ARG March poll has Kerry leading Bush 48-42

[HoopsCubs]

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/

48 Kerry
42 Bush
  2 Nader

Without Nader in the race:

50 Kerry (48 in Feb. poll)
43 Bush  (46 in Feb. poll)

Long, long way to go, but still, very interesting.

[California Dreamer]

Since March 1st, there have been at least 9 national polls by reasonably respectable organizations on the Bush/Kerry race, showing anything from Bush being up 2% to Kerry being up 11%...

you should distinguish which of those polls include Nader and which dont, otherwise it is comparing apples to oranges.

[California Dreamer]

yes but the premise of your post is that currently the polls are showing a dead heat, when if you look at all the polls and especially focus on likely voters there is clearly a current Kerry lead right now. I am not saying that this will last until the election, but right now Kerry has the edge.

[Gustaf]

yes but the premise of your post is that currently the polls are showing a dead heat, when if you look at all the polls and especially focus on likely voters there is clearly a current Kerry lead right now. I am not saying that this will last until the election, but right now Kerry has the edge.

Actually, there was no "premise" of any kind...

I provide links to 5 major polls that show the race between even and Bush +2, 1 link that Showed Kerry at +3, and three links that show Kerry +6 to +11

There was no "conclusion" or indeed even a comment, of any kind...  Please point to the part of my post that suggested a premise of some kind....

The ARG (and NPR?) poll, BTW, were Registered, as opposed to likely voters, and the GOP candidate typically (but certainly not always) does 4 points or so better among Likely voters than registered voters.

The actual explanation of the group of 5 polls showing a dead heat, while the other group of 4 polls showing a mid/high single digit lead for Kerry is actually rather simple.

The five polls showing a dead heat all invoke some variation of a constained turnout model, while the other four which show a Kerry lead do not.  

The unconstrained turnout models used by the 4 pro-Kerry polls naturally reflects an energized Democratic base that has just nominated it's candidate and enjoyed the limelight for several months now...

For what little it's worth, I think Kerry is a few points up on Bush right now, however I also think Bush's base support is a lot firmer than Kerry's. (I think my prediction map has a very modest Kerry leads at this point if you count the leaning states)

 The next 6 weeks or so will be critical to see if Kerry can solidify his leaners, or if Bush can pry them loose...

The NPR poll was likely voters, 'all participants were registered voters, who voted or were ineligible to vote in the 2000 presidential election or voted in the 2002 Congressional elections and indicated that they were 'certain' or 'almost certain' to vote in 2004'.

[Gustaf]

yes but the premise of your post is that currently the polls are showing a dead heat, when if you look at all the polls and especially focus on likely voters there is clearly a current Kerry lead right now. I am not saying that this will last until the election, but right now Kerry has the edge.

Actually, there was no "premise" of any kind...

I provide links to 5 major polls that show the race between even and Bush +2, 1 link that Showed Kerry at +3, and three links that show Kerry +6 to +11

There was no "conclusion" or indeed even a comment, of any kind...  Please point to the part of my post that suggested a premise of some kind....

The ARG (and NPR?) poll, BTW, were Registered, as opposed to likely voters, and the GOP candidate typically (but certainly not always) does 4 points or so better among Likely voters than registered voters.

The actual explanation of the group of 5 polls showing a dead heat, while the other group of 4 polls showing a mid/high single digit lead for Kerry is actually rather simple.

The five polls showing a dead heat all invoke some variation of a constained turnout model, while the other four which show a Kerry lead do not.  

The unconstrained turnout models used by the 4 pro-Kerry polls naturally reflects an energized Democratic base that has just nominated it's candidate and enjoyed the limelight for several months now...

For what little it's worth, I think Kerry is a few points up on Bush right now, however I also think Bush's base support is a lot firmer than Kerry's. (I think my prediction map has a very modest Kerry leads at this point if you count the leaning states)

 The next 6 weeks or so will be critical to see if Kerry can solidify his leaners, or if Bush can pry them loose...

