Edwards diverted

[J. J.]

MSNBC announce that Edwards will be making previously unscheduled trips to MI and NH.  As these were not previously planned, this may be an indication that Kerry's numbers are dropping in both states.

[Sam Spade]

Interesting...  Sounds eerily familiar to a statement I made last night on another site.

_______________________________________________

"Well, I’m still waiting to see if I can find the Sat.-Sun.-Mon. schedules for each candidate.

That’ll certainly tell us where the problems are, where they think things are in play and what states they think they can pick off.

My gut tells me right now that the Kerry campaign strategy will be to try and hold on to the most dangerous tossups: NM, MN, WI, NH and HA (strangely enough I think it is a true tossup, will try and hold through advertising). MI and PA less so because I think Kerry has larger leads here, I’m curious to see how much Kerry campaigns there in the next week; this will probably tell us something.

I think NV and IA are in the same boat right now; I differ from some people here, but I think it’s going to be extremely hard for Kerry to hold on to IA or pick off NV. CO, AR, WV, etc. are probably just long-shots that won’t change unless the race changes.

And then either pickup OH or FL and I really think OH is the best shot.

Under this strategy, if Kerry wins OH, he wins 277-261. If he wins FL, he wins 284-254.

This is a slightly larger lead than normal but it’s very important, because I still think there’s a good chance he could lose any number of those toss-ups, esp. NM, WI or MN.

Simply put, if you see Kerry campaigning in MI or PA after Friday, he’s toast imo."

______________________________________________

Edwards is not Kerry, of course.  We'll see what happens.

[WalterMitty]

i dont always agree with bill schneider, but he said something today that really makes sense.  he said no candidate has the momentum and the race is just tightening nationally and in the battle ground states.

instead of getting smaller, the number of battleground states seem to be increasing in the final week.

[J. J.]

I'm seeing erosion for Bush in OH.  I'm seeing erosion for Kerry in NJ, NH, MI, and HI.  The DNC just bought $200,000 of air time in HI (CNN).

Bush is also heading for MI, tomorrow.

Edge Bush.

[Sam Spade]

I also think Bush might losing a little ground in MO and WV, but that may mean him going from being up 5-6 points to being up 4-5.

The only state that was not being advertised in before (including MO, AR, WV on the Bush side and NJ, HI on the Kerry side) that I see "serious" advertising being placed in right now is HI.

The AR and WV talk in the WaPo today is all about a couple of 527s putting an ad or two there and the Kerry and the DNC campaign talking about placing ads there soon.

At this point in the campaign, "talk is very, very cheap" and I'll only believe it when I see some physical action or campaigning there at which point I will report it.

Right now, it's just talk to me.

[Sam Spade]

Bush is in MI today.   At the Silverdome in Pontiac, MI.

[WalterMitty]

Bush is in MI today.   At the Silverdome in Pontiac, MI.

another day wasted...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Bush is in MI today.   At the Silverdome in Pontiac, MI.

another day wasted...

Not at all!  MI has an anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot and Bush has a REAL chance of winning it.

[Sam Spade]

He is also in Vienna OH (near Youngstown), Findlay OH, and Lancaster PA per my thread earlier.

Kerry is in Iowa and Minnesota.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=11393.0

[WalterMitty]

Bush is in MI today.   At the Silverdome in Pontiac, MI.

another day wasted...

Not at all!  MI has an anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot and Bush has a REAL chance of winning it.

dont you ever get tired of the gop trying to use bigotry to pull them through the close races?  i meann, it really doesnt bode well for the future of the party.

[elcorazon]

Bush is in MI today.   At the Silverdome in Pontiac, MI.

another day wasted...

Not at all!  MI has an anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot and Bush has a REAL chance of winning it.

Even if he does, this is bad strategy. Bush should focus on OHio & Florida and if he can pull one of them out, he could win; if he pulls out both he DOES win.  Suppose he falls 1% short in Michigan and loses OHio and Florida by less than 1%, where does that leave him?

[opebo]

Bush is in MI today.   At the Silverdome in Pontiac, MI.

another day wasted...

Not at all!  MI has an anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot and Bush has a REAL chance of winning it.

dont you ever get tired of the gop trying to use bigotry to pull them through the close races?  i meann, it really doesnt bode well for the future of the party.

jmfcst is the bigot those amendments are aimed at.  WalterMitty, you and all other tolerant Republicans should consider following me to the other side - they're not so bad.

[WalterMitty]

Bush is in MI today.   At the Silverdome in Pontiac, MI.

another day wasted...

