Iraq: Electoral Commission Upholds Allawi's Victory

[Frodo]

Allawi’s Victory in Iraq Election Sets Up Period of Uncertainty

By TIMOTHY WILLIAMS and ROD NORDLAND
Published: March 26, 2010

BAGHDAD — The secular party of Ayad Allawi, a former interim prime minister once derided as an American puppet, won a wafer-thin victory in Iraq’s election, setting the stage for a protracted period of political uncertainty and possible violence that could threaten plans to withdraw American troops.

The outcome, announced Friday, was immediately challenged by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki and his supporters in the State of Law coalition, who hurled accusations of fraud and made vague references to the prime minister’s power as commander in chief.

Several parties have cried fraud as their fortunes waxed or waned in the slow vote count, an ominous reminder of an Iraqi political culture where winning is everything and compromise elusive. Western observers and an independent election commission said they saw no signs of widespread fraud. Mr. Allawi galvanized the votes of millions of Sunnis — who boycotted the last parliamentary elections in 2005 — to build his edge of 91 to 89 seats over his nearest rival, Mr. Maliki. That falls far short of the majority of 163 of the 325 seats in Parliament that he needs to form a government.

Iraqi political experts interviewed Friday doubted that Mr. Allawi would succeed in assembling a governing coalition. But even if he did, they said it would take at least until July, possibly even longer, a potentially destabilizing stretch in which a disgruntled Mr. Maliki would serve as caretaker prime minister of the nation.

In a statement that seemed to reflect American concerns about the potential for violence, United States Ambassador Christopher R. Hill and Gen. Ray Odierno, the top American military commander in Iraq, praised “the overall integrity of the election” and called on political parties to “refrain from inflammatory rhetoric or action.” There had been hope that the election would spell an end to Iraq’s sectarian politics. And though the balloting shattered the sectarian political template that brought Mr. Maliki to power in 2005, when an alliance of Shiite parties dominated the election, the outcome re-emphasized the country’s sectarian and regional divides and the deepening schism between Arabs and Kurds.

The vote in part reflected dissatisfaction with Mr. Maliki’s ability to provide security, government services, and jobs. Mr. Allawi appealed to Iraqis tired of the past domination of Iraqi politics by religious parties; others responded to his image as the sort of strongman leader they have lacked since Saddam Hussein was ousted.

Reactions in Iraq ranged from jubilation to fear. Some people partied in the streets, honking horns and firing weapons in the air; others stockpiled food in case of violence and renewed curfews.

[Iosif]

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Just like the 2008 Presidential election then.

[dead0man]

Firing weapons in the air in jubilation happened in our last Presidential election?  I thought that was a White Trash (4th of July, NewYears Eve) and Arab (everytime something good happens...a son is born, the national soccer team wins something....that kind of thing) thing.

[minionofmidas]

Sunni turnout was higher, and the Shi'a vote was fairly evenly split (25.8 for Dawa with minor allies, 19.4 for SCIRI+Sadr with minor allies). The two Shi'a religious blocs together are just short of a majority of the seats. It's fairly insulting to their readers' intellect to refer to the front Allawi led here as a "secular coalition", anyways. Not that I'm not surprised or anything, but...

[Frodo]

After two months, despite all of Maliki's attempts to invalidate Allawi's victory, the electoral commission has upheld the election results:

Recount in Iraq Preserves Victory for Maliki Rival

By ANTHONY SHADID
Published: May 16, 2010
 
BAGHDAD — A weeks-long dispute over the counting of ballots in Iraq’s landmark parliamentary elections in March came to a tentative end Sunday, with the country’s election commission saying that a partial recount had preserved the narrow victory of the leading rival to Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki.

The announcement removed a stumbling block in the long-delayed process of forming a new government that will preside over Iraq as the American military withdraws. With the recount over, the country’s highest court can begin ratifying the results, a crucial step in opening the way for negotiations over the next prime minister.

“We hope that no one else appeals so that we can be done with this,” Qassim al-Abboudi, a spokesman for the commission, told a news conference.

Mr. Maliki’s electoral bloc had demanded the recount after finishing narrowly behind a largely Sunni and secular coalition led by Ayad Allawi, a former interim prime minister. His supporters claimed that numerous cases of fraud had tarnished the vote and that a recount might reverse as many 20 seats, making Mr. Maliki’s list the winner.

But in the news conference Sunday, Mr. Abboudi said the recount of votes in the populous province around the capital Baghdad did not change the initial results. Two candidates lost their seats to candidates from the same party, leaving the breakdown the same as it was in March — 91 seats for Mr. Allawi, 89 for Mr. Maliki.

Mr. Maliki’s supporters suggested the prime minister would abide by the recount, which found no widespread fraud. Mr. Maliki “wants to speed up the political process,” said a spokesman, Ali al-Mousawi. “As far as I know, he will respect the results.”

The newly conciliatory position of Mr. Maliki reflected the changed reality on the ground. This month, he formed a post-election alliance with another Shiite bloc, making it the largest coalition in parliament and recalibrating the political calculus here. It also made Mr. Allawi’s wafer-thin lead in seats over Mr. Maliki more symbolic than practical, since most politicians believe the new, broader Shiite alliance will take the lead in naming a prime minister. Together, the Shiite bloc is just four seats short of a majority in the 325-member parliament, effectively making the results of the recount academic.