * Undecided: 10 percent

Murray vs. Didier

    * Murray: 46 percent
    * Didier: 44 percent
    * Undecided: 10 percent

Murray vs. Widener

    * Murray: 45 percent
    * Widener: 43 percent
    * Undecided: 12 percent

Murray vs. Akers

    * Murray: 45 percent
    * Akers: 44 percent
    * Undecided: 11 percent

Murray vs. Coday

    * Murray: 45 percent
    * Coday: 41 percent
    * Undecided: 14 percent

http://www.king5.com/news/politics/Poll-Murray-would-lose-to-Rossi-neither-side-buying-it-91939209.html

[SvenssonRS]

I've said it before and I say it again - Murray has to be the weakest Democrat incumbent running for reelection. I mean, seriously, if a poll other than Rasmussen has her being crushed by a well-known candidate and within two points of defeat at the hands of a no-name, in a highly liberal state, then there is something definitively wrong.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm. This and the New Jersey poll are somewhat strange ...

But it still could be true. It´s by SUSA, one of the best pollsters in recent elections and there could be a great anti-incumbent mood right now in the US.

[redcommander]

I hope Rossi decides to run.

[bgwah]

lolz, I'll believe it when I see it.

From the article:

However, both Rossi and the Murray camp agree that these numbers don't seem right to them. Rossi says the internal and public polling shows Murray has the advantage. A Murray spokesperson says their numbers show the race closer to a dead heat.



But yeah, SUSA is simultaneously showing Washingtonians approving an income tax by 40 points (and Republicans approving by 19...), and voting Rossi by 10? Including winning metro Seattle? Mmm, they've been releasing some very strange stuff for Washington.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

lolz, I'll believe it when I see it.

From the article:

However, both Rossi and the Murray camp agree that these numbers don't seem right to them. Rossi says the internal and public polling shows Murray has the advantage. A Murray spokesperson says their numbers show the race closer to a dead heat.



But yeah, SUSA is simultaneously showing Washingtonians approving an income tax by 40 points (and Republicans approving by 19...), and voting Rossi by 10? Including winning metro Seattle? Mmm, they've been releasing some very strange stuff for Washington.

SUSA's internals are always screwed up, but their toplines tend to be solid. This does seem to be a bit of an outlier, though, especially if both sides actually agree where their internal polling is. They occasionally have a ridiculously-off poll months away from the election (there was one in the summer of 08 that showed Goode beating Perriello by something like 30 points, and we saw how that one ended up). Hard to say if this is one, though.

[Rowan]

Who entered this poll into the database and why did they include the matchup against Coday?

[Torie]

The poll may be crummy, but that said, this poll and others suggesting potentially close races  involving an incumbent Dem which should not be close, suggests that perhaps some sort of wave is indeed building if the GOP can round up quality candidates.

[Meeker]

Hopefully this will inspire Rossi to run and then receive the third beating that he so deserves.

[Tender Branson]

Who entered this poll into the database and why did they include the matchup against Coday?

Olawakandi, but I agree that he should change it to Murray vs. Akers, because Rossi is not in the race yet.

[Rowan]

Who entered this poll into the database and why did they include the matchup against Coday?

Olawakandi, but I agree that he should change it to Murray vs. Akers, because Rossi is not in the race yet.

I was actually thinking Benton is the frontrunner on the GOP side for now.

[Tender Branson]

Who entered this poll into the database and why did they include the matchup against Coday?

Olawakandi, but I agree that he should change it to Murray vs. Akers, because Rossi is not in the race yet.

I was actually thinking Benton is the frontrunner on the GOP side for now.

Do you have any primary poll ? Otherwise I´d say we should enter the Republican who`s closest to Murray and that would be Akers.

[Meeker]

Benton is the clear frontrunner IMO.

[Meeker]

(Repost from Washington '10 thread)

Republican Senate candidate Chris Widener, who lives next door to Dino Rossi, mysteriously dropped out of the race today only two days after attending a primary debate.

[tmthforu94]

Who entered this poll into the database and why did they include the matchup against Coday?

Olawakandi, but I agree that he should change it to Murray vs. Akers, because Rossi is not in the race yet.

This has to stop. Olawakandi is being a liberal hack and is entering in the matchup that looks best for their party.

[CultureKing]

Am I crazy if I think that this poll is a one in 20? It simply doesn't feel right, Rossi is basically at the peak of his ceiling in this poll and I feel like Murray would not struggle so badly against so many unknowns (which you think would have higher undecideds).

[Tender Branson]

Am I crazy if I think that this poll is a one in 20? It simply doesn't feel right, Rossi is basically at the peak of his ceiling in this poll and I feel like Murray would not struggle so badly against so many unknowns (which you think would have higher undecideds).

If Independents vote like they did in Massachusetts, New Jersey or Virginia (which they do according to this poll) then this poll might not be as wrong as you people think ...

[CultureKing]

Am I crazy if I think that this poll is a one in 20? It simply doesn't feel right, Rossi is basically at the peak of his ceiling in this poll and I feel like Murray would not struggle so badly against so many unknowns (which you think would have higher undecideds).

If Independents vote like they did in Massachusetts, New Jersey or Virginia (which they do according to this poll) then this poll might not be as wrong as you people think ...

No! I refuse to accept that my state would follow the same pattern as the nation as a whole and do anything contrary to what I believe should occur.