Not at all!  MI has an anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot and Bush has a REAL chance of winning it.

dont you ever get tired of the gop trying to use bigotry to pull them through the close races?  i meann, it really doesnt bode well for the future of the party.

jmfcst is the bigot those amendments are aimed at.  WalterMitty, you and all other tolerant Republicans should consider following me to the other side - they're not so bad.

i dont think i could ever become a democrat.  but i have considered, very seriously, changing my registration to independent.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Bush is in MI today.   At the Silverdome in Pontiac, MI.

another day wasted...

Not at all!  MI has an anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot and Bush has a REAL chance of winning it.

Even if he does, this is bad strategy. Bush should focus on OHio & Florida and if he can pull one of them out, he could win; if he pulls out both he DOES win.  Suppose he falls 1% short in Michigan and loses OHio and Florida by less than 1%, where does that leave him?

There is only so much benefit that can be gained from camping out in one state.

If Bush wins FL, he only needs 15 EVs from OH (20), MI(17), WI(10), MN(10),IA(7), OR(7), NM(5), NH(4)...

If Bush wins OH, he only needs 22 EVs from FL (27), MI(17), WI(10), MN(10),IA(7), OR(7), NM(5), NH(4)...

If Bush wins MI, he only needs 25 EVs from FL (27), OH(20), WI(10), MN(10),IA(7), OR(7), NM(5), NH(4)...

Bush's path is much easier than Kerry's.  Kerry basically has to sweep FL, OH, PA, and MI.

[Sam Spade]

From NRO's Battlegrounders web page:

http://www.nationalreview.com/battleground/battleground.asp

NEW HAMPSHIRE: INTERNAL NUMBERS MUST BE TIGHT [Mike Tuffin 10/27 04:00 PM]

Manchester's WMUR-TV is reporting that Kerry will make one last visit to New Hampshire on Sunday. This would be Kerry's second trip to the state in a week. President Bush will campaign in Manchester and Portsmouth on Friday. New Hampshire offers the fewest electoral votes (4) of any battleground state, and the fact that both candidates are devoting precious time here in the closing days can only mean the campaigns' internal polling shows the race is a toss-up.

[Sam Spade]

More from NRO's The Corner:

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp

A FLORIDA INDICATOR TO WATCH [Rich Lowry]
There's been some talk of Kerry “pulling out” of Florida, which I find hard to believe. Geraghty has discussed this and tried to tamp it down. But here's something to watch. My understanding is that as of yesterday Bush was scheduled to spend all day Monday in Florida, but that may now be up in the air. If Bush doesn't go there Monday, it could be a sign that he has opened up a lead in the state.
Posted at 03:13 PM

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

jmfcst is the bigot those amendments are aimed at.  WalterMitty, you and all other tolerant Republicans should consider following me to the other side - they're not so bad.

If you want to label someone, then put a label on Jesus.

[opebo]

jmfcst is the bigot those amendments are aimed at.  WalterMitty, you and all other tolerant Republicans should consider following me to the other side - they're not so bad.

If you want to label someone, then put a label on Jesus.

Ok - Figment.

[A18]

lol. Marriage is bigotry to these people...

[No more McShame]

Bush is in MI today.   At the Silverdome in Pontiac, MI.

another day wasted...

Not at all!  MI has an anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot and Bush has a REAL chance of winning it.

dont you ever get tired of the gop trying to use bigotry to pull them through the close races?  i meann, it really doesnt bode well for the future of the party.

I don't agree with the President's stand on gay marriage, but I don't equate marriage to bigotry.

[Dave from Michigan]

I don't know if Michigan will go republican I still think Kerry by at least 3%.  Here at the republican headquarters where I volunteer they say it's close, but it's not like these people have seen interal polls or anything.  They say we are doing better in wayne county than in 2000, but I doubt it.

[dougrhess]

I'm seeing erosion for Bush in OH.  I'm seeing erosion for Kerry in NJ, NH, MI, and HI.  The DNC just bought $200,000 of air time in HI (CNN).

Bush is also heading for MI, tomorrow.

Edge Bush.

I think the media attention on HI made it impossible for the Dems not to spend some money there without looking to take the state for granted and thus get a mountain of resentment out of a mole hill of a news article. In anycase, both parties can afford to cough up $200,000 without thinking about it.

I think Clinton going to AR is the bigger oddity, but I guess he knows the state better than me! 

[J. J.]

I think the media attention on HI made it impossible for the Dems not to spend some money there without looking to take the state for granted and thus get a mountain of resentment out of a mole hill of a news article. In anycase, both parties can afford to cough up $200,000 without thinking about it.

I think Clinton going to AR is the bigger oddity, but I guess he knows the state better than me! 

I can pretty much guess that they are not going to run ads just because of media.  Something opened up in HI.