The NPR poll was likely voters, 'all participants were registered voters, who voted or were ineligible to vote in the 2000 presidential election or voted in the 2002 Congressional elections and indicated that they were 'certain' or 'almost certain' to vote in 2004'.

Thank-you - I have not looked at the NPR poll in any detail yet.

I devoted an entire thread for it...you could look at that one for some of the stats I found interesting.

[12th Doctor]

The Fox/Oppinion Dynamics polls are done weekly and since late February they have consistantly show the race as a Bush Kerry tie.  Before you go trashng these polls because they are from Fox, you should note that they have accuratly predicted the outcome of every primary contest since Iowa and haven't been off by more than 1.5% for ANY candidate in any of the primaries.

[12th Doctor]

WOW tha USAToday/CNN/Gallup poll is showing totally different results from many of the other polls I've seen.  Kerry 'solid support is not nearly so high in ANY poll I've seen.  Most of the polls I've seen have Bush's solid support well above Kerry's.

[12th Doctor]

Has anyone seen any recent polls from Ohio?

P.S.    Or Minnesota?

[zachman]

We're going to have to wait, for these polls. Has anyone seen an Ohio poll?

[agcatter]

No Ohio polls as of yet.

[12th Doctor]

Has anyone seen any recent polls from Ohio?

PS Or Minnesota?

PS...?

Pennsylvania has a poll - Kerry +2

PS as in 'Post Script'

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Last time I checked Kerry had a small lead in Minnesota:

Kerry 43%
Bush  41%
Mason Dixon

[Ben.]

Last time I checked Kerry had a small lead in Minnesota:

Kerry 43%
Bush  41%
Mason Dixon

When was the poll taken...MN a funny one IMHO...both Reps got in in 2002 thanks to liberal indendent runs however i recon while Coleman wont be long for this earth the GOP gov seems to be doing ok...any one from MN got any views on these guys?
 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Couple of months back

[Ben.]

Well if it was before Kerry became the presumtive nominee then I would imagine his support will have gone up scince then...having said that I've repeatedly said that the Dem will win PA farily comfortably...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To be honest I'm more worried about Maine-2nd, Iowa and Wisconsin than Minnesota... and even more worried about Oregon.

I've given up on New Mexico... and have doubts about New Jersey...

[GOPhound]

You know I had always written off PA for Bush in November.  But after seeing these polls which have it within the margin of error I think the state is in play.

After the pounding he's taken during the Dem primaries I would have expected him to be further behind.  Basically it's tied and Bush has just begun his campaign.  From what I understand it's basically a conservative state with Pittsburgh & Philly being heavy Dem areas.

If I had a gun to my head and had to pick I'd say Bush wins it in November.  

[Gustaf]

Has anyone seen any recent polls from Ohio?

PS Or Minnesota?

PS...?

Pennsylvania has a poll - Kerry +2

PS as in 'Post Script'

Oh, I thought it was PS as in Post Scriptum.

[agcatter]

No Al, I wouldn't worry about Oregon.  Kerry has a built in reservoir of Nader voters from which to draw on there.  Maine 2nd is something to consider however.  Iowa and Wisconsin maybe, but would lean Kerry I think. Minn would be very uphill for Bush I think.

[Ben.]

 

To be honest I'm more worried about Maine-2nd, Iowa and Wisconsin than Minnesota... and even more worried about Oregon.

I've given up on New Mexico... and have doubts about New Jersey...