[redcommander]

Am I crazy if I think that this poll is a one in 20? It simply doesn't feel right, Rossi is basically at the peak of his ceiling in this poll and I feel like Murray would not struggle so badly against so many unknowns (which you think would have higher undecideds).

If Independents vote like they did in Massachusetts, New Jersey or Virginia (which they do according to this poll) then this poll might not be as wrong as you people think ...

No! I refuse to accept that my state would follow the same pattern as the nation as a whole and do anything contrary to what I believe should occur.

FYI You're state isn't that liberal. The only reason why Republicans have such trouble winning statewide races is because the Democrats rack up huge margins in King County.

[Torie]

Am I crazy if I think that this poll is a one in 20? It simply doesn't feel right, Rossi is basically at the peak of his ceiling in this poll and I feel like Murray would not struggle so badly against so many unknowns (which you think would have higher undecideds).

If Independents vote like they did in Massachusetts, New Jersey or Virginia (which they do according to this poll) then this poll might not be as wrong as you people think ...

No! I refuse to accept that my state would follow the same pattern as the nation as a whole and do anything contrary to what I believe should occur.

FYI You're state isn't that liberal. The only reason why Republicans have such trouble winning statewide races is because the Democrats rack up huge margins in King County.

Isn't that sort of like saying that Illinois isn't that liberal, and  the only reason Republicans have trouble winning the state is that Cook County happens to be located in it?  I mean we have all these counties I guess that "distort" a state's "true" nature, like Multnomah County in Oregon, and Philadelphia County in PA, and Cuyahoga County in Ohio, and Essex County in NJ, and so on? 

[CultureKing]

Am I crazy if I think that this poll is a one in 20? It simply doesn't feel right, Rossi is basically at the peak of his ceiling in this poll and I feel like Murray would not struggle so badly against so many unknowns (which you think would have higher undecideds).

If Independents vote like they did in Massachusetts, New Jersey or Virginia (which they do according to this poll) then this poll might not be as wrong as you people think ...

No! I refuse to accept that my state would follow the same pattern as the nation as a whole and do anything contrary to what I believe should occur.

FYI You're state isn't that liberal. The only reason why Republicans have such trouble winning statewide races is because the Democrats rack up huge margins in King County.

Isn't that sort of like saying that Illinois isn't that liberal, and  the only reason Republicans have trouble winning the state is that Cook County happens to be located in it?  I mean we have all these counties I guess that "distort" a state's "true" nature, like Multnomah County in Oregon, and Philadelphia County in PA, and Cuyahoga County in Ohio, and Essex County in NJ, and so on? 

I don't know, I do agree to a point that Washington isn't very liberal. My point is that the state is simply extremely polarized, to the point that it has become nearly impossible for the republican candidate to win on the state-wide level (especially for major offices), while there may only be a natural 45-55 split it has become entrenched enough that republicans have had an extremely difficult time reaching across the spectrum. Adding to this difficulty for republicans in the state is the fact that the Seattle suburbs which used to moderate King county have been trending towards the democrats for the last decade or more.

Meanwhile the state Republican party because of its loss of influence on the West side has become more dominated by Eastern Washington Republicans which resemble in many ways the republicans of Idaho, destroying many of their chances to reclaim momentum because things have just turned into a feedback loop. Though national climate of course could temporarily reverse this trend, or the Republicans could if they became the moderate breed of the NE Republicans.

[Хahar 🤔]

lol poll

[Torie]

In more secular more cosmopolitan states, the GOP needs more David Cameron types, and it has next to none, due to issue and cultural divisions that split US politics these days. The GOP only gets in the hunt when the Dems over reach. The problem is that in these states, the GOP needs to win over secular voters with more "relaxed" social views who are moderate to right of center on economic issues, and absent a lot of angst, they don't.

[CultureKing]

In more secular more cosmopolitan states, the GOP needs more David Cameron types, and it has next to none, due to issue and cultural divisions that split US politics these days. The GOP only gets in the hunt when the Dems over reach. The problem is that in these states, the GOP needs to win over secular voters with more "relaxed" social views who are moderate to right of center on economic issues, and absent a lot of angst, they don't.

Exactly, in the less religious states the party needs to become social centrists with right of center economic values. That or simply not talk about social issues. In terms of over reaching I have the feeling that the dems may be doing so simply by being in power for so long (the last Republican governor was around 25 years ago). Though honestly Washington democrats have in many ways been clever in not reaching too far and self-moderating themselves in order to try the big-tent approach.

[Vepres]

In more secular more cosmopolitan states, the GOP needs more David Cameron types, and it has next to none, due to issue and cultural divisions that split US politics these days. The GOP only gets in the hunt when the Dems over reach. The problem is that in these states, the GOP needs to win over secular voters with more "relaxed" social views who are moderate to right of center on economic issues, and absent a lot of angst, they don't.

Exactly, in the less religious states the party needs to become social centrists with right of center economic values. That or simply not talk about social issues. In terms of over reaching I have the feeling that the dems may be doing so simply by being in power for so long (the last Republican governor was around 25 years ago). Though honestly Washington democrats have in many ways been clever in not reaching too far and self-moderating themselves in order to try the big-tent approach.

It seems to me they need to find a Scott Brown or Olympia Snowe to type, but it doesn't sound like there any, correct?