Counties that swung Democratic in 2004 and Republican in 2008

[nclib]

i.e. counties that swung (%age wise) to Kerry and then swung (%age wise) to McCain:

KY (12)   Bath, Carter, Cumberland, Elliott, Green, Jackson, Magoffin, Metcalfe, Morgan, Nicholas, Rowan, Wolfe
OH (9)   Preble, Clark, Trumbull, Columbiana, Jefferson, Belmont, Gallia, Scioto, Lawrence
AR (   Washington, Madison, Newton, Searcy, Perry, Conway, Woodruff, St.Francis
MO (4)   Chariton, Mercer, Putnam, Schuyler
SD (4)   Lyman, Bennett, Jackson, Haakon
NC (3)   Graham, Polk, Yancey
FL (3)   Gadsden, Jefferson, Hamilton
WV (2)   Calhoun, Wetzel
TX (2)   Armstrong, King
AZ (1)   Yavapai
KS (1)   Wallace
MN (1)   Morrison
IA (1)   Clarke
SC (1)   Saluda

Does anyone know the reasons for any such county's swing? One common theme seems to be industrial rust belt counties.

[Cubby]

Arkansas-  Democrats who were mad that Hillary didn't get nominated. AR was one of Kerry's best Southern states in 2004 (though he still lost by 10 points).

Arizona-  (Yavapai)  '04 was a swing of 0.29 points to Kerry, '08 was a swing of 0.98 points to McCain (favorite son effect). These aren't really swings, just statistical flukes.

Texas-  They both had a massive swing to Bush in '00, were basically unchanged in '04 (each less than 2 points to Kerry). The '04 results weren't a real swing, just a re-match of 2000. When you get above 85% at the county-level, its going to swing the other way soon, its tough to maintain that. The few Democrats there must have liked Obama less than Kerry. King County was McCain's best county in the entire country.

Wallace, KS: See Arizona. Although its strange that of all the counties in western KS, it was the only one to have a swing to Kerry in '04.

Morrison, MN: Obama's team didn't campaign enough in Minnesota. All of MN outside the Grand Forks media market had very small swings to him. This is evident in far Western WI too, which I assume gets the same stations as the Twin Cities. I was underwhelmed by Obama's performance in the state.

[Ebowed]

The Florida counties have high black populations.  White voters in these areas (and there are a decent amount, because the Dem% is always higher than the black%) evidently swung against Obama.