I'm much more worried about Iowa and Minnesota as well as New Mexico than WI and PA... however I recon that MN will remain in the Dem column come November party because of the large part liberal independent candidates played in making the 2000 contest so close in the state and acting as spoilers for the Dems in 2002 in both the governorship and Senate elections...Iowa seems to be tending to the right however it will be as close as in 2000 however I would give the edge to Bush, In New Mexico I think that Bush's courting of the Hispanic vote will pay off and he'll take the state by a slim margin....Wisconsin I just don’t see going for Bush, the state's congressional delegation and state government is overwhelmingly Democratic, in 2000 Nader got 4% in the state add that to Gore's total and you have a slim but not very slim win for the Dems and I expect them to win the state...if Iowa tends towards Bush then I'd say that could be offset with a VP like Warner or another candidate with plenty of experience wooing rural voters, if Iowa tends to the right that could also mean that MO will go again for Bush....Ohio however is the critical state and there a VP like Edwards would be more help for Kerry IMHO, however I reckon that Kerry will stand a stronger chance there where unemployment is height and the repeal of the steel tariffs will hurt Bush than in MO or IA...as for Oregon I doubt it will opt for Bush in a state where environmental concerns are so high a priority Bush doesn’t have a record to be proud of, as with many of the Midwestern states Nader did well here winning 5% of the vote which this time round will mostly go for Kerry again I would imagine that the Democrats in places like Portland will be highly motivated and suburban liberals who stayed home last time will most likely vote this time around but as always its eight months away...any prediction is hazardous... by the way (I know your nor from WV but) how do you see the race in WV going?  

[muon2]

yes but the premise of your post is that currently the polls are showing a dead heat, when if you look at all the polls and especially focus on likely voters there is clearly a current Kerry lead right now. I am not saying that this will last until the election, but right now Kerry has the edge.

Actually, there was no "premise" of any kind...

I provide links to 5 major polls that show the race between even and Bush +2, 1 link that Showed Kerry at +3, and three links that show Kerry +6 to +11

There was no "conclusion" or indeed even a comment, of any kind...  Please point to the part of my post that suggested a premise of some kind....

The ARG (and NPR?) poll, BTW, were Registered, as opposed to likely voters, and the GOP candidate typically (but certainly not always) does 4 points or so better among Likely voters than registered voters.

The actual explanation of the group of 5 polls showing a dead heat, while the other group of 4 polls showing a mid/high single digit lead for Kerry is actually rather simple.

The five polls showing a dead heat all invoke some variation of a constained turnout model, while the other four which show a Kerry lead do not.  

The unconstrained turnout models used by the 4 pro-Kerry polls naturally reflects an energized Democratic base that has just nominated it's candidate and enjoyed the limelight for several months now...

For what little it's worth, I think Kerry is a few points up on Bush right now, however I also think Bush's base support is a lot firmer than Kerry's. (I think my prediction map has a very modest Kerry leads at this point if you count the leaning states)

 The next 6 weeks or so will be critical to see if Kerry can solidify his leaners, or if Bush can pry them loose...

The NPR poll was likely voters, 'all participants were registered voters, who voted or were ineligible to vote in the 2000 presidential election or voted in the 2002 Congressional elections and indicated that they were 'certain' or 'almost certain' to vote in 2004'.

Thank-you - I have not looked at the NPR poll in any detail yet.

I devoted an entire thread for it...you could look at that one for some of the stats I found interesting.

I also found some of their internal findings interesting. However, I didn't find your thread. Can you point me in the right direction?

[Ben.]

I've given up on New Mexico... and have doubts about New Jersey...

Sorry missed that from my earlier post...why NJ...Gore beat Bush by 16% factor in Nader and he beat Bush by 18%!...Al you've usually got a really excellent way of analysing these state by state races but when it comes to NJ I think we should be fine...  

[12th Doctor]

Last time I checked Kerry had a small lead in Minnesota:

Kerry 43%
Bush  41%
Mason Dixon

When was the poll taken...MN a funny one IMHO...both Reps got in in 2002 thanks to liberal indendent runs however i recon while Coleman wont be long for this earth the GOP gov seems to be doing ok...any one from MN got any views on these guys?

What?  Coleman is doing well in Minnestoa.  What are you talking about?
When was the poll taken...MN a funny one IMHO...both Reps got in in 2002 thanks to liberal indendent runs however i recon while Coleman wont be long for this earth the GOP gov seems to be doing ok...any one from MN got any views on these guys?
 

[Reaganfan]

Not anymore, now polls show Kerry trailing by 5 points.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I dunno why I'm worried about NJ... I shouldn't be...