A Real-Estate Roller Coaster.

[phk]

The Yale economist Robert Shiller has indexed American housing prices going back to 1890.



You know how people like to say that such-and-such experience “was a real roller-coaster ride”? Now turn each time series graph into a roller-coaster ride.

Well, the blogger Richard Hodge at SpeculativeBubble.com wanted to see if housing prices really were a roller-coaster ride. So he plotted Shiller’s inflation-adjusted index onto a roller-coaster video ride.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2757699799528285056

[Bo]

I saw that chart before.

[phk]

I saw that chart before.

The Case-Shiller Index?

Anyway just realized these roller coaster videos are a great way to learn/teach Time Series analysis.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

That was actually quite interesting, but I'd like to see that through 2009 and we where we'd be at.

[phk]

That was actually quite interesting, but I'd like to see that through 2009 and we where we'd be at.

I think it may have been slightly incorrect. It showed a slow movement upward from 1999-2001, when I think prices actually had a slow dip.

It's a great way to learn the intuition behind Calculus as well, I just realized, but kind of indirectly.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

That was actually quite interesting, but I'd like to see that through 2009 and we where we'd be at.

I think it may have been slightly incorrect. It showed a slow movement upward from 1999-2001, when I think prices actually had a slow dip.

It's a great way to learn the intuition behind Calculus as well, I just realized, but kind of indirectly.

Integrals?

[phk]

That was actually quite interesting, but I'd like to see that through 2009 and we where we'd be at.

I think it may have been slightly incorrect. It showed a slow movement upward from 1999-2001, when I think prices actually had a slow dip.

It's a great way to learn the intuition behind Calculus as well, I just realized, but kind of indirectly.

Integrals?

Derivatives

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

That was actually quite interesting, but I'd like to see that through 2009 and we where we'd be at.

I think it may have been slightly incorrect. It showed a slow movement upward from 1999-2001, when I think prices actually had a slow dip.

It's a great way to learn the intuition behind Calculus as well, I just realized, but kind of indirectly.

Integrals?

Derivatives

OK - same principle, just the other way around.

[Torie]

Real estate prices have become more volatile since about 1970, due to government actions, including big changes in tax policy, changes in land regulation, changes in building codes, changes in environmental rules, changes in mortgage loan subsidies, and on and on. When Prop 13 based in California in 1978, real estate prices in about 3 years almost doubled for example.

It has been more wild in those places which have done more of this, and have natural land shortages, and population pressures, and of course more volatile economic ups and downs (California had a big down when the defense and aerospace industry largely collapsed in SoCal due to labor costs, and the end of the Cold War in the early 1990's, which of course also over time removed a relatively conservative voting block which influenced California politics as well).

[Beet]

That was actually quite interesting, but I'd like to see that through 2009 and we where we'd be at.

I think it may have been slightly incorrect. It showed a slow movement upward from 1999-2001, when I think prices actually had a slow dip.

It's a great way to learn the intuition behind Calculus as well, I just realized, but kind of indirectly.

It was straight up from 1999 to 2001.

There were regional rises in prices in the 1980s which translated into a relatively slight but at the time seemingly significant rise in national average prices both after the 1975 recovery and after the 1982 recovery. But up until the mid 1990s there was no dislocation in national prices anything near what was seen since then. The number of different types of loans also exploded around then, and will really make your head spin if you haven't had personal experience or work in the industry.